The Intriguing Djokovic-Federer Rivalry

By Owen Lewis

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are two of the greatest tennis players of all time. They have 37 major titles between them, and their prolific rivalry is second on the men’s side in terms of volume of matches (Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have played more).

They weave fascinating patterns when playing, with Federer often trying to work his way to the net and using his slice to keep Djokovic off balance, while Djokovic attempts to attack Federer’s weaker backhand wing and engage in sapping baseline rallies. The latter strategy has proved to be slightly more successful, as Djokovic leads the rivalry 27-23.

Behind these numbers lie extremely close contests and remarkable statistics. Djokovic leads their rivalry in majors 11-6, and has won three matches from double match point down, including the 2019 Wimbledon final. Federer won four of their first five meetings on the biggest stage, but since then the story of the rivalry in majors has been Djokovic claiming the biggest points and the matches.

Federer, despite earning more break point chances, has actually broken less often than Djokovic when they clash in a major. Djokovic has made the most of more of his opportunities, as he did at the 2015 U.S. Open final: converting six of 13 break points to Federer’s four of 23.

Though Federer is more than five years older than Djokovic, he has remained competitive in their matches. He has won at least a set in all but three of their meetings in majors, and actually leads the rivalry in best-of-three contests: 17-16.

The rivalry is very close across all three surfaces. Djokovic leads 3-1 on grass and 20-18 on hard courts, and they are tied 4-4 on clay. However, Djokovic has a 13-6 edge in tournament finals. He is, as reflected by the break point statistics above, better in pressured situations than Federer, and is an excellent big match player as well.

Djokovic can execute his desired strategy in big moments more reliably and effectively than Federer. In the 2019 Wimbledon final, Djokovic won three tiebreaks, during which many baseline exchanges took place. Such patterns allow Djokovic to take control of points with his pace redirection and safe yet penetrating groundstrokes, and expose Federer’s fragile backhand.

Above: consecutive points from the crucial third-set tiebreak in Novak Djokovic’s 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) win over Roger Federer in the 2019 Wimbledon final. Note the placement of Djokovic’s shots in the second point; while they are aggressive enough to take control of the point, they are relatively safe in that they’re not particularly close to the lines. Djokovic’s ability to play points in this manner has been instrumental in him dominating his recent tiebreaks with Federer.

Federer is long past his prime, while Djokovic is yet to decline as much. The latter has dominated the second phase of the rivalry, boasting a 21-10 record against Federer since the start of 2011. This is likely due to a combination of Djokovic ascending to his best form and Federer’s age-related decline, as well as Djokovic establishing his superiority on big points.

A recent trend in the rivalry is Djokovic’s winning streak in tiebreaks. He has won the last six, beginning with a tight breaker in the first set of his 2018 Paris semifinal with Federer. Djokovic saved a set point on his way to winning the tiebreak 8-6, and since has lost just 16 points in the next five breakers. In the last four, he has made zero unforced errors.

Federer’s game is higher-risk than Djokovic’s. With Djokovic refusing to make an unforced error in their tiebreaks, all the pressure falls on Federer to win points with winners or by forcing errors. At the 2020 Australian Open, Djokovic won a first-set tiebreak 7-1, with Federer striking a forehand winner to score his lone point. With Federer’s margin for error in tiebreaks being virtually nonexistent, his best hope to win sets against Djokovic is before the score gets to 6-all.

As is the case in virtually all rivalries, the winner of the first set sees their chances to win the match vastly increase. But the opening frame is much more important to Federer than it is to Djokovic. The leader in the rivalry has beaten Federer from a set down seven times, including twice in majors, while Federer has gotten the best of Djokovic after losing the first set just once: in 2014.

Even before 2011, the year in which Djokovic rose to the peak of his powers and began to turn around the rivalry, Djokovic had beaten Federer from a set down three times, including in the semifinals of the 2010 U.S. Open. Federer’s skills as a frontrunner are often spoken of, but in this matchup it’s Djokovic who is tougher to beat from a set down. Since Federer’s comeback win in the 2014 Dubai final (he won 3-6, 6-3, 6-2) seems to be something of a one-off, Federer virtually needs to take the first set in his matches with Djokovic to win the match.

With Federer standing at 38 years old and recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, it’s unlikely that he will rebound from his deficit in the rivalry. But if he is to, he has to be very opportunistic. His challenges are more mental than physical; Federer managed to play for four hours and 56 minutes last year in the Wimbledon final, keeping the match very close. Yet he consistently loses most of the big points when he plays Djokovic, and losing the first set against him is practically a death warrant to Federer’s chances of winning the match.

As for Djokovic, if he continues to win the lion’s share of the big points against Federer, he will continue to win most of their matches. He can even afford lapses, such as the second set of the 2019 Wimbledon final, as long as he is sharp in important moments.

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What Makes a Tennis Match Great?

By Owen Lewis

In the gallery of epic tennis matches lie contests of diverse length, competitiveness, and quality. The Nadal-Federer 2008 Wimbledon final is renowned for not just the eye-popping winners, but for the two rain delays that extended the match, the fact that it ended in darkness, and the historical significance. The men’s 2012 Australian Open final redefined the limits of physical endurance in tennis as Novak Djokovic overcame exhaustion and Rafael Nadal to win an impossibly attritional five-hour, 53-minute battle. The 2018 Australian Open semifinal between Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber is of legendary status for its third set, a frame of heavenly quality in which both players saved a pair of match points before Halep edged out her rival.

What do these classics have in common? The first answer that comes to mind is that they are all extremely close, with the results hinging on one or two key points. But this criterion could also apply to a match in which errors were made on every point. The quality of the tennis is crucial, not just in terms of how many winners were hit but relating to rally intensity as well. In the Halep-Kerber semifinal, there was one more unforced error than winner between the players, but such was the length and intensity of the exchanges that this stat loses a lot of weight.

Some prefer the first-strike tennis that is seen frequently at Wimbledon, while others are partial to the longer rallies that Roland-Garros gives way to, so in that sense quality can be subjective.

A strange commonality between many fantastic matches are small chokes. At first this seems ridiculous, as a choke is a dip in level, but often times a lapse from one player will spark a spirited comeback by the other. The aforementioned 2008 Wimbledon final and 2012 Australian Open final both featured mini-chokes by the eventual winner that greatly increased the overall quality of the match. In the former, Nadal led two sets to one and 5-2 in the fourth-set tiebreak but made consecutive errors on serve, allowing Federer to get a foothold in the breaker. While the two points were lost on unforced mistakes, it lengthened the tiebreak, allowing the Center Court crowd to witness perhaps the finest ever back-to-back passing shots a few minutes later, as well as an absorbing fifth set. Djokovic led the 2012 final in Melbourne two sets to one and held a 5-3 advantage in the tiebreak, but made three forehand unforced errors that helped Nadal win the fourth set. A minor choke, yes, yet it allowed an 80-minute fifth set that made the match the longest major final ever. The Halep-Kerber semifinal saw both players make an unforced error on match point in a game that they would end up losing, but this contributed to the drama and the length of the third set. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitová clashed for possession of the 2019 Australian Open title, and Osaka had three championship points in the second set, yet couldn’t take any, failed to serve out the match, and lost the frame. Yet she rebounded to win the third, thereby making the final an example of her mental fortitude.

Another feature of great contests is a simultaneously high level of play from the participants. The 2019 Wimbledon final between Djokovic and Federer saw Djokovic lapse significantly in the second and fourth sets, while Federer was unable to find his best level in the three tiebreaks that took place during the final. While there was some high-quality play from both, the unevenly strong tennis was significant enough that this match is generally not considered one of the best ever, though it did take nearly five hours to crown a winner.

Most matches heralded as the best ever contain at least one legend of the game, often two. This is partly because the strongest players are the most capable of producing high-quality tennis, and partly because matches with lower-ranked players get less attention from fans and pundits. Yet having two all-time greats isn’t a requirement for a spectacle. Fernando Verdasco, an ATP player that has never made it inside the top five, took part in one of the finest matches ever, a 2009 Australian Open semifinal with Nadal (Nadal’s presence in many of the best men’s contests deserves a mention, his capacity to play epic matches is probably unparalleled on the ATP). Verdasco went for broke from the outset, clocking 95 winners across a five-hour, 14-minute battle that saw several amazing rallies (he would end up losing 6-4 in the fifth. The performance was likely his finest). Anyone can take part in an epic; it depends on level of play, not status.

The atmosphere and crowd at a match can contribute to its place in the history books. While both are unrelated to the forehands and backhands struck by the athletes, crowd support can energize a player. The 2001 Wimbledon final between Pat Rafter and Goran Ivanišević is known as “People’s Monday”. An excellent match in its own right, the final was bolstered by the buzzing crowd, many of them Croatian or Australian and ecstatic to see their man in the Wimbledon final. The five-set battle is also remembered for Ivanišević’s improbable triumph; he entered the tournament courtesy of a wild card and was ranked outside the top 100.

A great tennis match defines a variety of contests, and has many criteria, yet failing to meet one or two doesn’t often disqualify a match from being great. There have been epics of myriad types in the past, and there will surely be many more in the future.

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Rafael Nadal Adds Another Piece to His Legacy With 12th French Open Title

By Owen Lewis

2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2017. 2018. And now 2019. Today, Rafael Nadal of Mallorca, Spain claimed his 12th French Open title and 18th major by beating Dominic Thiem of Austria 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. Back in 2005, Nadal turned 19 during the event, beating then-top-ranked Roger Federer in the semifinals and Mariano Puerta in the final. Now, Nadal is 33, but his dominance at Roland Garros is seemingly immortal. He dropped just two sets all tournament, beating his great rival Federer in a lopsided semifinal. Thiem, a 25-year-old heralded as the heir to Nadal’s clay domain, had a much more difficult path to the final. In the early rounds, he dropped sets to lower-ranked opponents such as Tommy Paul. Thiem hit his stride during the business end of the tournament, though, beating Gael Monfils in the fourth round and Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals without dropping a set. His semifinal, though, was nothing short of an attritional war. Thiem’s opponent? World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, the winner of the previous three majors. In a two-day match halted multiple times by rain and harsh weather, Thiem topped the world’s best 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in a match full of twists and turns. After failing to serve out the match at 5-3 in the fifth, the Austrian held his nerve, breaking the Djokovic serve with a 93 mph forehand winner to seal what was most likely the biggest win of his career. His reward, or punishment, depending on how you look at it, was a clash with the King of Clay- who had crushed Thiem 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2018 French Open final.

Because of weather delays, Thiem had played three consecutive days before the final, and the match against Nadal, the two-time defending champion, would make it a fourth. His tussle with Djokovic consisted of some brutal rallies, lasting over four hours in total, so there were doubts about the Austrian’s fitness going into the final. Nadal, on the other hand, was economical in reaching the final, and had a day off after dispatching Federer in the semis. If the Spaniard hadn’t already been the favorite, these circumstances pushed it beyond doubt.

Nadal, serving to open the final, struck a clean forehand winner on the first point of the match. Both players held serve through the first four games, then, with Nadal serving at 2-2 and 30-all, a thrilling exchange ensued. Thiem chased down a drop shot, and a high-energy series of Thiem volleys and attempted Nadal passing shots followed- eventually, the Austrian ventured back to the baseline, cracking a forehand winner. On the first break point of the match, Thiem pushed Nadal around the court, eventually drawing a lob and putting away an overhead smash to seal the first break of the match. Thiem was playing some fantastic defense, at times forcing Nadal to hit two or three overheads to win the point. High quality exchanges were frequent, with both players taking part in some bruising, physical rallies. Crucially, the defending champion hit back immediately after being broken, opening up a love-40 advantage and taking his second break point to restore parity at 3-all. The next game would prove to be the most decisive of the first set. Nadal reached advantage, but Thiem hit back, at one point returning an overhead and a drop volley before flicking a winner down the line. The Austrian had a break point in the game, but it was quickly stamped out by the great clay- courter. Nadal secured the hold with a darting backhand winner down the line, taking a 4-3 lead. Thiem’s level dipped slightly in the next game: down 15-30, he attempted a drop shot, only to see Nadal’s likeminded riposte softly bounce in front of him. The Spaniard would go on to break, and served out the set, sealing it 6-3.

At the start of the second set, Nadal stormed through several easy service games, and there was a feeling that Thiem could be drained after losing such a physical opening set. The Austrian managed to take care of his game on serve, though, delivering easy holds of his own with big serves and forehands. Nadal eventually had to serve to stay in the set down 4-5, and did so, holding to love with a sharply angled inside-out forehand winner. At 5-all, Thiem hit a precise backhand winner and an accurate smash, holding easily for 6-5. It seemed that the set was heading for a tiebreak, but Nadal played perhaps his loosest game of the match- after hitting a beautiful volley for 15-love, consecutive unforced errors handed his younger opponent the set, 7-5. At one set all, Nadal’s reign suddenly seemed slightly in doubt.

The champion recognized the potential swing in momentum, and jumped on Thiem immediately at the start of the third set. Nadal broke to love in the first game of the set, following it up with an easy hold. With Thiem serving down 0-2 and 15-40, he hit a huge serve, then took a massive cut at a forehand, sending it to Nadal’s own forehand corner. Nadal had guessed the correct side, though, and stroked a forehand winner down the line to break again. The Spaniard’s net game was perhaps as good as we’ve ever seen it, at one point hitting an incredible stretch volley that bounced on Thiem’s side, then bounced back and hit the net, so heavy was it with backspin. Thiem may have suffered a dip in form, but Nadal showcased exactly why he had won 11 French Open titles, moving Thiem back and forth across the baseline and charging to the net, hitting a couple spectacular volleys. The Spaniard utterly dominated the third set, winning sixteen of the first seventeen points of the set, charging into a 4-0 lead in what seemed like five minutes. Thiem managed to hold serve for 4-1, but Nadal broke once again, seizing the third set 6-1.

It was crucial that Thiem make a good start to the fourth set in order to stop the slide in momentum, and he forced a break point in Nadal’s first service game. It was saved in typical style, however, with the Spaniard charging forward to hammer an inside-out forehand winner. He then held serve with a volley winner, and broke Thiem’s serve in the next game to take a 2-0 lead in the fourth set. The Austrian continued to fight, earning another break point in the next game, but strong offensive play from Nadal helped him to hold for 3-0. The champion’s level was peaking, and some dazzling shots rocketed Nadal to a love-40 advantage on Thiem’s next service game. Impressively, the Austrian saved all three break points and did so with three winners, spanking two aces and putting away a forehand. Thiem managed to hold serve, but there was no stopping the 11-time champion, who broke again to grab a 5-1 lead. Serving to extend history, Nadal stormed into a 40-15 lead. He spurned the first match point with an errant forehand, but there was no denying the Spaniard on the second. Thiem hit just long on a forehand return, and Nadal collapsed on the surface that has given him so much success over the years.

So, a remarkable 12th victory at Roland-Garros for Rafael Nadal. What more can be said about his godlike status at the major? He has lost twice at the French Open, in 2009 and 2015. His record is 93-2. His aura at the French Open is bordering on truly invincible. Today’s victory marks his 18th major, two short of Roger Federer’s men’s record of 20. There will almost surely be more French Open titles, and Wimbledon in in a few weeks- if Nadal can continue this rich vein of form, a new men’s grand slam record could be on the way.

A Look Back: Nadal vs. Verdasco, 2009 Australian Open Semifinal

By Owen Lewis

The 2009 Australian Open was one of the greatest slams ever, in terms of overall quality. And no match produced more drama than the all-Spaniard semifinal between top-seeded Nadal and the 14th seed, Verdasco. Though the tournament is perhaps better remembered for its five-set, four-hour final (I won’t tell you who wins yet!), this match was arguably closer and of higher quality. Coming into the match, Nadal had won two majors the previous year and had taken the No. 1 ranking from Federer, beating him in a Wimbledon final of the highest quality. But Nadal hadn’t yet won on the hard courts Down Under or at Flushing Meadows. He was showing progress, though, making the semifinals at the U.S. Open the previous year. And here again he found himself at the same stage of a hard court grand slam against Verdasco. Going into the match, the top seed hadn’t dropped a single set, while Verdasco dropped sets to Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. So Nadal was the clear favorite to win, with Roger Federer waiting in the final for a potential rematch of the Wimbledon 2008 final. But Verdasco would strike an extraordinarily high number of winners during the match, pushing his countryman to the limits. Let’s take a look at the match.  

Side note: this is an incredibly tense and exciting match. I highly recommend watching highlights- here’s a link to a decent video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWyvSQ7pUvM

First Set: 7-6 (4) Verdasco

Verdasco served first, and Nadal would save a break point in the fourth game when Verdasco hit a smash long. But the lower seed was striking his forehand beautifully, and the world No. 1 found himself serving at 4-5, love-30 at the business end of the set. Nadal managed to close out the game, then pressured Verdasco’s serve at 5-all, gaining a break point. The underdog wiped out the break point with a big serve, and Nadal held to force a first set tiebreak. At 1-all in the breaker, Nadal, who generally hugs the baseline, came to net and hit a beautiful drop volley. The points went with serve until Nadal served at 4-5 down. After a brief rally, Verdasco attempted a backhand down the line. The ball clipped the top of the net and stopped dead on Nadal’s side, giving the lower-ranked Spaniard a 6-4 lead and two set points. And Verdasco took the set at the first time of asking, hammering away an overhead to take a surprise lead.

Second Set: 6-4 Nadal

At the start of the second set, the two Spaniards traded easy holds until 3-all, when Verdasco took a love-30 lead on the top-ranked Nadal’s serve. But Nadal escaped the pressured situation, then held several break points in Verdasco’s service game at 3-4. Again, the danger was stamped out, with no breaks up to this point in the match. But the defining moment in this set, and maybe even the match, came with Verdasco serving at 4-5 and deuce. An incredible rally ensued, with Verdasco hitting a bullet backhand down the line and a viciously angled forehand. But Nadal, defending exceptionally well, recovered to hit the shot of the match: running down a Verdasco slice loaded with sidespin, Nadal ripped a “banana” forehand winner down the line. This shot gave Nadal momentum, and he evened the match at one set all when Verdasco hit long on the next point. They would play best of three sets for a berth in the final.

Third Set: 7-6 (2) Nadal

The third set started strongly, with both players ending rallies with one winner after another. And it was Nadal who secured with first break, hitting a curling forehand pass down the line to take a 2-0 lead. At this point it seemed the more accomplished Spaniard might run away with the match, but Verdasco had other ideas. He broke back immediately to love, hitting a forehand return winner and a brutally precise backhand down the line. After holding his own serve, he then had a chance to break Nadal again and seize control of the set, but hit a forehand return long. In the following game, Nadal took the advantage again, breaking for a 4-2 lead when his countryman hit a forehand wide. But again, Verdasco refused to let the set get away and broke back immediately, hitting two more unreachable backhand winners down the line. From here, both players took care of matters on their own serves, and another tiebreak ensued. Verdasco hit two winners early in the tiebreak, but Nadal was the steadier player and took a 5-2 lead, with two serves coming. On the first, he hit a sharply angled inside-out forehand winner, and a curving ace down the middle on the second. The No. 1 seed beat his chest and roared. He had a two-sets-to-one lead.

Fourth Set: 7-6 (1) Verdasco

With Nadal up two sets to one, the pressure was on Verdasco, but he served incredibly well in the fourth set. Nadal handled his business as well, and the set went to a tiebreak. One of the most exciting moments of the set came with Nadal serving at 3-4, 40-30. After running down two bullet forehands from Verdasco, Nadal, barely getting to the next shot, tossed up a short lob. Instead of hitting a forehand, Verdasco squatted down and hit an overhead as hard as he could. Nadal, sprinting across the court, somehow managed to get it back, and then, when Verdasco hit a crosscourt forehand, passed him at the net. Nadal raised a fist as the crowd exploded, and the two players made eye contact and grinned after the point. On the first point of the tiebreak, after a longish rally, Verdasco hit just about the sharpest angled forehand I’ve ever seen. Nadal, running to reach the ball, ran wider than the umpire’s chair and sliced it back, but Verdasco put away a winner. In this tiebreak, Verdasco’s level hit the stratosphere. On his way to a 6-0 lead, he hit two forehand winners down the line, both on Nadal’s serve, and a sharply angled volley winner. The only point Verdasco lost in the tiebreak was off a rather wild forehand return while up 6-0. But on the next point, the 14th seed banged down an unreturnable serve to take the set, yelling and beating his chest in triumph. The match was even.

Fifth Set

Starting the fifth set, Nadal held, then reached break point on Verdasco’s serve by swatting away an overhead. The chance went begging when the top seed hit an attempted forehand pass inches wide, and he covered his face in anguish. He hit back with a backhand winner, but Verdasco immediately wiped out the break point with an ace. A few easy holds followed until Verdasco’s service game at 2-3. Nadal earned another break point, but a service winner erased the danger. The world No. 1 had been holding easily, but at 4-all, he fell behind love-30. Nadal is a great fighter, though, and evened the score at 30-all before hitting a volley winner and closing out the game. With Verdasco serving to stay in the match at 4-5, on the first point, Verdasco hit to all corners of the court, but Nadal defended brilliantly. Finally Verdasco missed. He lost the next point as well, hitting a forehand long, then sent down a double fault: 0-40 and three match points. At this point, Nadal actually started to cry into the towel. But it wasn’t over- Verdasco saved the first two match points with swing volleys. Still 30-40 down, he double faulted again to lose the match. Immediately, Nadal fell flat on his back in triumph while his countryman fell to his knees. After hugging his drained opponent, Nadal knelt down and thrust his arms towards the sky. After five hours and fourteen minutes, Rafael Nadal had made his first Australian Open final: a rematch against Roger Federer.

The Aftermath

Despite being drained from the longest AO match to date, Nadal would go on to play another five-setter against Federer in the final. And despite a Federer comeback from two sets to one down, Nadal would take the fifth set decisively to win the 2009 Australian Open (Score: 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-2). He wouldn’t win another slam that year, but in 2010 he won the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open, with the latter wrapping up his career Grand Slam (winning at least one slam at every major). The 2009 Australian Open marked his sixth career slam. He now has seventeen, and is the No. 2 player in the world, ten years later. He is the favorite to win the 2019 French Open, and is a contender at almost every major as of the past couple years. Only Roger Federer, with 20 slams, leads the Spaniard on the all-time leaderboard.

Things didn’t end so well for Verdasco. Although like Nadal, he is still playing, his ranking hovers around the 30 mark. But tragically, his career has been marred with mistakes in pressured moments, like the two double faults in the last game of this match. At this year’s Australian Open, he took a two-set lead against last year’s finalist, Marin Cilic. Verdasco was hitting huge forehands and playing beautifully. Cilic took the third set, but the fourth went to a tiebreak. The Spaniard had a match point, which Cilic erased with a powerful serve, but another wasn’t long in coming- this time on Verdasco’s serve. He double-faulted. From there, Cilic took the tiebreak and the fifth set. Since losing the epic match to Nadal, Verdasco has struggled to produce the same level. He hasn’t made it back to the semifinals of a slam since that fateful loss to Nadal. Rafael Nadal is a household name. He’s probably the second-greatest tennis player ever. If you ask someone about Verdasco, even a tennis fan, they might not know the name. But for five hours and fourteen minutes on a late night Down Under in 2009, Fernando Verdasco captivated the tennis world.

Thanks for reading! Email me at owenlewis11801@gmail.com with any questions or feedback.