By Owen Lewis

Perhaps the most-talked about aspect of tennis is the debate over which member of the Big Three will be crowned the greatest male tennis player of all time. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal are battling for eternal glory; their résumés are distinctly different and similar at the same time, and it’s been a question for a while now of whose claim is the best. I’m going to analyze their greatest accomplishments and compare them, as it stands on May 8th, 2020.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has won 19 majors, second among the legendary trio. An astounding 12 French Open titles belong to the Spaniard; he shattered the previous men’s record of six, held by Björn Borg, in 2012, and broke Margaret Court’s record of 11 titles at a single major in 2019. He has won at least two slams on each surface (2 on grass, 5 on hard court, and 12 on clay), owns 35 Masters 1000 titles (a men’s record), and is the only member of the Big Three to have won an Olympic gold medal in singles (he beat Djokovic in the semifinals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics).

He leads his head-to-head with Federer 24-16, and 10-4 in majors, and while he trails Djokovic 26-29 he has won 9 of their 15 meetings in slams. Combined, he emerged victorious in 19 of his 29 matches in majors against the other two, by far the best record of the trio.

Nadal has the best winning percentage in majors of the trio (and of every active male player).

Nadal has defended his French Open title nine times, more times than either Djokovic or Federer have won a single major.

From 2005 to 2014, Nadal went 18-5 in major meetings against Federer and Djokovic. He is the only member of the Big Three to have won three slams on three different surfaces in the same calendar year.

Nadal is the only male player ever to win hard court, grass court, and clay court majors in the same calendar year (in 2010, he won the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open back-to-back-to-back).

Nadal has won the Davis Cup (a team event in which players play for their country) a world record five times, while Federer and Djokovic have each won it a single time.

In his career, Nadal has lost just twice at the French Open, out of 14 complete appearances (he pulled out with injury in 2016). For reference, Federer has lost 13 times at Wimbledon, his most successful major, and Djokovic has fallen eight times at the Australian Open. Nadal won the French Open on his first attempt, and did not lose in Paris until his fifth tournament in 2009.

Nadal has beaten at least one of Federer or Djokovic on his way to winning 13 majors (out of 19 total).

Nadal’s biggest winning streak on clay stands at a mighty 81 matches.

From after Wimbledon in 2007 to before the 2017 Australian Open, Nadal won all six of his major matches with Federer (three at the Australian Open, one at Wimbledon, and two at the French Open). Despite grass being the surface on which he has had the least success, he dethroned Federer, who had won the tournament the last five years, in the final of Wimbledon in 2008.

Nadal has won majors in his teens, 20s, and 30s.

Nadal entered the top 10 as an eighteen-year-old in 2005, and has retained a spot in the top 10 ever since — 778 weeks (almost 15 years).

In 2013, Nadal won two Masters 1000 titles on clay, the French Open, two Masters 1000 titles on hard court, and the U.S. Open. Federer and Djokovic have never done this, and neither has anyone in the Open Era.

Nadal has a better appearance-to-final berth ratio in majors off of clay than Djokovic or Federer have on clay (Nadal makes 34.9% of nonclay slam finals, Djokovic makes the French Open final 26.7% of the time and Federer makes the French Open final 27.8% of the time), and a better appearance-to-final berth ratio at the French Open than Djokovic or Federer have at the other majors combined (80% for Nadal on clay, Djokovic makes 48.8% of nonclay major finals and Federer makes 44.1%)

Nadal has made multiple major finals in ten different seasons (2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019). Federer has made more than one major final in nine seasons (2004-2010, 2015, and 2017), while Djokovic has accomplished the feat eight times (2011-2016, 2018, and 2019).

Nadal is 29-13 when facing a top-5 player at a major (a 69.1% winning percentage). Djokovic is 31-20 (winning 60.8% of the time), and Federer is 29-26 (52.7% winning percentage).

Nadal has a 2-1 record against Djokovic at the U.S. Open, despite hard courts being Djokovic’s best surface.

Nadal has beaten both Federer and Djokovic at the same major three times (the French Open in 2006, 2007, and 2008). Djokovic has beaten Nadal and Federer at the same major once (the 2011 U.S. Open), and Federer has never topped the other two at the same slam.

He has won at least one major and one Masters 1000 title every year from 2005 to 2014, the longest streak owned by any Big Three member.

Nadal is 31-9 in matches against Djokovic and Federer on clay.

Nadal has achieved the rare “Channel Double”, the feat of winning the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, twice (in 2008 and 2010). Federer has done it once, in 2009, and Djokovic has never accomplished this.

Finally, Nadal won the 2009 Australian Open by playing a five-hour, 14-minute semifinal followed by a four-hour, 23-minute final, with one day’s rest in between (he beat Federer in the final).

Roger Federer

Federer has won 20 majors, more than Nadal, Djokovic, and every other man in history.

Federer is the oldest man to win a major and Masters 1000 in the Open Era.

Federer has won multiple majors without losing a set, including Wimbledon in 2017 when he was 35 years old.

At the French Open in 2011, Federer defeated Djokovic in a four-set semifinal. The Serb had been undefeated that year; Federer snapped his winning streak of over 40 matches.

At Hamburg in 2007, Federer beat Nadal 2-6, 6-2, 6-0, snapping the Spaniard’s 81-match winning streak on clay.

Federer is the oldest man to obtain the number one ranking in the Open Era (he was 36 when earning the mantle in early 2018)

He owns the all-time men’s record for weeks in the top spot of the rankings: 310. Nadal has 209, and Djokovic has 282. Federer has also held the number one ranking for the longest period before losing it: 237 weeks, more time than for which Nadal has been number one altogether.

Federer made 10 consecutive major finals from the 2005 Wimbledon to the 2007 U.S. Open, and another eight in a row from the 2008 French Open to the 2010 Australian Open.

He has made 36 consecutive major quarterfinals (nine years’ worth of majors).

Federer came from two sets down against Tommy Haas in the fourth round of the 2009 French Open, then beat Juan Martín del Potro from two sets to one down in the semifinals on his way to winning his only French Open title.

Federer has an Olympic silver medal in singles and a gold medal in doubles (partnered with Stan Wawrinka)

Federer has won 103 tournaments, comfortably more than Nadal’s 85 and Djokovic’s 79.

He has made 23 consecutive major semifinals.

Federer won five Wimbledon titles in a row from 2003-2007, and five U.S. Open titles from 2004-2008.

He is the only member of the Big Three to have at least five titles at three different majors (he has five U.S. Open titles, eight Wimbledon titles, and six Australian Open titles).

Federer has been in the top 2 at least once a year from 2003-2018 (age 21-36).

He is the only player in the trio to have successfully defended a U.S. Open title (he has done it four times. Djokovic and Nadal have never done it).

At Wimbledon and the Australian Open, Federer has at least 100 career wins. Neither Nadal or Djokovic have 100 wins at a slam.

Federer won 11 of the 16 majors contested from 2004 to 2007.

In 2009, Federer made all four slam finals, winning two and losing two (both in five sets, and both by 2-6 scores. He lost to Nadal at the Australian Open and lost to Juan Martin del Potro at the U.S. Open).

Federer has a men’s Open Era record of eight Wimbledon titles.

Federer has 103 career titles, more than Nadal (85) and Djokovic (79).

Federer defeated four top-10 players, including Nadal, to win the 2017 Australian Open.

Federer has won a men’s record of six ATP Finals, and missed out on the semifinals just once in 17 appearances.

He made seven consecutive Wimbledon finals from 2003-2009. No one else has been able to do this at any major since before 2000.

Novak Djokovic

He won four consecutive majors from Wimbledon in 2015 to the 2016 French Open. No man has accomplished this since Rod Laver.

Djokovic has completed the Career Grand Slam, winning each of the four majors.

He leads both rivalries with the other Big Three members: 26-22 against Federer and 29-26 against Nadal.

Since after the 2009 Mutua Madrid Open, Djokovic is 25-12 against Nadal and 23-15 against Federer, for a combined record of 48-27.

Djokovic has beaten Federer in majors 11 times, more than any other player (for reference: Nadal has 10 wins against Federer in slams).

Djokovic won 7 of the 10 Australian Open tournaments played from 2011-2020.

From 2014 to 2019, Djokovic won four of six Wimbledon tournaments.

Djokovic won 30 straight matches in majors from Wimbledon 2015 to Wimbledon 2016 (more than Federer, Nadal, and any man in the Open Era have ever accumulated)

Djokovic won 6 Masters 1000 titles in 2015, the only man to do so in the Open Era.

Djokovic recorded 31 wins over top-10 players in 2015, a season widely accepted as the best and most decorated by a man in the Open Era

Djokovic has saved match points against Federer on his way to winning the contest in majors three times (the 2010 and 2011 U.S. Open semifinals, and the 2019 Wimbledon final).

He has beaten a fellow Big Three member on the way to winning 13 of his 17 majors.

Djokovic has the highest Elo ranking, meaning he’s faced the toughest competition in his career.

Against the top 10, Djokovic has won 68% of his matches compared to Federer’s 64% and Nadal’s 65%.

Djokovic has made at least four finals at each major.

In 2011, Djokovic began the year with 43 consecutive wins.

Djokovic beat Nadal in all six of their meetings (each match was in the final of a tournament) in 2011, defeating the Spaniard to win Indian Wells, the Miami Open, the Madrid Open, Rome, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. His dominance of Nadal in 2011 spanned over all three surfaces.

Djokovic owns all nine masters 1000 titles; neither Federer nor Nadal have the full set.

Out of four meetings with Federer at the Swiss’s best major, Wimbledon, Djokovic has won three and lost one (the only non-final out of the four).

From 2012 to 2015, Djokovic won the ATP Finals four times in a row.

Djokovic is one of just two men to have beaten Nadal at the French Open, winning 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the 2015 quarterfinals.

Djokovic is the only man to have beaten both Federer and Nadal at all four majors.

Holes in the Résumés

While the careers of the Big Three have been, in a word, astounding, their résumés do have holes, miniscule as they may be. This section analyzes the weakest parts of each player’s career: tournaments they’ve never won, ranking dips, losing streaks against each other and other players, missed opportunities, weak competition faced at times, and more.

Roger Federer

Federer, across five French Open finals, has won once and lost four times (all losses to Nadal).

He has lost out on match point opportunities in majors five times in majors. Three losses were to Djokovic, with a combined six match points lost (four on serve and two against serve).

Federer at one point trailed Nadal 23-10 in their head-to-head rivalry.

He has beaten Nadal or Djokovic on the way to winning just seven of his 20 majors.

Federer has a losing record in finals on clay.

In majors against Nadal and Djokovic, his record stands at 10-21. Both of the others have won over half of their Big Three major encounters.

Federer has failed to convert an optimal percentage of break points in several important matches. Notable examples include his 2007 French Open final (a four-set loss to Nadal in which 1/17 break points were taken), the 2015 U.S. Open final (a four-set loss to Djokovic in which he converted 4/23 break points), and more recently his Round of 16 loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, where Federer produced 12 break points and was unable to break a single time.

Despite having won as many sets as Djokovic in their rivalry, Federer trails 23-27.

Federer, after winning the U.S. Open for a fifth straight time in 2008, has never won it since.

While Nadal and Djokovic are both undefeated in semifinals and finals at their best majors (Nadal is 12-0 at both stages in Paris; Djokovic is 8-0 at both stages in Melbourne), Federer has lost four times in Wimbledon finals (three to Djokovic, one to Nadal), and once in the semifinals.

Federer has never beaten Nadal at the French Open in six attempts.

Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a major since Wimbledon in 2012 (they have played six times in slams since then).

He has lost in majors twice from both two sets up and match point up (one of the losses was to Djokovic).

Federer has never beaten Nadal on the way to winning the French Open. He has played Nadal in four finals and two semifinals there.

Federer has never won Rome or Monte-Carlo, one of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments (he won Hamburg, a clay tournament that no longer exists, four times, and the former Madrid tournament on indoor hard once). Still, the gaps in his Masters 1000 collection indicate an overall lower level on clay than Djokovic (along with the Serb’s greater success against Nadal at the French Open).

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is 3-5 in U.S. Open finals, which is on hard court (his best surface).

He is 1-4 in French Open finals.

Unlike Federer and Nadal, Djokovic has never won a major without dropping a set.

Djokovic dropped to 22nd in the world in 2018 after injuries in 2017 and the beginning of 2018 as well as dips in form.

From the 2012 French Open to the 2014 French Open, Djokovic made six major finals and lost five of them (the sole win was at the 2013 Australian Open).

Djokovic does not have an Olympic gold medal in singles (2008: lost to Nadal in the semifinals).

He has lost six times to Nadal at the French Open, and failed to win the tournament the one year he did manage to beat the Spaniard.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has lost 19 sets in a row to Djokovic on hard court.

Nadal has never won the ATP Finals, the year-end 1500-point tournament that the year’s top eight players qualify for, despite qualifying every year since 2005.

In five appearances in the final of the Miami Open, Nadal is winless (in 2005, he fell to Federer after leading by two sets and a break when the format was best-of-five. He lost to Djokovic in 2011 and 2014 and to Federer in 2017).

He has never won the Rolex Paris Masters, another Masters 1000 tournament, or Shanghai, a third Masters 1000.

Nadal hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2009 and won his last Wimbledon title in 2010.

From 2012 to 2015, Nadal recorded four early-round losses at Wimbledon to players outside the top 100 (Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis, Nick Kyrgios, and Dustin Brown).

Nadal has lost six of his last seven matches against Federer.

Nadal has lost both of his matches against Djokovic at the Australian Open.

He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals (two losses to Djokovic and one to Federer), losing from a break up in the fifth set to Djokovic in 2012 and to Federer in 2017.

Miscellaneous Observations

Federer won four majors before playing Nadal in a major for the first time, and won nine before facing Djokovic at a slam. He led his rivalry with Djokovic early on, and now trails 27-23. Some believe that this is because Federer’s age has begun to play a factor, and this may be true, but any disadvantage that his age presents now is balanced by his privilege of playing for several years before meeting Nadal or Djokovic at a slam.

Federer is 20-11 in major finals (10 of the 11 losses are to Nadal or Djokovic), Nadal is 19-8 in major finals (seven of the eight losses are to Federer or Djokovic), and Djokovic is 17-9 in major finals (five of the nine losses are to Federer or Nadal).

Nadal and Djokovic are cut from the same cloth, while Federer’s game is extremely different from his rivals’. The Swiss’s style is aggressive, based around his serve and first strike. He comes to net more than the other two. Djokovic and Nadal are baseliners. They are probably the two hardest men to hit through, such is the strength of their defense. Their serves aren’t prolific in producing aces (Nadal’s is less so than Djokovic’s), and when it comes to long points, they will dominate. They are both exceptional under pressure, and have both beaten Federer in big matches by winning the most important points, if not the most points overall. It’s an interesting way to look at tennis history; Federer ruled with a brand of attacking tennis for a while, then was displaced by a pair of grinders with amazing groundstrokes and no obvious weaknesses to attack in their games (Federer’s would be his one-handed backhand) who seem not to feel pressure much of the time.

Nadal has the best rate of victory in slam finals (70.4%), Djokovic is second at 68% even, and Federer has the worst winning percentage in major finals (64.5%).

Against Andy Murray, the fourth-best player of the generation, Djokovic is 25-11, Nadal is 17-7, and Federer is 14-11.

Djokovic has played, and won, many important matches with the crowd almost fully against him. Some notable examples are the 2019 Wimbledon final and the 2015 U.S. Open final.

The Case for Djokovic (based on his career so far)

Djokovic has won 15 slams in the last decade, more than any other man. He came to power when Federer and Nadal were dominating tennis, and rebounded from huge deficits in each rivalry. He’s beaten Federer at Wimbledon three times, all in finals, and out-grinded Nadal in a five-hour, 53-minute slugfest at the Australian Open, showing he can match and exceed his biggest rivals in brutal matches. He’s only lost one five-setter to Nadal, and none to Federer, while beating them in a combined six. In the clutch, he’s gotten the better of Federer time and again; he’s saved match points against one of the best ever in the biggest matches multiple times.

His return is the best in history, as is his backhand, and his game is the most well-balanced of the three, reflected by his Golden Masters accomplishment. At all four majors, he’s gotten the best of Federer and Nadal. He’s arguably the best hard court player of all time and if he wins a couple more Wimbledon titles, has a solid claim to being the best-ever grass courter as well. And he’s not too shabby on clay; he’s one of just two men to beat Nadal at the French Open and has beaten Nadal on the dirt seven times, more than anyone else. Djokovic has almost as many weeks at #1 as Federer and looks to be in a good position to catch him once the tour resumes. Finally, he won four majors in a row from the 2015 Wimbledon to the 2016 French Open, which hasn’t been done since Rod Laver won the calendar slam in 1969. Since 2011, he’s simply been better than both Federer and Nadal in most of their meetings.

The Case Against Djokovic

He doesn’t lead any of the most important stats — majors, weeks at #1, Masters 1000 titles, or overall tournaments. He trails Nadal and Federer in majors, and lacks an Olympic gold medal. He’s lost nine of his fifteen matches in majors against Nadal. He’s lost five major finals to Wawrinka or Murray, and has a poor conversion rate in U.S. Open finals (3-5), a tournament on his best surface. Federer has as many majors on hard court/clay and three more on grass, while Nadal is stronger at the French Open than he is at the Australian.

The Case for Federer (based on his career so far)

Federer has 20 majors, 310 weeks in the top spot of the rankings, and has won 103 tournaments. All three of these stats are records among the Big Three, and the major tally and weeks at number one are all-time men’s records. He’s the most decorated men’s player in history, and therefore the best. At his peak, he was better than Djokovic in their rivalry. He transcended age to win the Australian Open in 2017, beating four top-10 players including the man who’s inflicted heartbreak upon heartbreak on him, Nadal. He’s beaten Djokovic at all four majors. He dominated the tour for a solid four and a half years, beating old legends like Andre Agassi as well as the young stars of his generation. Even after his most successful years, he was able to beat Djokovic at the French Open in 2011 and at Wimbledon in 2012. Murray’s only beaten him once in a major.

His serve is one of the best among the non-giants of the tour; he gives away nothing about the location. It’s precise and packs a decent punch. Some consider his forehand to be the best ever, and even the best shot ever, and while that’s debatable, it’s an incredibly powerful and reliable shot at its best. His volleys are smooth and his overhead backhand draws gasps whenever he hits it.

He’s won five or more titles at Wimbledon, the Australian Open, and the U.S. Open, as well as a title in Paris and four runner-up plates. His name is at the top of most of the leaderboards.

The Case Against Federer

For much of his career, he hasn’t been as good as his two main rivals. He’s won less than a third of his most important matches against them (10/31), and they’ve both beaten him at Wimbledon, his best slam. Meanwhile, he’s beaten Djokovic at the Australian Open, but that was before the Serb won his first title there, and he’s not been close to defeating Nadal in Paris. While Nadal and Djokovic won 13 and 15 majors, respectively, in the 2010s, Federer won just five, despite beginning the decade as the world No. 1.

He’s the worst under pressure out of the three, as reflected in the 2007 French Open final (1/17 on break points against Nadal) and the 2015 U.S. Open (4/23 on break points against Djokovic). In the 2006 Rome final, his best chance at beating Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay (which he’s never done), he made two unforced errors on his only two match points. He’s missed out on six match points in majors against Djokovic, two of which were championship points at Wimbledon. Nadal and Djokovic are better at taking their chances.

Federer has played for years longer than Nadal and Djokovic, and still trails them in Masters 1000 titles by a considerable distance (he has 28, Djokovic has 34, and Nadal has a men’s record of 35. He’s never won Monte-Carlo or Rome, leaving a significant gap in his clay-court accomplishments.

His success at majors came to a grinding halt as Nadal and Djokovic reached their primes, suggesting that the other two are better players. He won many of his majors without having to contend with either of them, instead feasting on Lleyton Hewitt, a post-prime Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick, and Mark Philippoussis. Nadal and Djokovic had to battle each other, Federer, and the stronger players of the more recent generation to win their majors (such as Murray and Wawrinka), so their slams carry more historical weight. Federer was the third-best player of the highest-level era in modern men’s tennis.

The Case for Nadal (based on his career so far)

Nadal’s the greatest clay court player ever; that’s essentially impossible to contradict. Beating Nadal on clay is the toughest task in men’s tennis, because Nadal at his best on clay is the highest level in men’s tennis.

He beat Federer at Wimbledon in 2008, when the Swiss was still in his prime (and, by his own admission, recovered from the bout of mono he suffered that year). He’s beaten Djokovic at the U.S. Open twice, and won more Flushing Meadows titles than the man many consider to be the greatest hard court player ever. His non-clay accomplishments alone rival the careers of John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors. Is Nadal an all-court player? You bet.

In majors, he is 19-10 against Federer and Djokovic; he’s won a convincing majority of his most important matches with his biggest rivals. And while 12 of his wins come at the French Open, he is 4-4 against Federer at non-clay majors and 3-5 against Djokovic at non-clay majors, by far a better winning percentage than his opponents’ records against him at the French Open (Federer is 0-6, Djokovic is 1-6). He is more dominant on clay than Federer or Djokovic are on grass and hard, respectively, and he’s more accomplished on grass and hard than his rivals are on clay.

Nadal comfortably leads his head-to-head with Federer, even with the Swiss’s revamped backhand helping him win six of the last seven matches. He’s beaten Federer in three of their four hard court major matches, and didn’t lose to him at a hard court major until the 2017 Australian Open final. He might be leading his head-to-head with Djokovic as well had the pair not faced off seven times during Nadal’s biggest dip in form (2015-2016) — for reference, there were only two Djokovic-Nadal matches from 2017-June 2018, Djokovic’s worst period.

Nadal is the only one of the three to have an Olympic gold medal in singles, and he has five Davis Cup titles compared to one each for Djokovic and Federer.

The Case against Nadal

Nadal has never won the year-end ATP Finals tournament, which counts for 1500 points. Djokovic and Federer have each won it five times. He trails Djokovic 20-7 on hard courts and has lost 19 sets in a row to the Serb on cement.

Nadal has by far the fewest weeks at number one out of the three.

Out of the trio, he’s the third-best player on hard courts and grass. He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals, and has never won the Paris Masters or the Miami Open, two of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments. He also hasn’t won the Shanghai Masters (though he won indoor Madrid, the tournament that Shanghai replaced). Djokovic leads their head-to-head 29-26, and as of late Nadal has had difficulty beating both his main rivals. He hasn’t gotten the best of Federer on hard court since the 2014 Australian Open, and not since the 2013 U.S. Open has he tasted victory over Djokovic on cement, and his last grass court wins over Federer and Djokovic came in 2008.

A Note on Why the Clay Specialist Argument Makes No Sense

The “Nadal is just a clay court specialist” argument falls apart as Nadal’s success on other surfaces, including both his rivals in their primes, is revealed. He has won as many majors on grass as Federer and Djokovic have won on clay, combined. He is the only player among the Big Three to have won at least two majors on each surface, and is more surface-balanced than Djokovic and Federer in that respect.

Sergi Bruguera, who won the French Open in 1993 and 1994 and no majors off the Paris dirt, is arguably a clay specialist. Nadal is not; he has won seven majors off of clay alone.

Some say “if you take away everyone’s most successful slam, Nadal has the fewest majors”, but all that proves is that Nadal is better at the French Open than Federer at Wimbledon and Djokovic at the Australian Open. In no way should this count against Nadal in the G.O.A.T. debate.

Djokovic has won 11 of his 17 majors on hard court (64.7%), a greater majority than Nadal’s 12 clay court majors against his 19 total (63.2%). This can be defended by saying there are two hard court majors each year and a singular slam on clay, but this opens up the argument that “if there were a second major on clay, Nadal could very well have another 12 majors”. The point is that wins on hard are not more valuable or important than wins on clay. The “specialist” argument can be used against any player who’s inevitably won a majority of their majors on a single surface. Each surface counts the same, and it is pointless to raise the “if you were to take away a surface…” narrative.

So if it seems that this article is missing a section that uses the “clay specialist” argument against Nadal, this is why I did not include it. Some arguments do not have merit and as such, I have not written about them here.

A Brief Segment on Popularity

Federer and Nadal are simply more popular than Djokovic. They get more crowd support than the Serb, and have more fans worldwide. I suspect that this is because they started winning first, so the world grew a bit accustomed to seeing them dominate before Djokovic began to ascend to their status, beating them both many times along the way. His lack of popularity compared to the others may also have to do with his on-court demeanor. He smashes rackets on occasion, while Nadal has never done so and Federer hasn’t since 2009 (he was losing to Djokovic at the time). I don’t place any emphasis on popularity when it comes to the G.O.A.T. debate, and I don’t think it makes Djokovic any less of a great player.

What Conclusions Can Be Drawn?

In this section, I’m going to do my best to provide some predictions and concrete statements about the strength of the careers of the Big Three. When I read an article about the G.O.A.T. debate, I always want to see an opinion at the end saying something more than “their claims are equally good”. I do think it’s far too early to definitively say who the greatest of all time is, but I will give some opinions that will hopefully satisfy some curiosity.

Although Federer leads in majors, overall tournaments, and weeks at #1, I think that the battle for the G.O.A.T. title will come down to Nadal and Djokovic. Federer, bluntly put, is not as reliable in big moments of matches, against his rivals and against other players. He trails in both rivalries, and has lost over two-thirds of his matches in majors when playing Nadal and Djokovic. Because of this, I think that if they can equal his 20 majors, their superior big-match playing, Masters 1000 tally, and their more complete domination of their most successful major will overpower Federer’s claim.

It’s a very tough call between Nadal and Djokovic for who I think will eventually be considered the best men’s tennis player ever. The former will likely win additional Roland-Garros titles, the latter will probably win more Australian Open titles. Nadal leads in majors, Masters 1000s, the head-to-head in majors, and overall tournaments won (as well as having an Olympic gold medal), so I believe that as it stands today, his résumé is slightly better than Djokovic and his four consecutive majors won, overall head-to-head lead, amazing streak on hard courts, and status as the best player of the 2010s decade. But Nadal is farther past his prime than Djokovic is, and the Serb has won five of the last seven majors. There’s every chance that Djokovic will exceed Nadal’s major and Masters 1000 tally.

If he does so, his lead in the head-to-head and his other accomplishments could well lift him to the status of G.O.A.T.

One of the most difficult things about this debate is measuring the accomplishments of each player. As I said above, I think Federer’s résumé will be the weakest if his major tally is tied or exceeded, but this is subjective. Others may consider weeks at number one to be the most important stat, or perhaps overall tournaments won.

By the same token, it’s very hard to determine how much of a lead one player will need on another to be considered better. In the case of Federer, I think once his 20 majors are equaled, his claim is worse than that of the player who matched him (Nadal or Djokovic).

Nadal and Djokovic are, if possible, an even trickier case. When does Djokovic’s big lead in weeks at #1 come into play? Is it worth one major, two majors? Less than one? What about Nadal’s Olympic gold medal? Another reason this debate is so tough to project is that there’s the possibility that Djokovic could win gold in the future, or that Federer could win more majors, pushing his total out of reach (I do think the former possibility is more likely).

Here’s the most definitive statement I can make regarding Nadal and Djokovic: I think that if Djokovic can surpass Nadal’s haul of majors, his career will be slightly more impressive as a whole. And vice-versa, if Nadal ends with more majors I believe his career will be the best ever by a man. Their non-major stats and achievements (Masters 1000s, head-to-head leads, surface domination, etc.) are extremely close in weight. My opinion is that if they tie or exceed Federer’s 20 majors, they deserve to be considered better players.

Of course, this hypothetical as well as the one at the start of this section is next to useless, as it assumes that the only thing that will change between now and the end of the careers of the Big Three is the major tally.

But I’m trying to analyze their careers right now, and here’s what I think: majors are the most important part of the debate. This is what’s keeping Federer in the conversation. But since Nadal and Djokovic’s claims are likely as good at the moment, it won’t be much of a contest if either or both of them reach 20 majors. Djokovic and Nadal’s more impressive competition faced, domination of a single major, etc. put them on virtually equal footing with Federer, so with regards to the race for G.O.A.T., Federer has a mountain to climb.

He needs to hold on to his lead in majors to maintain a claim to be the G.O.A.T., and Nadal is one away from tying him. Djokovic is three behind, but has been the most dominant player of the past decade and has won large groups of majors in very short periods of time, as he did when completing his “Nole Slam” and when regaining supremacy in men’s tennis at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019.

I think Federer will eventually be considered the third-best player of the trio when these three great players have all retired. I believe that he has a viable claim to G.O.A.T. as it stands today, but he won’t in the future if his 20 majors are matched.

On the other hand, I think that Nadal and Djokovic will always have a strong claim, barring a large deficit in majors upon the end of their careers. For example, if the gap between them is two or less, the player with fewer majors will still have a claim, though it will be weaker.

As for a prediction between Nadal and Djokovic for who will end up as the G.O.A.T., I’m afraid I’ll have to leave it open-ended. Djokovic looks the more likely to win majors currently, but Nadal is always a (the) favorite at the French Open and has won two of the last three U.S. Open tournaments as well. And the younger players on the circuit, the NextGen, are improving constantly and may prevent the older stars from adding much more to their résumés, in which case Federer could hold on to his record of 20 majors.

There’s no doubt that this G.O.A.T. debate is among the most interesting and complex conversations ever to grace the tennis community. Fans of all three players display impressive passion, and each group has suffered heartbreak as their favorite player has fallen to one of the other two or another ATP player. Tennis is mentally taxing, not just as a player, but as a fan, and the G.O.A.T. debate can be immensely frustrating if an argument isn’t going the way one wants, or if there’s a particularly fierce disagreement. The thought of one’s favorite player not going down as the G.O.A.T. is almost too much to bear.

But even if your man doesn’t win this incredible race, it doesn’t lessen the remarkable career they’ve had. If you are positive that your favorite won’t come out on top, there’s no need to be devastated. They’re still an all-time legend. Their best moments are immortalized in your memory and on YouTube.

Go back in time. Go back, and watch Nadal overcome the limits of physical exhaustion by winning a titanic Australian Open semifinal against Verdasco (one of the best hard court matches ever), then somehow recover for the anticipated final with Federer. Watch Djokovic edge Andy Murray in the Australian Open semifinal three years later, then outlast Nadal in a mind-bending five-hour, 53-minute final that left both players struggling not to cramp during the trophy ceremony. Relive Federer’s improbable victory at the Australian Open in 2017 where he beat four top-10 players, getting the best of Nadal in the final in perhaps his most emotional victory ever.

Watch Nadal beat Federer in what’s widely considered the best match of all time at Wimbledon in 2008. Check out Djokovic beating Nadal in a 2018 semifinal at the same tournament that’s possibly the best quality match since. See the Serb’s emotion as he wins the French Open for the first time here (his fourth major in a row!). Watch Federer feel the same joy here.

Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer have given tennis fans hours upon hours of breathtaking tennis. They’ve delivered shots that made our mouths fall open, and worked their way into such pressured positions that we felt like throwing up.

They haven’t just attracted fans with their dazzling tennis, but with their personalities and unique qualities. The elegance, awe-inspiring shot selection at times, and seeming effortlessness of Federer has helped earn him an enormous fan base, while many others are captivated by Djokovic and Nadal’s incredible endurance and more expressive on-court personalities. All three have brought myriad fans to the tennis community.

Despite the undeniable talent of the NextGen, it’s not close to what the Big Three have brought to tennis (at least not yet). The quality of what we’ve watched from these players and their rivalries with each other may never be seen again in men’s tennis. Nadal and Federer’s forehands as well as Djokovic’s backhand might not just be the best ever, but the best there will ever be.

So let’s enjoy them while they’re here. They’re still among the best in the world, but there’s no mistaking that their best days are behind them. Soon enough, they’ll take their leave from professional tennis and we’ll be left wondering how the golden days of the men’s game went by so quickly.

But it’s not over yet. When the tour starts up again, Djokovic will still be number one. Nadal will be number two. Federer, recovering from knee surgery, will be in the bottom half of the top ten, but eager to climb the ladder. All three will be fighting to contend for major titles. This story may be in its closing stages, but it’s not over yet.

Martina Navratilova said it best at the end of the Strokes of Genius documentary on the 2008 Wimbledon final:

“We’re so lucky.”

Thanks to everyone who had a hand in putting this article together. There are too many to name here, but dozens of people contributed stats on Twitter, and the help is hugely appreciated. As always, feedback is welcome; feel free to leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!