Opinion: Should There Be A Masters 1000 On Grass?

By Owen Lewis

There are nine Masters 1000s on tour, beginning with the prestigious Indian Wells tournament in California and ending partway across the globe on the indoor hard courts in Paris. Though the circuit is comprised of three different surfaces, all Masters 1000s take place on either hard courts or clay.

Wimbledon, the third major of the year, is a grass court tournament. Majors are the most important events on the tennis circuit (worth 2000 points each). So why are there no Masters 1000s on grass?

The most immediate answer is cost. Grass courts are simply more expensive to maintain than the other surfaces. It is also a difficult, lengthy process to construct a grass court, which likely incentivized the Masters 1000s to instead hold their tournaments on the other surfaces. In 2007, an exhibition between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal (who at the time were dominating grass and clay, respectively) was played on an unconventional hybrid court, made up of both clay and grass. Over 1.6 million dollars was spent on its construction, and the process stretched on for 19 days. Not surprisingly, new grass courts are rarely built.

The hefty expenses of constructing grass courts is unfortunate, because a Masters 1000 on the surface could help bring more balance to the tour. Hard courts are the predominant surface, but clay still makes up a greater portion of the circuit than grass. There are three Masters 1000s on clay, providing a steady buildup to Roland-Garros (the clay court major) in May. Before Wimbledon, there are two smaller tournaments on grass that some of the top players will participate in (Halle and Stuttgart), but several players each year will elect not to play either, instead opting to practice with a hitting partner or coach.

A Masters 1000 on grass would likely incentivize more players to take part in a lead-up tournament to Wimbledon, driven by the increased points at stake and a greater chance to play themselves into form against strong players. Not only that, but it would make the Masters 1000s’ level more representative of the majors’ level, representing all three surfaces that the biggest tournaments are played on (this would still be an unequal representation, but it would be a step closer to it than the current makeup).

This relates to the often all-consuming G.O.A.T. debate for many. Federer’s most successful major has been Wimbledon; he’s won a men’s record of eight titles on London’s lawns. He has 20 majors to Nadal’s 19 and Novak Djokovic’s 17, yet trails both in Masters 1000 titles (he has 28, Djokovic has 34, and Nadal has 35). Part of this is due to the fact that Federer skipped several Masters 1000s in his prime, but some argue, not unreasonably, that Federer would have more titles if one of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments were on grass.

While hypotheticals are shaky ground for any argument, it is hard to imagine that Federer wouldn’t have a handful of titles from a Masters 1000 on grass, given his eight Wimbledon victories and ten titles in Halle. Blaming the structure of the tour isn’t a sufficient justification for Federer’s lower tally of Masters 1000s, but there doesn’t seem to be a good reason besides cost for the lack of a tournament at that level on grass.

Grass is the preferred surface for very few ATP players these days, yet implementing a new Masters 1000 might not only allow for more players to be in-form for Wimbledon, it could give way to more athletes mastering the grass.

There’s no way around this; the tour is probably overstuffed already. For many, the offseason gets shorter and shorter each year, and injuries are frequent on the circuit. So if a Masters 1000 were on grass, a tournament would surely have to go.

A good candidate is the Paris, the final Masters 1000 of the year. Thanks to the aforementioned and crammed tennis schedule, many players are worn down by the time Paris rolls around. The final hasn’t been contested by two seeded players (Paris has 16 seeds) since 2015. Placing a Masters 1000 on grass before Wimbledon and using the empty Paris slot to better space out the remaining tournaments could help alleviate the grind of the tour while also bringing a better balance to its surface distribution.

Changing the format and placement of Masters 1000 tournaments is not unprecedented. In 2007, the Shanghai Masters was established, bumping the previous owner of the calendar slot (an indoor tournament in Madrid) to the clay season. The Tennis Masters Cup became the World Tour Finals as a result of this change, showing that tournament mobility is very possible. Shanghai is also an outdoor tournament, displaying a switch from the indoor conditions of Madrid. Granted, a change from hard courts to grass would be much more expensive.

Bringing a Masters 1000 on grass to the tennis circuit offers many positives and few negatives (sorry, fans of the Paris Masters). Yet it’s unlikely that the change will be made, at least in the near future. The cost of grass courts alone is enough to dissuade many from the proposal, and there would inevitably be pushback from the tournament that the new Masters 1000 would displace. Still, the tour should always be looking for ways to improve, as its players do, and adding a Masters 1000 on grass to the calendar would be a step in the right direction.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

The Intriguing Djokovic-Federer Rivalry

By Owen Lewis

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are two of the greatest tennis players of all time. They have 37 major titles between them, and their prolific rivalry is second on the men’s side in terms of volume of matches (Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have played more).

They weave fascinating patterns when playing, with Federer often trying to work his way to the net and using his slice to keep Djokovic off balance, while Djokovic attempts to attack Federer’s weaker backhand wing and engage in sapping baseline rallies. The latter strategy has proved to be slightly more successful, as Djokovic leads the rivalry 27-23.

Behind these numbers lie extremely close contests and remarkable statistics. Djokovic leads their rivalry in majors 11-6, and has won three matches from double match point down, including the 2019 Wimbledon final. Federer won four of their first five meetings on the biggest stage, but since then the story of the rivalry in majors has been Djokovic claiming the biggest points and the matches.

In majors:

Djokovic is 64/155 (41.3%) on break points against Federer.

Federer is 57/171 (32.7%) on break points against Djokovic.
— Owen (@tennisnation) June 6, 2020

Federer, despite earning more break point chances, has actually broken less often than Djokovic when they clash in a major. Djokovic has made the most of more of his opportunities, as he did at the 2015 U.S. Open final: converting six of 13 break points to Federer’s four of 23.

Though Federer is more than five years older than Djokovic, he has remained competitive in their matches. He has won at least a set in all but three of their meetings in majors, and actually leads the rivalry in best-of-three contests: 17-16.

The rivalry is very close across all three surfaces. Djokovic leads 3-1 on grass and 20-18 on hard courts, and they are tied 4-4 on clay. However, Djokovic has a 13-6 edge in tournament finals. He is, as reflected by the break point statistics above, better in pressured situations than Federer, and is an excellent big match player as well.

Djokovic can execute his desired strategy in big moments more reliably and effectively than Federer. In the 2019 Wimbledon final, Djokovic won three tiebreaks, during which many baseline exchanges took place. Such patterns allow Djokovic to take control of points with his pace redirection and safe yet penetrating groundstrokes, and expose Federer’s fragile backhand.

These two points are a great illustration of the effectiveness of Djokovic’s lower-risk strategy in big moments, as well as his superior play under pressure. pic.twitter.com/RnPFVgTFqv
— Owen (@tennisnation) July 12, 2020

Above: consecutive points from the crucial third-set tiebreak in Novak Djokovic’s 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) win over Roger Federer in the 2019 Wimbledon final. Note the placement of Djokovic’s shots in the second point; while they are aggressive enough to take control of the point, they are relatively safe in that they’re not particularly close to the lines. Djokovic’s ability to play points in this manner has been instrumental in him dominating his recent tiebreaks with Federer.

Federer is long past his prime, while Djokovic is yet to decline as much. The latter has dominated the second phase of the rivalry, boasting a 21-10 record against Federer since the start of 2011. This is likely due to a combination of Djokovic ascending to his best form and Federer’s age-related decline, as well as Djokovic establishing his superiority on big points.

A recent trend in the rivalry is Djokovic’s winning streak in tiebreaks. He has won the last six, beginning with a tight breaker in the first set of his 2018 Paris semifinal with Federer. Djokovic saved a set point on his way to winning the tiebreak 8-6, and since has lost just 16 points in the next five breakers. In the last four, he has made zero unforced errors.

Federer’s game is higher-risk than Djokovic’s. With Djokovic refusing to make an unforced error in their tiebreaks, all the pressure falls on Federer to win points with winners or by forcing errors. At the 2020 Australian Open, Djokovic won a first-set tiebreak 7-1, with Federer striking a forehand winner to score his lone point. With Federer’s margin for error in tiebreaks being virtually nonexistent, his best hope to win sets against Djokovic is before the score gets to 6-all.

As is the case in virtually all rivalries, the winner of the first set sees their chances to win the match vastly increase. But the opening frame is much more important to Federer than it is to Djokovic. The leader in the rivalry has beaten Federer from a set down seven times, including twice in majors, while Federer has gotten the best of Djokovic after losing the first set just once: in 2014.

Even before 2011, the year in which Djokovic rose to the peak of his powers and began to turn around the rivalry, Djokovic had beaten Federer from a set down three times, including in the semifinals of the 2010 U.S. Open. Federer’s skills as a frontrunner are often spoken of, but in this matchup it’s Djokovic who is tougher to beat from a set down. Since Federer’s comeback win in the 2014 Dubai final (he won 3-6, 6-3, 6-2) seems to be something of a one-off, Federer virtually needs to take the first set in his matches with Djokovic to win the match.

With Federer standing at 38 years old and recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, it’s unlikely that he will rebound from his deficit in the rivalry. But if he is to, he has to be very opportunistic. His challenges are more mental than physical; Federer managed to play for four hours and 56 minutes last year in the Wimbledon final, keeping the match very close. Yet he consistently loses most of the big points when he plays Djokovic, and losing the first set against him is practically a death warrant to Federer’s chances of winning the match.

As for Djokovic, if he continues to win the lion’s share of the big points against Federer, he will continue to win most of their matches. He can even afford lapses, such as the second set of the 2019 Wimbledon final, as long as he is sharp in important moments.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions or feedback, please leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

Opinion: The Privilege of Tennis Analysts

By Owen Lewis

A tennis court is 78 feet long, and 27 feet wide between the singles lines. My keyboard is perhaps a foot long and six inches wide. The keys are squares, with the sides measuring less than an inch. My fingers don’t have to move far to tap out words, sentences, or paragraphs. If I screw up, there’s a backspace key. If I have writer’s block, am tired, or don’t feel like writing, I can take a break.

And I have the audacity to write pieces on this smallish machine (a laptop) that critique the shots, matches, and playing styles of professional tennis players.

There are approximately 7.8 billion people on the planet. A tiny fraction, far less than 1%, are tennis players. Another miniscule portion of that group plays tennis well enough to make a career out of it. And most of that select group will never reach the top ten or win a big title. But pundits don’t often write about the efforts of the lower-ranked players. Most tennis writing is about the handful of players whose accomplishments have raised them into the vault of immortality.

And yet, if one of these legends struggles with their game, has a streak of less-than-perfect results, or gets injured, we tennis analysts get to work with pieces announcing their downfall. While sweat flies off the players’ bodies with their supreme effort, many writers prefer to find a comfortable seat before beginning their work. As serves land directly on lines, pundits point out an untimely double fault, daring to call it an “unforced error”. Most of the winners struck by the players go undescribed, reduced instead to numbers hastily thrown in an article.

The pressure got to them, writers will type, knowing full well that they themselves will probably never come close to facing such a nerve-racking situation. The efforts of some of the best players in the world are diminished as analysts readily produce numbers that show rivals have outperformed them.

Why are these outstanding athletes’ heroics often greeted by callous, cynical writing?

For one thing, analyzing is easier than playing. To produce a brilliant tennis point, both players have to strike the ball cleanly, move well, and create angles that draw gasps from the crowd. And that sentence doesn’t come close to detailing how hard it is to hit cleanly when the ball’s diameter is barely two and a half inches, most racket heads are less than 110 square inches, and a distance of many yards often has to be covered before a player has even the chance to make a solid swing at the ball. Then there’s the issue of the power, direction, and spin that a shot carries.

To analyze or report on tennis, all one needs is a decent understanding of the rules, a couple matches under their belt (watching or playing), and a serviceable vocabulary. To play tennis well, one must be extremely fit, both strength-wise to have the power to hit winners, and endurance-wise to stay competitive in long, physical matches. They need good hand-eye coordination, speed, mental steadiness in big moments…the list goes on.

Alexander Zverev, the world number seven on the ATP Tour, temporarily solved his problems with his serve at this year’s Australian Open, citing hours of practice daily as the solution. It’s evident that writing about Zverev’s practices doesn’t even require a fraction of the effort that practicing tennis does. It’s so easy to summarize what Zverev did: he practiced his serve for hours at a time until the double faults that plagued him in 2019 started to become less frequent.

Yet for Zverev, his actions required tremendous effort, tossing a ball over and over until he found a spot that seemed comfortable, trying to force himself to jump up to meet the toss in the hot Melbourne sun. He probably pressed through muscle soreness and mental fatigue, fighting to fix the weakness in his game in time for his first round match.

Zverev made his deepest run yet at a major this January, making the semifinals of the Australian Open before losing a close four-setter to Dominic Thiem. He hit few double faults along the way, and in my summary of how he performed at the event lies the wide gulf in terms of difficulty between writing and playing.

Why, then, is the incredible will and skill of professional tennis players not mentioned more often? A passive sentence or two might be dedicated to the quality of a match or even a spectacular winner, but much of tennis analysis focuses on what players could have done better, or should have done better. They weren’t at their best, critics will lament of a losing player. But who is anyone except a professional tennis player to say this? It strikes me as hypocritical, and my criticizing this is of course hypocritical as well as I’ve done the same thing.

Does deserved praise of a player erode interest in a piece? Tennis is a sport that turns on the big points, and so analysis of those moments is possibly in higher demand than acclaiming the skills of the athletes.

Perhaps a positive style of writing takes away from the effectiveness of analysis. But it can be hard to compliment a ghastly unforced error (I know, I’m a hypocrite, but I’ve already admitted to that). Saying “Player X shanks a forehand” seems too simple, while “Player X gets unlucky and mishits a forehand” seems too generous and could be untrue. Finding middle ground at first sounds appropriate: “Possibly taken ahold of by nerves, Player X shanks a forehand”, but to attempt to justify every single miss a player makes is repetitive and would be nothing short of tedious reading for most fans.

When a player strikes a backhand down the line, redirecting a fierce crosscourt shot with the perfect mixture of spin and pace to land the ball right in the corner, past the reach of the opponent, often writers will summarize with “Player Y hits a backhand winner down the line”. This doesn’t seem to do justice to the difficulty of the winner in the slightest. Given that describing incredible athletic feats can’t be nearly as hard as performing them, one would think tennis writers have it somewhat easy, but much of the time they fail to accurately describe the sporting excellence.

There is no backspace key on the tennis court. It is a sport with smaller margin for error than perhaps any other. But one wouldn’t always know this from reading about the sport, and this seems like a big missed opportunity to capture the magic of the game. Players need to keep their emotions in check on break point in front of a packed crowd. Getting out of a sticky situation with a winner or proactive play could be the dictionary definition of grace under pressure.

Sports weren’t invented to be described in the written word. But much of tennis writing lacks the lyrical, dramatic energy that live matches can produce. If players can summon shots that defy belief and logic, and hit the lines when the pressure is at its highest, the least writers can do is find prose that captures as much of the essence of these awe-inspiring moments as possible.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions, please leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

What Makes a Tennis Match Great?

By Owen Lewis

In the gallery of epic tennis matches lie contests of diverse length, competitiveness, and quality. The Nadal-Federer 2008 Wimbledon final is renowned for not just the eye-popping winners, but for the two rain delays that extended the match, the fact that it ended in darkness, and the historical significance. The men’s 2012 Australian Open final redefined the limits of physical endurance in tennis as Novak Djokovic overcame exhaustion and Rafael Nadal to win an impossibly attritional five-hour, 53-minute battle. The 2018 Australian Open semifinal between Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber is of legendary status for its third set, a frame of heavenly quality in which both players saved a pair of match points before Halep edged out her rival.

What do these classics have in common? The first answer that comes to mind is that they are all extremely close, with the results hinging on one or two key points. But this criterion could also apply to a match in which errors were made on every point. The quality of the tennis is crucial, not just in terms of how many winners were hit but relating to rally intensity as well. In the Halep-Kerber semifinal, there was one more unforced error than winner between the players, but such was the length and intensity of the exchanges that this stat loses a lot of weight.

Some prefer the first-strike tennis that is seen frequently at Wimbledon, while others are partial to the longer rallies that Roland-Garros gives way to, so in that sense quality can be subjective.

A strange commonality between many fantastic matches are small chokes. At first this seems ridiculous, as a choke is a dip in level, but often times a lapse from one player will spark a spirited comeback by the other. The aforementioned 2008 Wimbledon final and 2012 Australian Open final both featured mini-chokes by the eventual winner that greatly increased the overall quality of the match. In the former, Nadal led two sets to one and 5-2 in the fourth-set tiebreak but made consecutive errors on serve, allowing Federer to get a foothold in the breaker. While the two points were lost on unforced mistakes, it lengthened the tiebreak, allowing the Center Court crowd to witness perhaps the finest ever back-to-back passing shots a few minutes later, as well as an absorbing fifth set. Djokovic led the 2012 final in Melbourne two sets to one and held a 5-3 advantage in the tiebreak, but made three forehand unforced errors that helped Nadal win the fourth set. A minor choke, yes, yet it allowed an 80-minute fifth set that made the match the longest major final ever. The Halep-Kerber semifinal saw both players make an unforced error on match point in a game that they would end up losing, but this contributed to the drama and the length of the third set. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitová clashed for possession of the 2019 Australian Open title, and Osaka had three championship points in the second set, yet couldn’t take any, failed to serve out the match, and lost the frame. Yet she rebounded to win the third, thereby making the final an example of her mental fortitude.

Another feature of great contests is a simultaneously high level of play from the participants. The 2019 Wimbledon final between Djokovic and Federer saw Djokovic lapse significantly in the second and fourth sets, while Federer was unable to find his best level in the three tiebreaks that took place during the final. While there was some high-quality play from both, the unevenly strong tennis was significant enough that this match is generally not considered one of the best ever, though it did take nearly five hours to crown a winner.

Most matches heralded as the best ever contain at least one legend of the game, often two. This is partly because the strongest players are the most capable of producing high-quality tennis, and partly because matches with lower-ranked players get less attention from fans and pundits. Yet having two all-time greats isn’t a requirement for a spectacle. Fernando Verdasco, an ATP player that has never made it inside the top five, took part in one of the finest matches ever, a 2009 Australian Open semifinal with Nadal (Nadal’s presence in many of the best men’s contests deserves a mention, his capacity to play epic matches is probably unparalleled on the ATP). Verdasco went for broke from the outset, clocking 95 winners across a five-hour, 14-minute battle that saw several amazing rallies (he would end up losing 6-4 in the fifth. The performance was likely his finest). Anyone can take part in an epic; it depends on level of play, not status.

The atmosphere and crowd at a match can contribute to its place in the history books. While both are unrelated to the forehands and backhands struck by the athletes, crowd support can energize a player. The 2001 Wimbledon final between Pat Rafter and Goran Ivanišević is known as “People’s Monday”. An excellent match in its own right, the final was bolstered by the buzzing crowd, many of them Croatian or Australian and ecstatic to see their man in the Wimbledon final. The five-set battle is also remembered for Ivanišević’s improbable triumph; he entered the tournament courtesy of a wild card and was ranked outside the top 100.

A great tennis match defines a variety of contests, and has many criteria, yet failing to meet one or two doesn’t often disqualify a match from being great. There have been epics of myriad types in the past, and there will surely be many more in the future.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions or feedback, please leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

Nadal vs. Verdasco: 2009 Australian Open Semifinal as it happened

By Owen Lewis

Hello and welcome to my game-by-game report (I’m writing as if this match were live) of the Rafael Nadal-Fernando Verdasco Australian Open semifinal! This match will determine who plays Roger Federer in the championship match, and many have written off 14th-seeded Verdasco and are awaiting a rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon final, the best match of last year and potentially of all time.

Nadal has to get through his fellow Spanish lefty before he can have another crack at Federer, however, and Verdasco has impressed so far in this Australian Open, not least in his fourth-round defeat of U.S. Open finalist Andy Murray. The Scot is a great hard court player — he beat top-seeded Nadal in the semifinal of last year’s Flushing Meadows tournament.

Still, Verdasco is a clear underdog in this match. Nadal may have lost in the semifinals of the U.S. Open, but he won Roland-Garros, Wimbledon, and the Olympics last year, wrestling the number one ranking away from Federer, who had held it for an uninterrupted (and scarcely believable) four and a half years. Nadal is yet to drop a set in this tournament, and dismissed sixth seed Gilles Simon in a straight-set quarterfinal. He’ll be eager to defeat Federer in their first major meeting on hard courts, further eroding the Swiss’s confidence and dominance.

Nadal is aiming to make his first Australian Open final, last year he was taken out at this stage by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and a brilliant, penetrating storm of groundstrokes. Seeing as Verdasco defeated Tsonga, the fifth seed, in the quarterfinals, maybe a tremendous upset is in order. What’s more likely, though, is that the in-form Nadal’s defenses will prove too strong for Verdasco’s powerful groundstrokes. The 14th seed will need to go for broke, as Tsonga did in 2008, to have a chance tonight.

Nadal was once susceptible to being blown off the court (at least in off-clay matches) by a sustained burst of power, as Tsonga did to him at this tournament in 2008 and Fernando Gonzalez did the year before that. Nadal has refined his defenses, though, and crushed Gonzalez earlier in the draw.

The underdog’s game likely has the firepower to propel him to a good performance against the top seed. Verdasco’s serve packs a solid punch, and his forehand is fearsome at its best. Still, it’s unlikely that he will be able to play his very best tennis for long enough to win three sets. Nadal is in superb physical condition, and it’s probable that Verdasco will be the first to tire in the case of an epic.

Nadal leads the rivalry 7-0, and demolished Verdasco in their most recent match (at the 2008 Roland-Garros tournament) for the loss of just three games. Granted, their match tonight is on hard court, but Verdasco has his work cut out for him.

This match, regardless of result, promises to present some interesting tactics and rallies. Both will likely make an effort to avoid serving to the other’s forehand, and Nadal may hit more forehands down the line than is typical of him in order to avoid Verdasco’s stronger wing. Since most of his opponents are righty, his crosscourt forehand is often his default shot as he tries to find his opposition’s backhand, so if Verdasco is playing well tonight, Nadal’s forehand down the line may be tested.

Verdasco will have to start well. This is his first major semifinal, and if the magnitude of the match gets to him, making him tight early, the match could be over within the first couple games. This is the challenge that underdogs face when facing a legend of the game — and with Nadal’s instantly legendary win at Wimbledon last year, he has lifted himself into that category, proving that he is capable of mastering more than just the clay courts (over which his reign is unchallenged).

Nadal, on the other hand, has everything to lose. This year has the potential to be his best ever. Given his ridiculously good performance at Roland-Garros last year, one would think that barring injury, the 2009 trophy is all but his; Novak Djokovic taking the third set of their semifinal to a tiebreak was the extent to which Nadal was challenged at the French Open in 2008. And Nadal must also be considered a strong threat at Wimbledon, now that he’s dethroned Federer. If the world number one can win this tournament, he could be looking at a year in which he wins three majors.

If Verdasco is hoping for Nadal to put up a tight performance, though, he’ll almost certainly be disappointed. The best player in the world displayed impressive mental strength at Wimbledon last year. When Federer rebounded from a two-set deficit, evening the match, Nadal responded by serving well in the fifth, only allowing the Swiss a look at one break point (which Nadal saved seamlessly, bouncing an overhead into the seats). He also saved 16 of 17 break points against Federer in the 2007 French Open final; Nadal is perhaps the best big point player in the world. Verdasco will have to serve well, return well, and do virtually everything well, but he’ll also have to be opportunistic. Nadal will make him pay for missed chances.

The players are finished warming up, and the second men’s semifinal is about to begin. Let’s hope for an epic match — the men’s tournament has been spectacular so far, yielding 21 five-setters! I don’t think many would say no to one more.

First set: Verdasco 1-0 Nadal (the italicized player is the next to serve)

It’s 30 degrees Celsius on court — quite warm for a late match. Verdasco won the toss and elected to serve, and an easy hold would likely help settle his nerves and build confidence that he can produce a strong performance tonight. He begins the biggest match of his life by cracking a forehand wide. An extended rally takes place at love-15, and it’s Verdasco who comes out on top, forcing an error with a well-angled backhand. The 14th seed shanks a forehand early in the next point, but it stays in and eventually Nadal bends a forehand wide. Verdasco sends a backhand long, and here’s an early test at 30-all. The underdog passes with flying colors, hitting a great serve down the middle and thrashing an inside-out forehand winner. He follows that with another missed backhand, though: deuce. Verdasco crushes an inside-in forehand, and Nadal’s defensive sliced forehand is just wide. It’s game point, but Verdasco nets a forehand for deuce #2. This game is so crucial for him, and the longer it goes the more questions it will likely ask of the underdog. He reaches game point for a third time with a service winner, then bashes an ace down the middle to secure a vital hold of serve.

First set: Verdasco 1-1 Nadal

Verdasco weathers some hard hitting from Nadal early in the rally, getting to a neutral position, but undoes his work with a needlessly long forehand. The world number one cracks an ace down the tee for 30-love, then lashes an inside-out forehand winner. Three game points. Verdasco’s return is deep, forcing Nadal to hit an awkward pickup which sets up Verdasco for a simple forehand winner. Another imposing shot on that wing, a pacy inside-in effort, hauls him to 40-30, but Nadal unloads on an inside-out forehand and Verdasco can’t keep the ball in play.

First set: Verdasco 2-1 Nadal

A big serve to Nadal’s forehand and a crisp forehand winner see Verdasco move 30-love up in short order. He looks to have settled in already, which is an encouraging sign for him. He sweeps a crosscourt forehand winner for 40-love, then holds to love with an ace out wide.

First set: Verdasco 2-2 Nadal

Both players are wearing ice towels around their necks on the changeover, which gives an idea of how hot it is on court. Verdasco wins his fifth consecutive point with a crosscourt forehand winner struck at a beautiful angle; Nadal didn’t have a play on it. The top seed makes it 15-all with a big serve down the middle, celebrating with a “Vamos!” The fact that he’s pumping himself up so early shows both that he knows the serve was crucial, and that he very much wants to win this match. Verdasco returns long, but makes up for it by performing some baseline mastery: he bullies Nadal with his backhand, smashing one down the line that opens up the court, then takes the next one early, sending it crosscourt with force, and Nadal can’t get there in time. Verdasco has a sniff in this game at 30-all, and he has a break point after doing well to slice back a Nadal forehand deep! But how he’ll regret this next miss! He dominates another baseline rally, forcing Nadal to toss up a lob after slotting an excellent forehand into the corner, but he smashes long! He can’t miss chances like that. Nadal immediately closes out the game with a service winner and a strong backhand down the line. The window of opportunity for Verdasco is small, and he’ll need to maintain his focus in this next service game.

First set: Verdasco 3-2 Nadal

The 14th seed serves big for 15-love. He then wins an excellent point — he works his way into the net, slamming down an overhead, but Nadal is scrambling delightfully well and returns the smash deep. Verdasco shows his brains by realizing Nadal will be happy to sprint back and forth until he wins the point, and instead of trying to cream the ball past his countryman he slices a smooth drop shot that Nadal doesn’t come close to, such was his depth in position. Well done. The crowd gives Verdasco a nice hand for that; he’s made an excellent start to this match. Nadal badly mishits a second serve return, handing Verdasco three game points. The top seed reads a wide serve, flicking a beautiful crosscourt forehand return winner, then Verdasco pounds a forehand long for 40-30. Nadal has three winners and three unforced errors so far, while Verdasco has nine winners and eight unforced errors. He’s playing very well, and clearly knows that he needs to take big risks and go for the lines to have a chance in this match. He misses another forehand, though, and this game has become very complicated quickly. A hold here is so important for Verdasco, not just to keep him in the set, but to quiet the missed overhead demons from the last game.

Nadal is moving well, and looks to be firmly in control of the deuce point, when Verdasco suddenly unleashes a vicious forehand down the line, surprising Nadal and forcing him to net his sliced backhand. It’s deuce again when Verdasco nets a slice of his own, but he reaches advantage with a service winner, then holds with another great serve. It took Verdasco five game points to escape with the hold, but he did hold and has managed to stay on serve. He is very much still in this set.

First set: Verdasco 3-3 Nadal

Nadal tries to angle an inside-out forehand across the court from the deuce side corner, but it goes wide (he challenges incorrectly). Love-15. He goes behind Verdasco with a pretty forehand down the line, setting himself up for a smash, which he calmly puts away. Verdasco nets back-to-back slices, and Nadal is up 40-15 quickly. Another errant shot from the underdog, a missed crosscourt forehand, sees Nadal hold comfortably.

First set: Verdasco 4-3 Nadal

A great rally to start this game: Verdasco moves Nadal this way and that, finally pulling the trigger with an inside-in forehand that proves unreturnable. He’s exhibiting the right degree of aggression; he is often the aggressor in rallies but isn’t going for unrealistic shots. An ace makes it 30-love, then a sharp return from Nadal rushes Verdasco and he nets a backhand. A heavy wide serve from the 14th seed gives him two game points. He’s serving very well, and showing that he can hold his own in baseline rallies, as he does in the next point, outlasting his opponent who nets a backhand. His play so far bodes very well for him — not to mention, he looks composed and prepared for a brutal match. But he can’t afford to lose his focus; Nadal could overrun him very quickly.

First set: Verdasco 4-4 Nadal

Verdasco shanks a forehand from a neutral position. That’ll hurt. Nadal answers a short return not by spinning a forehand away, but by cutting an angled drop shot, and the tactic proves effective as Verdasco’s dink sails well wide. Nadal smacks a forehand wide, giving Verdasco a slight opening at 30-15, which then widens: Verdasco bangs a backhand down the line, then glides to the net and pokes a volley winner. This is a huge point at 30-all. Nadal wins it quickly, directing a backhand down the line that Verdasco returns long. The 14th seed goes for an aggressive second serve return, but he drills it into the net.

First set: Verdasco 5-4 Nadal

Verdasco puts away a swing volley winner (he was fortunate as it clipped the net tape, then went over), showing his willingness to move forward. He swats a forehand well wide, but serves well for 30-15. Another service winner followed by his third unreturned serve of the game wrap up an impressive hold. He’s surpassed many expectations already, and will now be rewarded by forcing Nadal to serve to stay in the set.

First set: Verdasco 5-5 Nadal

Verdasco’s return is spectacular, an angled crosscourt backhand, and he lashes Nadal’s defensive reply with a forehand winner deep into the right corner. He’s three points from the set, which quickly becomes two as he punishes a Nadal second serve with a curling crosscourt forehand winner. Nadal has to win the next three points to get out of the woods, which he does: a whistling inside-out forehand forces an error, he survives an early assault from Verdasco (who nets a backhand), and he muscles a service winner. That’s great tennis under pressure, he would have been down set point if he’d lost any of those three points. Instead his efforts see him stand at game point, though Verdasco pulls back to deuce as Nadal sends an angled forehand wide. Unfazed, the world number one forces an error with a sharp inside-in forehand. Yet it’s deuce again as Verdasco pummels Nadal’s second serve, landing a backhand on the baseline that Nadal reaches but doesn’t have a hope of shoveling back in. The top seed crushes his second ace of the match, unexpectedly serving to his countryman’s forehand. An identical tactic then yields another ace, this one out wide! Amazing decision-making and nerveless tennis from Nadal.

First set: Verdasco 6-5 Nadal

Nadal wins a moderately long rally, ending when Verdasco nets a backhand. The 14th seed would do well to knuckle down here, a break could be crippling. He forces Nadal to hit long for 15-all, then stops the point to challenge one of Nadal’s shots that landed near the baseline. HawkEye reveals that it was in by about half a millimeter, and Verdasco is up against it at 15-30. He smiles at the tiny margin by which he was wrong, then forgets about it and nails a gutsy forehand winner after missing his first serve. It’s another important moment at 30-all, and this time Verdasco does blink, nervously dumping a forehand into the net. It wasn’t close to going over. Amazingly, this is Nadal’s first break point of the match, and he doesn’t get a chance to get into the point as Verdasco barrels a massive serve down the middle. He’s facing another break point after he sends a backhand long, however. His first serve is out, but his second pushes Nadal wide, opening up the court for an unreturnable crosscourt backhand. Nadal was too far back on the return, but that was impressive proactive play from Verdasco. He clubs an inside-out forehand winner, then drills an ace out wide for the hold.

Verdasco has answered Nadal’s first serious challenge of his serve, and has earned himself at least a tiebreak this set. The opening frame is always important, but it’s difficult to see Verdasco coming back from a set down. The 14th seed has played some spectacular tennis to put himself in this position; against many other players he would likely have already won this set.

First set: Verdasco 6-6 Nadal

Verdasco dispatches Nadal’s first serve with a clean, smooth backhand winner down the line. What a way to begin a return game. Nadal responds with a service winner, then Verdasco pats a backhand long. 30-15. Verdasco plays a spectacular point for 30-all! Nadal is in control, running his countryman from side to side with penetrating forehands, but Verdasco stays in the rally, then pounds a forehand right on the baseline that sees Nadal hit long! The world number one’s serve is under pressure for the second straight game; Verdasco is two points away from the set for the sixth time. Nadal hasn’t allowed him a look at a set point, though, and keeps his streak intact with a drop shot that Verdasco sends well out. Nadal bends an ace out wide and this outstanding first set will be decided by a tiebreak!

First set tiebreak: Verdasco 1-0 Nadal

Verdasco takes care of his first service point, smacking an inside-out forehand, then sprinting to net and easily blocking a volley winner.

Verdasco 1-1 Nadal

Nadal’s serve down the tee is powerful; Verdasco’s return sails long.

Verdasco 1-2 Nadal

Nadal drills a pair of inside-out forehands, approaching the net behind the second and displaying great touch with a beautiful drop volley winner!

Verdasco 1-3 Nadal

Nadal returns a second serve short, but Verdasco hits well long on an attempted backhand winner. That could be costly.

Verdasco 2-3 Nadal

Verdasco ensures the deficit is limited to a single mini-break, delivering an ace down the middle.

Verdasco 3-3 Nadal

Verdasco gets the mini-break back, forcing an error with a sharp volley! He’s hit 22 winners this set!

Verdasco 3-4 Nadal

Verdasco’s return is hit at a spectacular angle — he might have mishit it — but Nadal smashes a crosscourt backhand in return that isn’t coming back.

Verdasco 4-4 Nadal

Verdasco attacks, coming to net and dispatching an overhead. The tension is rising in what has already been a very dramatic set.

Verdasco 5-4 Nadal

The 14th seed sends a huge serve out wide, Nadal’s return isn’t anywhere near going in. For the seventh time, Verdasco is two points away from winning the set.

Verdasco 6-4 Nadal

What luck for Verdasco and bad fortune for Nadal! A backhand from the former hits the net tape and dies, on the line and mere inches in front of the net. Verdasco holds up his racket in apology.

Verdasco wins the first set 7-6 (4)!

Nadal tries a drop shot early in the rally, Verdasco races forward and curves a forehand down the line into the corner, Nadal can only reply with a lob, and Verdasco swats away the overhead! What a set!

Verdasco hit a staggering 25 winners that set, as well as 20 unforced errors. He served at a surely unsustainable 76%, won 10/13 points at net, and hit five aces. Nadal hit just five unforced errors, but was well behind in the winners category with eight. He didn’t do much wrong; the net cord in the tiebreak was his undoing, though the drop shot on set point wasn’t executed very well.

Similar to what I call the love-30 principle (the server must win three straight points to get to a somewhat safe position at 40-30), Nadal must now win the next two sets to get into a favorable position. Verdasco might want to consider putting everything into the next set in hopes of earning a two-set lead; so often after an attritional, grinding, high-quality set like that, the underdog relaxes for an instant and loses the following set 6-1 or 6-2. Verdasco has played one of the best sets of his career, but he’s still just a third of the way to winning the match. He still doesn’t have room to drop his level at all.

On the other side of things, this second set is just short of a must-win frame for Nadal. He’s come back from two sets down before, but a player never wants to face that big of a deficit, especially not in a major semifinal when the final is looming less than 48 hours later. He might want to come into net more this set; he was 4/4 at the net in the opening frame. But for the most part, he played a fantastic set, serving at 72%. This shows just how well Verdasco has been playing; he won five times as many points with winners as he won courtesy of Nadal’s unforced errors.

Second set: Nadal 1-0 Verdasco

The first set was more important for Verdasco than Nadal, but it’s the top seed who needs the second frame more badly. He makes a great start, slotting a difficult inside-in forehand winner, then Verdasco hits long. An pair of aces see Nadal hold to love; that was pretty much the best start he could’ve made to the second set.

Second set: Nadal 1-1 Verdasco

This game is a very important one. If Verdasco holds easily, I seriously doubt that Nadal will have everything his own way this set (meaning he’ll need to work very hard to win the set). But if Nadal can break, the set could get away from Verdasco in the space of a couple minutes.

A horrible call by the linesperson; Verdasco hit an ace on the line that was called out. Nadal sportingly gives his friend and countryman the point. A big serve from Verdasco followed by a crunching backhand winner down the line make it 40-love in short order, and another backhand winner, this one crosscourt, seals a love hold.

Verdasco’s play has been so impressive thus far, if Nadal was hoping for a dip in intensity from the 14th seed there he’ll be very disappointed. This set could be as closely contested as the first.

Second set: Nadal 2-1 Verdasco

Verdasco had a pretty good look at a forehand passing shot, but netted it. He admonishes himself; he knows exactly how important these games and points are. Nadal serves big, then Verdasco mishits a forehand that sails long. Nadal’s won seven service points in a row, but Verdasco quickly puts a stop to that run by bashing Nadal’s first serve crosscourt for a winner. The world number one misses a forehand, and this game is looking potentially dangerous at 40-30. Nadal forces Verdasco to hit long with a well-placed inside-in forehand, yelling “Vamos!” as his opponent’s shot flies beyond the baseline. He’s still the favorite to win this match, but that could change very quickly if he throws in a loose service game. He did well to avoid trouble there.

Second set: Nadal 2-2 Verdasco

Verdasco opens up the court with fierce forehands, tees up the attempted inside-out forehand winner, and slams it into the net tape. It trickles over for his second fortunate winner today. Nadal misses a return, then another, looping a second serve well out off his backhand side. Now Verdasco has won seven straight service points, and it’s eight as he holds with a gorgeous lob! Nadal didn’t move for it; he knew he was beaten.

Second set: Nadal 3-2 Verdasco

That’s two straight love holds for Verdasco, and each of Nadal’s service games seems more and more important. The world number one kicks off this game with an ace, but then swerves a forehand wide. This is a big point; if he loses it he’ll be down 15-30 and staring a break in the face. Verdasco is up in the point, and has a look at a forehand winner down the line, but hits it well long; it was too central to win him the point even if it had gone in. He may have gotten tight on that shot. It’s soon 40-15 and Nadal holds with an emphatic forehand winner down the line.

Second set: Nadal 3-3 Verdasco

Nadal is warned for a coaching violation, reported by the line judge, and Nadal is frustrated, citing that Verdasco’s coach is also offering assistance from the stands. It wasn’t an official warning, however.

This game begins with an outstanding rally; it seems to be completely neutral for the vast majority of the time, then Verdasco forces Nadal into a defensive slice and ropes a beautiful backhand winner down the line that ends up right in the corner. A big serve and an errant forehand from Nadal see Verdasco in the ascendancy with three game points, and only one is needed as he smashes an ace down the middle. Nadal hasn’t won a point against serve this set, and he hasn’t been returning noticeably badly. Instead of Verdasco’s level dropping, it’s gone up. Nadal could be in some serious trouble.

Second set: Nadal 4-3 Verdasco

Verdasco strokes a forehand winner into the left corner, and the alarm bells have to be clanging in Nadal’s head at love-15. He tries a drop shot, and Verdasco bounds forward, pushing an easy backhand down the line for a winner. Given the ease with which Verdasco has been holding serve so far this set, Nadal really can’t afford to lose his serve here. The world number one surely knows this, and drills a service winner to Verdasco’s forehand. An ace, again directed to the forehand side, makes it 30-all, and another serve to the forehand catches out Verdasco for an ace! That’s Nadal for you, even with a serve that isn’t a prolific ace-hitter, he finds a way to make it work from him. Incredibly clutch serving. A fourth consecutive unreturned serve is fired across the court, coaxing a cry of “Venga!” from Nadal. He’s fired up, but he hasn’t dented the Verdasco serve yet this set, and another tiebreak would likely see his opponent as the favorite.

Second set: Nadal 4-4 Verdasco

Verdasco scorches a forehand winner down the line, putting him up 15-love and extending his streak of points won on serve this set to 13. It does end on the next point, with Verdasco netting a backhand, and we may get a look at the negative value of a streak. Winning many points on serve in a row can create an unreasonable expectation for a hold to love in every game, and when that doesn’t happen it can snowball, resulting in a break. Verdasco is eager to avoid this, blistering a massive serve out wide for 30-15, but Nadal anticipates a forehand that Verdasco struck right on top of the net, slashing a forehand pass for 30-all. Huge point. Nadal defends well, gets his teeth into the rally, then forces the court open and pounds an inside-out forehand winner. This is likely one of the bigger break points Nadal has had in his career, but it disappears in a flash as Verdasco produces another big serve. Verdasco follows that by slicing into the net, though, and Nadal will have another chance. The 14th seed whips an ace down the middle. Amazing. He can’t reach advantage, however, and a missed backhand brings up the third break point. Verdasco misses a first serve, but Nadal’s return off the second is short and the underdog guides a backhand winner into the open court. Nadal anticipates another approach, again firing a gorgeous pass crosscourt. Break point again — the quality of this match has been unbelievably good; this game’s been spectacular. Nadal breaks a string on a second serve return; that’s terrible luck. He’ll have to put it behind him. Verdasco fearlessly attacks, pummeling a jumping smash for advantage. This would be an incredible hold, and he wins the game with an inside-out forehand winner!

What a game. If there was any doubt about Verdasco’s mettle before, it’s gone now. He saved four break points that game — two with winners and another with a tremendous service winner. If he can get into this return game, he could very well be serving for a two-set lead in a few minutes. Nadal played a very good game there and lost it anyway; in that sense it was a microcosm of the first set. He needs to be sharp in the next game. The momentum is squarely behind Verdasco at the moment.

Second set: Nadal 5-4 Verdasco

Nadal nails an amazing inside-out forehand while falling backward, finishing the point with a smash. He then sends down his first double fault of the match, the first for either player for that matter. Nadal bangs an inside-out forehand winner for 30-15, then flays a big serve down the middle. Verdasco is muttering angrily to himself; he’s a tough critic because he’s been close to perfect so far this match. Nadal hits well long for 40-30, but a good serve out wide completes a very, very important hold.

Nadal wins the second set 6-4!

Verdasco changes his shirt, drawing whistles and cheers from the crowd. An extended rally begins this game, ending when the 14th seed misses a forehand. Nadal is three points from the set. Verdasco blasts an ace down the middle for 15-all. He then punches an inside-in forehand swing volley; Nadal reached it but netted his riposte. A good one-two punch from Verdasco makes it 40-15, Nadal is frustrated with the depth of his return. He forces Verdasco wide on the next point, who goes for a winner and cracks it into the net. The underdog flicks a forehand long and all of a sudden it’s deuce. Both players need to be very careful here.

That’s the point of the match!! Verdasco throws everything at Nadal: deep crosscourt backhands, a backhand down the line, a fiercely angled forehand, and a vicious sliced backhand loaded with sidespin, but Nadal chases down all of them, then sweeps a lovely, spinning, dipping forehand down the line that completely surprises Verdasco and the entire crowd, landing in the corner for a winner! Verdasco smiles after the point; not much to say there but “too good”. Set point, and Nadal evens the match as Verdasco hits a forehand long! He bends into a crouch and roars as the crowd erupts. This is a match of supreme quality.

That was a vital set for Nadal. He threatened to break in the eighth game, but Verdasco saved four break points in style. It became evident that Nadal was going to have to do something special to win the set, and he delivered, winning an astonishing rally to reach set point. Verdasco made a couple untimely errors in the 4-5 game, but played a fantastic set overall: 17 winners to just 7 unforced errors, 6/8 points won at net, and a first serve percentage of 71%.

Unfortunately for Verdasco, Nadal played a slightly better set. The world number one has hit a mind-bogglingly low 10 unforced errors (over two hours of play), and hit 13 winners that set. He made 89% of his first serves, another ridiculous stat.

Verdasco is now the player in trouble — in all likelihood, he’s played better than he ever has for these first two sets, and he’s lost one of them. His first one or two service games in the third will be massively important. I feel like a broken record, but again he can’t allow his level to dip at all. He did a splendid job of that in the second set, and lost it anyway, but he’ll lose the third 6-1 if he doesn’t remain utterly focused.

This has been a brilliant match. Verdasco has hit 42 winners and 27 unforced errors so far, to Nadal’s 21 winners and 10 unforced errors. Both players are serving well, moving well, and performing well under pressure. This has certainly been the highest quality match played on the men’s tour since the Wimbledon final last year.

Third set: Nadal 1-0 Verdasco

Nadal misses a regulation forehand for love-15. An early break would be huge for Verdasco, to reverse the momentum and restore his belief. Nadal punches an inside-out forehand winner, then fires an unreturned serve. Verdasco has a look at a winner on the next point, set up by a great return, but he’s too central with the attempt and eventually misses a volley. Another heavy, deep return shoots off Verdasco’s racket, this time forcing Nadal to net, but Verdasco misses a backhand and Nadal holds.

Third set: Nadal 2-0 Verdasco

Nadal’s won three games in a row — Verdasco needs to hold here to reassert himself. He badly misses a backhand wide, but levels after the latest epic rally! He defends well, then runs down a drop shot and manages to land his reply in the corner of the service box for a winner. He then closes the net behind a precise crosscourt backhand, casually volleying a winner. He repeats the trick at 30-15, blocking a backhand volley safely into the open court. His level is still so high. Verdasco tries to bury a backhand down the line, but the angle is a bit off and it floats past the sideline. Nadal returns a first serve deep, running his countryman around with sharply angled forehands, and Verdasco misses quickly. Nadal is really testing his legs now. The 14th seed misses a short backhand, and the break point he faces now feels crucial. He evades it with great ballstriking, a smooth backhand down the line setting him up for an inside-out forehand winner. Nadal is hitting his groundstrokes well, though, and bullies Verdasco around the court until the underdog misses a forehand. He saves the second break point, approaching the net and somehow scooping a volley winner off of an incredibly low pass! That’s one of the shots of the match. A one-two punch sees him reach advantage, and this is a big point; this game is reminiscient of the 3-4 game in the second.

Nadal isn’t letting him out of this game, he runs Verdasco corner to corner for what feels like the 10th time this game, crushing an inside-in forehand winner. No matter who wins this game, it’s doing no favors for Verdasco’s legs. He finds an ace to reach game point again, but Nadal moves him around the court yet again, forcing Verdasco to go for a low-percentage backhand, which he misses. Verdasco issues an incorrect challenge and is facing another break point, which he saves with a powerful forehand that causes Nadal to slice into the net. The top seed punches his racket in annoyance. Verdasco sends a sitting volley long, and it’s his turn for a frustrated reaction; he swats the net with his racket. And Nadal breaks! He chases down a short volley, unleashing a spinning forehand pass deep into the corner! That could be a backbreaker for Verdasco.

Third set: Nadal 2-1 Verdasco

Verdasco tosses up a lob, Nadal tries for a skyhook smash and it’s wide. The feeling is that he needs to break back here; if he doesn’t he’ll have lost five straight games. He’s making a push, and rips a crosscourt forehand return past Nadal for love-30! Verdasco has suddenly found a rich vein of form, and slots a line-kissing backhand winner down the line after a great rally! Nadal goes for a risky forehand down the line and it’s wide! Verdasco breaks to love — who saw that coming? What an impressive turnaround. He celebrates with a yell and a steely look at his box.

Third set: Nadal 2-2 Verdasco

The crowd is buzzing; they know that matches of such quality are few and far between.

Nadal ropes a forehand pass crosscourt for a clean winner — Verdasco’s been good with his approach shots this match but that last one wasn’t good enough. He serves well for 15-all, then crushes a giant inside-out forehand winner. A sweeping wide serve paints the line and defeats Nadal’s sliding, slicing return, which lands in the net. Another big serve completes the hold, and Verdasco is right back in the set.

Third set: Nadal 3-2 Verdasco

Verdasco lays into a Nadal second serve, banging a backhand winner down the line. He goes for another return winner, but his forehand is stopped by the top of the net. Misses like that are inevitable given Verdasco’s aggressive style this match, and another one arrives on the next point: an attempted inside-in forehand winner lands just wide. 30-15. Verdasco is still playing some great tennis, and he opens up the court enough to smack a crosscourt backhand winner. Now it’s Nadal feeling the strain; he had a 2-0 lead and his serve is now being threatened for a second straight time. He breathes a sigh of relief as Verdasco misses a second serve return, but an awful drop shot allows the 14th seed to amble forward and pat a winner. Deuce. Nadal sails a forehand long, and Verdasco has a break point to take the lead in this potentially crucial third set. The world number one saves it with a service winner, crying “Vamos!” as Verdasco’s return flies long. Nadal has a game point has Verdasco swings a forehand into the net, which he takes with another service winner. That was an important hold for Nadal; the pressure sways back to Verdasco now.

Third set: Nadal 4-2 Verdasco

Nadal is 2/11 on break points (Verdasco is 1/3), but I can recall at least five of them that Verdasco has saved with big serves or winners, and Nadal broke a string when returning on another. He’s been more opportunistic than the stats suggest.

Verdasco falls behind love-15 — he hits a great approach shot (a forehand down the line) but fails to position himself effectively for the volley, which sails wide and long. This is a crucial period in the set; Verdasco will really want to stay on serve here. He executes a bending crosscourt forehand winner beautifully for 15-all, but even that can’t compare to Nadal’s shot on the next point! He reads an inside-out forehand, flashing a pass down the line, then races forward to retrieve Verdasco’s drop volley. Somehow he gets there, and flicks the ball past the 14th seed! Marvelous. Verdasco evens the game at 30-all with deep hitting.

Nadal wins another spectacular rally! He’s pulled off the court, but blisters a forehand down the line that gets him back in the point, and finally Verdasco nets. Exhausting stuff — break point. Verdasco fires a forehand well long! Nadal is once again in control of the set.

Third set: Nadal 4-3 Verdasco

Verdasco simply refuses to let Nadal run away with this match. The top seed is well in control of the rally, courtesy of a dazzling line-kissing forehand, but Verdasco guesses correctly where Nadal is going with his attempted putaway, and drills a backhand winner down the line! He yells in triumph; this guy isn’t going anywhere for a while yet. He goes for the same shot at love-15, but it goes well long. Nadal nestles a backhand down the line of his own for a winner, right in the corner. 30-15. Verdasco pulls Nadal out of position with a massive, sweeping crosscourt forehand, and Nadal can’t recover. This is a chance for the 14th seed at 30-all, and he has a break point when Nadal makes an uncharacteristic unforced error with his forehand! This is just Verdasco’s fourth break point of the match, but he takes it with another backhand winner down the line, struck with amazing precision! He raises a fist to his box, followed by an open-hand celebration that he exchanges with his friend and father. His resilience has been remarkable so far.

Third set: Nadal 4-4 Verdasco

Nadal anticipates Verdasco’s approach shot, cracking a backhand winner down the line in a near mirror-image of the first point last game. A return error makes it 15-all, then Verdasco comes to net, cutting a low, well-angled volley. Nadal somehow reaches it, and his short lob is clearly going out, but Verdasco decides to play it anyway and hammers a smash winner. 30-all and a big moment in this game and the set. Verdasco goes on the attack, approaching the net again behind a vicious inside-out forehand, and bounces another smash into the seats for game point. Nadal does well to stay in the next rally, sneaking a low backhand slice over the net that barely bounces, forcing Verdasco to net a slice. More attacking tennis sees Verdasco reach advantage, and he holds with a service winner! Another huge momentum swing.

Third set: Nadal 5-4 Verdasco

Nadal nails a pair of service winners for 30-love, then Verdasco treats his first second serve of the game with contempt, crunching a pacy forehand return winner. The 14th seed is a little slow in reaching a Nadal inside-in forehand, though, and it ticks off the frame of his racket. They’ve been playing extremely physical tennis for over three hours now, and it’s impressive that neither player has really shown a dip in focus or quality yet. This match has been intense from the very first game.

Third set: Nadal 5-5 Verdasco

Verdasco failed to serve to stay in the set in the second, he’ll have to accomplish the task now, or else fall behind two sets to one. He had been up 40-15 before falling to a burst of brilliance from Nadal. A spectacular rally immediately takes place; Verdasco defends well and Nadal sends a forehand wide after at least 20 shots. A big serve and an error from the underdog make it 30-15, and Nadal evens the game with a great angled forehand that draws a yell of despair from his opponent. Verdasco must be feeling the nerves at 30-all, but you wouldn’t know it as he hits the corner of the service box with a wide delivery. Another massive serve secures the hold.

Third set: Nadal 6-5 Verdasco

Nadal forces an error with a sharply angled crosscourt forehand, then blasts an ace down the middle. He’s served well this match, especially under pressure. Verdasco tries to tee off on a second serve return but hits it wildly into the net: 40-love. Nadal double faults, trying to go for a big second serve — the time to double fault, if there is one, is at 40-love. Nadal holds with a gasp-inducing crosscourt forehand — what an angle.

Third set: Nadal 6-6 Verdasco

Verdasco, serving to stay in the third set once more, powers a service winner and an ace to reach 30-love. Nadal misses a second serve return — Verdasco unbalanced him with a slower second serve than usual. Three game points. Verdasco nets a forehand after a powerful return from Nadal, then seeks too ambitious of an angle on his backhand at it’s 40-30. The misses prove irrelevant as Verdasco crushes an ace down the middle. This third-set tiebreak will most likely decide the match.

Third set tiebreak: Nadal 1-0 Verdasco

Nadal pounds a service winner.

Nadal 1-1 Verdasco

Verdasco patiently rallies, then pounces on a slightly short Nadal groundstroke and scorches a forehand winner down the line.

Nadal 2-1 Verdasco

Verdasco badly overhits a forehand, ceding the first mini-break.

Nadal 3-1 Verdasco

A finely angled forehand from Nadal thwarts Verdasco, whose return dribbles into the net.

Nadal 4-1 Verdasco

Verdasco tries to line up a return winner on Nadal’s second serve, but hits it well long and wide.

Nadal 4-2 Verdasco

Verdasco stays in touch with a one-two punch, bashing an inside-out forehand winner.

Nadal 5-2 Verdasco

Nadal seizes a second mini-break; he is now firmly in control of this tiebreak. Verdasco loops a forehand wide.

Nadal 6-2 Verdasco

Nadal delivers an exceptional one-two punch, cutting an inside-out forehand winner at an incredibly sharp angle. Four set points.

Nadal wins the third set 7-6 (2)!

Nadal clubs an ace down the middle! He roars, beating his chest once. He politely asks umpire Jake Garner for a toilet break.

That was an incredibly important set. Verdasco’s unforced error count climbed in that set: 25 of them to 24 winners, but he showed incredible mental resilience to break back twice and stay in the set. He also made 70% of his first serves and converted 2/3 break points. Besides “make fewer errors”, there’s not much advice that would do him good, and his strategy — which has been an effective one — is to go for the lines, so the errors are a by-product of his winners.

Nadal did well to stave off a break point at 2-all, which could have sent him into a tailspin, and played a brilliant tiebreak. He hit 11 winners to seven unforced errors that set — he’s only made 17 unforced errors all match!

I don’t anticipate Verdasco folding, even though losing that set hurts him badly. He stayed in the match well in the third after falling behind 2-0, and now that his back is against the wall he may go for even more with his shots.

Federer, who is undoubtedly watching this match, is probably a bit intimidated at the outstanding form of both men and grateful for the incredible physicality of the match that’s likely to tire out the winner.

Fourth set: Verdasco 1-0 Nadal

Verdasco executes a great half-volley, landing deep in Nadal’s court, that sets him up for a putaway. Nadal responds by lashing a crosscourt forehand return winner for 15-all. Verdasco crushes an ace, and already the quality in this set is quite impressive. A service winner and another ace from Verdasco seal a fantastic hold. Four of the five points played that game were winners, and the fifth was an unreturned serve.

Fourth set: Verdasco 1-1 Nadal

Nadal begins this game with a double fault, his third of the match. Verdasco makes him feel the sting of the error by forcing him to net on the following point: love-30. Verdasco’s made an excellent start to the fourth set. Of course, right after I type that, he takes a wild, wild swing at a first serve return, sending the ball sailing out of play. Another missed return brings Nadal level at 30-all, and he pulls Verdasco off the court with a forehand, urging him to go for a winner. Verdasco does, and nets it. Nadal holds to 30 with an ace. Verdasco missed a big opportunity there.

Fourth set: Verdasco 2-1 Nadal

A Nadal backhand pass sees Verdasco err on a volley. He serves well for 15-all, but Nadal reads an approach and sweeps a forehand pass down the line for a clean winner. This is a huge moment at 15-30; Verdasco can’t afford to be broken here. He pounds a pair of huge serves, seeing daylight at 40-30, yet a netted backhand prolong the game. Verdasco shows clearheaded thinking under pressure, drawing Nadal to the net with a drop shot and stroking a swing volley past him. An errant forehand makes for deuce #2, though, and this game feels more important by the point. Verdasco fires a spectacular forehand behind Nadal, who was racing back into position. He roars. Nadal makes an astonishing get on the next point that keeps him in the rally, but he nets a forehand not five seconds later.

Fourth set: Verdasco 2-2 Nadal

The trainer is working on Verdasco’s left leg — this match has gone on for three hours and 40 minutes.

Verdasco slices into the net after a longish rally; there’s a bit of a sense that he’s tiring. He slices wide on the next point as well. He’s going to that shot more and more often, and it’s let him down. He doesn’t run for a Nadal backhand winner, then misses a slice on the run. Verdasco’s movement didn’t look great that game. Let’s hope there’s nothing serious going on.

Fourth set: Verdasco 3-2 Nadal

If Verdasco is tired and/or injured, his serve becomes doubly important. A service winner makes it 15-love, and a great second serve coaxes a missed return from Nadal. It’s 40-love with an ace, and a service winner completes a love hold.

He’s getting more treatment on the changeover — it appears that he’s now conserving energy to win his service games.

Fourth set: Verdasco 3-3 Nadal

Scratch that — Verdasco begins this game with a beautiful backhand return winner of Nadal’s first serve, directed down the line and hit with pace. Nadal makes it 15-all with a good serve, then gets to work moving Verdasco back and forth across the baseline — the 14th seed slices a forehand into the net, then crouches in exhaustion. Nadal catches Verdasco out of position, spinning an inside-in forehand winner, then holds with a good serve.

Fourth set: Verdasco 4-3 Nadal

Verdasco opens up the court with fierce forehands, then closes the net, slapping away a tough overhead. The feeling is that if Nadal can break here, it might break Verdasco’s spirit. Verdasco misses a forehand by inches, but puts away a volley for 30-15 after Nadal had returned his overhead. He crunches an angled crosscourt forehand winner — two game points — and crashes an inside-out forehand winner to hold. He is still a factor, though his best chance to win the set probably lies in a tiebreak, and he’ll have to hold serve twice more to get there.

Fourth set: Verdasco 4-4 Nadal

Nadal fires a service winner down the middle, Verdasco netting the return. He runs around his next return, crushing a deep crosscourt forehand for a winner. 15-all. Another big serve from Nadal is matched by another powerful return from Verdasco, this one forcing an error, and here’s the most pressured point on serve Nadal has faced in some time at 30-all. The world number one coolly unloads an ace down the middle for game point; his play on important points is really something else.

And that’s the point of the match! Nadal wins a scrambling, pirouetting, bizarre rally for 4-all! It begins when Nadal spins around at the back of the court after returning a forehand from Verdasco, who takes control of the point with two huge, heavy forehands, the second going down the line and tailing away from Nadal. The top seed somehow returns it, throwing up a lob, to which Verdasco responds by crouching at the net and hitting a smash with all the strength he can muster. Nadal, on the dead run, shovels the ball back, Verdasco hits a deep crosscourt forehand, and Nadal takes it right of the bounce, passing Verdasco cleanly with his own crosscourt forehand. The crowd is in hysterics; that was probably the point of the tournament!

Perhaps best of all: as soon as Verdasco was passed at net, he looked at Nadal with a disbelieving grin on his face. The world number one, who had raised a fist in celebration and is known not to smile on court, saw Verdasco grin and returned the smile with his fist pointed skyward. What a point, what a moment. And the match continues.

Fourth set: Verdasco 5-4 Nadal

Verdasco replies to Nadal’s heroics by slamming an inside-out forehand winner after a second serve, then overwhelming Nadal with pace until the world number one hits long. And there’s some magic from Verdasco! A frantic rally takes place, with each player scrambling to retrieve the opposition’s angles, Nadal sends Verdasco sprinting to his right with a biting slice, and Verdasco not only gets there, he cuts an absolutely gorgeous drop shot. It lands close to the net and takes a wicked bounce to the right. Nadal didn’t move for it, which tells you how good it was. The underdog bellows in celebration; he clearly still believes he can win. Verdasco holds with a hefty second serve. He couldn’t have responded better to the brilliant point at the end of the last game.

Fourth set: Verdasco 5-5 Nadal

Verdasco has a decent look at a forehand winner, but barrels it long. This match is into its fifth hour — Nadal has shown no signs of fatigue besides the sweat soaking his shirt and headband, and Verdasco seems to be willing to rally again. There was a slight lull in the middle of this fourth set, but the last few games have been tennis played at a near-celestial level. Nadal angles a backhand wide, lifting Verdasco to within three points of the third set. The 14th seed goes for a backhand return winner, hits it wide. He then overpowers Nadal with a huge crosscourt backhand, and jogs around the back of the court in celebration afterward. He’s two points from the set, but Nadal quickly wins the next point, landing a forehand on the baseline. He holds with an aggressive backhand.

Fourth set: Verdasco 6-5 Nadal

Verdasco sets up a one-two punch, pounding an inside-out forehand winner. He follows it with his first double fault of the semifinal, compared to 15 aces — not bad at all. But it puts him in a potentially awkward position at 15-all. Of course, he smashes an ace out wide, then another down the tee for 40-15. He now has 83 winners. Eighty-three! It’s just the fourth set! Nadal can’t do more than flap his racket at the next missile serve, and Verdasco holds. He’s earned himself at least a tiebreak.

Fourth set: Verdasco 6-6 Nadal

Verdasco pulls a forehand wide. If he falls behind in this game, it might be wise to let the game go and start thinking about the tiebreak. He nets a second serve return for 30-love. Nadal finds the line with a viciously angled forehand; Verdasco remains stock-still on the baseline. And it’ll be a third tiebreak as Verdasco misses a return.

Fourth set tiebreak: Verdasco 1-0 Nadal

Can’t start a tiebreak better than that! Verdasco patiently waits for the attackable ball, driving it to Nadal’s forehand. Nadal’s return is mishit, and lands on the left sideline. Verdasco drives it crosscourt at a crazy angle, sending Nadal scampering past the umpire’s chair. The world number one somehow slices it back, and Verdasco goes behind him, slotting a forehand winner into the corner. He clenches a fist, staring intently at his box.

Verdasco 2-0 Nadal

Verdasco bangs a big forehand return, Nadal can’t get it back!

Verdasco 3-0 Nadal

Wow! Verdasco returns deep, then unloads on a forehand winner down the line. He immediately yells in triumph, exchanging an open-hand celebration with his friend in his box, who is similarly excited. The atmosphere is electric at the moment.

Verdasco 4-0 Nadal

Verdasco works the point beautifully, finally coming to net and delicately dropping a short volley for a winner. He’s reaching new heights in this tiebreak, which is saying something.

Verdasco 5-0 Nadal

Nadal nets a forehand! This is unbelievable.

Verdasco 6-0 Nadal

Verdasco is playing like the world number one against the world number one. His shots are finding the lines as if missile-guided. Thinking with amazing clarity and hitting with brutal power, he slams a deep return, angles an inside-out backhand, then demolishes another forehand down the line, Nadal nowhere near the ball. Nadal and everyone in Rod Laver Arena, besides Verdasco, I think, are a bit stunned.

Verdasco 6-1 Nadal

Verdasco takes a massive cut at a Nadal first serve and it isn’t close to going in. That’s the time to try crazy shots though; that miss won’t cost him.

Verdasco wins the fourth set 7-6 (1)!

Verdasco smashes a huge serve down the middle that was never coming back. He screams, beating his chest all the way back to his chair. What a breathtaking tiebreak. Three forehand winners, a huge serve, a volley winner, and a deep return that forced an error. Nadal made one unforced error and no winners. Verdasco didn’t give him the opportunity to hit any.

This match could go either way. Nadal looked the stronger for much of the fourth set, but Verdasco found a level in the tiebreak that few have ever reached in their careers. He’s likely juiced up on adrenaline now, meaning he won’t have physical difficulties in the fifth set as he did in the fourth.

Verdasco hit 21 winners that set, and just nine unforced errors. He served at 70% and hit five aces. He didn’t see a single break point but he neutered that stat with what is surely one of the best performances in a tiebreak of all time.

Nadal needs to reset, and quickly. After such a devastating tiebreak, he needs to remind himself of patterns that work, and that he’s won two sets already. He made 80% of his first serves that set; it’s hard to do better than that. As with the first set, he did few things wrong (two aces, eight winners, four unforced errors), he was just rendered helpless as the Verdasco train rolled through the tiebreak.

He’s incredibly fit, and probably won’t be physically compromised in the fifth set. His challenges will be more mental than physical. Unquestionably, he has the game to win the decider.

What a match this has become. The fifth is yet to happen, but the first four sets have been on a par with the opening four frames of Wimbledon final last year for my money. Even if the fifth is a bagel, the first four sets alone will lift this match into the company of the best tennis contests ever.

Fifth set: Nadal 1-0 Verdasco

Nadal approaches the net — Verdasco’s forehand pass down the line carries some serious pace, but the world number one is ready for it and dinks a volley winner. He then pulls Verdasco out of position, forcing him to net a forehand. The 14th seed then returns long. An easy hold is just what Nadal needs, and an easy hold he gets when Verdasco returns long again (“Venga!”).

Fifth set: Nadal 1-1 Verdasco

Nadal defends well, repelling the Verdasco forehand fusillade, but a shot from the 14th seed is incorrectly called out, forcing them to replay the point. Verdasco sends a backhand wide — he has to be careful; he’s lost the first five points of the decider and Nadal has totally erased the fourth set tiebreak from his mind. Verdasco is in real trouble at love-30 as Nadal returns brilliantly, pounding a crosscourt forehand on the stretch that sails past his countryman for a winner. Verdasco overpowers Nadal with a forehand, then drills a crosscourt backhand that sees Nadal slice into the net. 30-all. The world number one takes advantage of a net cord, racing forward behind a slice and pounding an overhead away. Nadal pumps his fist. He looks utterly determined and it’s clear that Verdasco still has a mountainous task ahead of him. Break point. Verdasco closes the net, taking a major risk by directing his approach to Nadal’s forehand. The top seed’s pass sails down the line, past Verdasco…and misses by centimeters.

Nadal cracks a backhand down the line, drawing his grunt out in celebration, and he’ll have another break point. The quality is already spectacular in this fifth set. Verdasco, not ready to capitulate yet, crushes an ace to save the break point. Verdasco then does well to survive an onslaught from Nadal, who eventually nets a backhand. Both guys’ legs must be screaming at this point, even with the adrenaline of the moment. Verdasco serves big down the middle to hold. That was crucial.

Fifth set: Nadal 2-1 Verdasco

Nadal delivers back-to-back service winners. He then produces an amazing slice, which couldn’t have bounced more than a foot high, finishing the point well at net with a drop volley. He holds to love when Verdasco nets a forehand.

Verdasco is going to need all his resolve to win this, and even to make it close. Nadal hasn’t lost a point on serve yet, and was an inch away from taking a 2-0 lead.

Fifth set: Nadal 2-2 Verdasco

Verdasco could do with an easy hold here; Nadal’s quickly neutralized his momentum from the fourth set and has been the better player in the early stages of the fifth set.

He makes a good start with an ace out wide, then moves to 30-love with a service winner. Nadal’s groundstrokes are so sharp at the moment, which is why Verdasco’s serve is so crucial — he dominates a baseline rally, ending it with a well-angled forehand winner. Verdasco cleverly pulls Nadal to net with a drop shot, then ropes a clean backhand past him. He holds comfortably with a good serve.

Fifth set: Nadal 3-2 Verdasco

Nadal drives a forehand into the corner, then slices a delicate drop shot for a winner. He’s playing all the right shots. He just misses an attempted forehand winner — his first point lost on serve this set. Nadal serves well for 30-15, then slams an overhead winner for two game points. Verdasco goes for a forehand winner down the line and lifts it long. Nadal’s won 12 of 13 points on serve in the fifth set.

Fifth set: Nadal 3-3 Verdasco

Nadal misses a second serve return; misses like that have been scarce this set and this match. Verdasco pummels Nadal with groundstrokes — the top seed does well to stay in the rally — for 30-love. Verdasco sneaks a backhand wide, then Nadal outlasts him in the next rally and what appeared a simple game has become complicated at 30-all. Verdasco double faults! Break point for Nadal, his third of the set. As he’s done so many times this match, Verdasco thunders down a huge serve to save the break point. Another big serve gives Verdasco advantage, and he holds as Nadal mistimes a second serve return badly.

Fifth set: Nadal 4-3 Verdasco

Verdasco has been clutch this fifth set. Nadal has been the better player, but Verdasco’s done so well to hang in the set. Nadal forces Verdasco to hit long with a sharp inside-out forehand, then nails a forehand winner for 30-love. The 14th seed nets a backhand, and Nadal is poised for his fourth straight easy hold. Verdasco nets a second serve return, and he’s still won just one point on the return in the fifth.

Fifth set: Nadal 4-4 Verdasco

An epic point to start this game. The Spanish lefties trade forehands, pushing each other farther and farther off the court. Verdasco is the first to change direction and he wins the point at net. Nadal nets a forehand for 30-love. The 14th seed sends a forehand long, and he needs to be careful here — in his last service game he was pegged back from 30-love to break point. This game may be headed the same way; Verdasco doesn’t do enough at net and Nadal defeats him with a pass combination. This is a massive point at 30-all, and Verdasco nets a backhand! Nadal has a break point to serve for the match. Verdasco lands a big first serve and works his way into position to crack an enormous inside-out forehand winner. He has been so clutch on break points.

Verdasco swats a backhand long, and Nadal has another break point, but he lifts a forehand long! Verdasco’s saved five break points this set! Nadal slices wide, and Verdasco has a game point, which he takes with an ace!

This match is just unbelievable.

Fifth set: Nadal 5-4 Verdasco

Verdasco hits a great return, putting him on the front foot in the rally, and he forces Nadal to net after sending him scrambling around the baseline. He then overpowers Nadal with a barrage of pace, and he has love-30 for the first time in this set! Verdasco lifts a forehand wide under no pressure; how he’ll rue that miss. He then nets a second serve return! Nadal happily accepts Verdasco’s gifts, crunching an inside-out forehand and putting away an overhead. Game point. Nadal lashes a gorgeous forehand winner down the line to hold!

Any break point Verdasco faces this game will be a match point; he is serving to stay in the semifinal. This game will bring some extra pressure.

Rafael Nadal beats Fernando Verdasco 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (2), 6-7 (1), 6-4!

The crowd goes wild as the players come out to play this game. They’re getting their money’s worth and more: what a rally. Verdasco controls the initial stages with his backhand, then Nadal gets into the point, and finally Verdasco slices wearily into the net. Nadal return is deep, Verdasco’s shot is long, and Nadal is two points from victory at love-30.

Verdasco double faults!! That was so untimely; Nadal now has three match points. This is now the longest match in Australian Open history!

Verdasco saves the first match point with a swing volley winner. He saves the second match point with a swing volley winner.

Verdasco double faults! What an unfortunate way for this match to end. Nadal falls to his back, Verdasco falls to his knees, and they meet on Verdasco’s side of the court. They have a lovely exchange, presumably Nadal is apologizing that someone had to lose, and Verdasco is wishing Nadal good luck in the final.

Verdasco walks off the court to huge cheers. He is surely devastated, but hopefully he knows that he has delivered a performance that will make tennis fans talk about in reverential tones for years. He hit 95 winners (almost 24 games’ worth of winners), including 20 aces, was 2/4 on break points, and landed 69% of his first serves. He played tennis that could easily be considered godly in the fourth set tiebreak.

And Nadal shows once again why he is the best player in the world. Despite not having a particularly powerful serve, he was dominant on serve in the fifth set, as he was in the 2008 Wimbledon final. Given that he didn’t seem to struggle too much physically this match, he is very much still a threat to win the final, though he will be an underdog.

A Brief Analysis

It’s very rare that a tennis match doesn’t have a lull. This match achieved that unusual quality. Each set could have gone either way — even in the second and fifth sets, during which Verdasco never had a break point, he had love-30 on Nadal’s serve late in the set.

Verdasco unquestionably played the match of his career (to slip into the present for a moment, he hasn’t reproduced this quality since). It’s rare, again, that a player delivers the match of their life and loses anyway. Such is the power of Rafael Nadal’s game and mind.

Nadal demonstrates again his prowess in deciding sets. As with the 2008 Wimbledon final, he was the lighter server by some distance, but took care of his service games far more easily. After losing a brutal fourth set, his play early in the fifth hinted that he was focused entirely on the points he was playing, not lost rallies in the past. He generated break points in every return game except one in the fifth set, while winning 12 of his first 13 points on serve in the decider.

Nadal made 73% of his first serves during the 2008 Wimbledon final, and he made 74% in this match. He is a big match player.

Was this match better than the 2008 Wimbledon final? In terms of stakes, historical importance, and stylistic appeal, no. But in terms of tennis, very possibly. Out of the 385 points played, 147 ended with a winner (38.2% of points), while at the Wimbledon final in 2008, 149 of 413 points played ended in a winner (36.1%). In this semifinal, both players were near the top of their games for virtually the entire time, whereas the Wimbledon final had some dips by each player (in the second set, for instance, when Nadal fell behind 4-1 and Federer lost the next five games in a row, making several unforced errors). Each time Verdasco lost his serve, it took a huge effort from Nadal (bar the last game of the match), and when Nadal was broken back twice in the third, it was more down to Verdasco’s great returning than his own errors — the 14th seed hit two winners in each game he broke serve in the third set (and that’s leaving out errors he forced from Nadal).

So, putting it all together, I think that this match produced quality that is at least as high as any men’s contest that’s taken place.

Thanks for reading! If you have feedback or questions (always welcome), feel free to leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation. I hope everyone out there is staying safe!

6500 Words On The G.O.A.T. Debate

By Owen Lewis

Perhaps the most-talked about aspect of tennis is the debate over which member of the Big Three will be crowned the greatest male tennis player of all time. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal are battling for eternal glory; their résumés are distinctly different and similar at the same time, and it’s been a question for a while now of whose claim is the best. I’m going to analyze their greatest accomplishments and compare them, as it stands on May 8th, 2020.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has won 19 majors, second among the legendary trio. An astounding 12 French Open titles belong to the Spaniard; he shattered the previous men’s record of six, held by Björn Borg, in 2012, and broke Margaret Court’s record of 11 titles at a single major in 2019. He has won at least two slams on each surface (2 on grass, 5 on hard court, and 12 on clay), owns 35 Masters 1000 titles (a men’s record), and is the only member of the Big Three to have won an Olympic gold medal in singles (he beat Djokovic in the semifinals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics).

He leads his head-to-head with Federer 24-16, and 10-4 in majors, and while he trails Djokovic 26-29 he has won 9 of their 15 meetings in slams. Combined, he emerged victorious in 19 of his 29 matches in majors against the other two, by far the best record of the trio.

Nadal has the best winning percentage in majors of the trio (and of every active male player).

Nadal has defended his French Open title nine times, more times than either Djokovic or Federer have won a single major.

From 2005 to 2014, Nadal went 18-5 in major meetings against Federer and Djokovic. He is the only member of the Big Three to have won three slams on three different surfaces in the same calendar year.

Nadal is the only male player ever to win hard court, grass court, and clay court majors in the same calendar year (in 2010, he won the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open back-to-back-to-back).

Nadal has won the Davis Cup (a team event in which players play for their country) a world record five times, while Federer and Djokovic have each won it a single time.

In his career, Nadal has lost just twice at the French Open, out of 14 complete appearances (he pulled out with injury in 2016). For reference, Federer has lost 13 times at Wimbledon, his most successful major, and Djokovic has fallen eight times at the Australian Open. Nadal won the French Open on his first attempt, and did not lose in Paris until his fifth tournament in 2009.

Nadal has beaten at least one of Federer or Djokovic on his way to winning 13 majors (out of 19 total).

Nadal’s biggest winning streak on clay stands at a mighty 81 matches.

From after Wimbledon in 2007 to before the 2017 Australian Open, Nadal won all six of his major matches with Federer (three at the Australian Open, one at Wimbledon, and two at the French Open). Despite grass being the surface on which he has had the least success, he dethroned Federer, who had won the tournament the last five years, in the final of Wimbledon in 2008.

Nadal has won majors in his teens, 20s, and 30s.

Nadal entered the top 10 as an eighteen-year-old in 2005, and has retained a spot in the top 10 ever since — 778 weeks (almost 15 years).

In 2013, Nadal won two Masters 1000 titles on clay, the French Open, two Masters 1000 titles on hard court, and the U.S. Open. Federer and Djokovic have never done this, and neither has anyone in the Open Era.

Nadal has a better appearance-to-final berth ratio in majors off of clay than Djokovic or Federer have on clay (Nadal makes 34.9% of nonclay slam finals, Djokovic makes the French Open final 26.7% of the time and Federer makes the French Open final 27.8% of the time), and a better appearance-to-final berth ratio at the French Open than Djokovic or Federer have at the other majors combined (80% for Nadal on clay, Djokovic makes 48.8% of nonclay major finals and Federer makes 44.1%)

Nadal has made multiple major finals in ten different seasons (2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019). Federer has made more than one major final in nine seasons (2004-2010, 2015, and 2017), while Djokovic has accomplished the feat eight times (2011-2016, 2018, and 2019).

Nadal is 29-13 when facing a top-5 player at a major (a 69.1% winning percentage). Djokovic is 31-20 (winning 60.8% of the time), and Federer is 29-26 (52.7% winning percentage).

Nadal has a 2-1 record against Djokovic at the U.S. Open, despite hard courts being Djokovic’s best surface.

Nadal has beaten both Federer and Djokovic at the same major three times (the French Open in 2006, 2007, and 2008). Djokovic has beaten Nadal and Federer at the same major once (the 2011 U.S. Open), and Federer has never topped the other two at the same slam.

He has won at least one major and one Masters 1000 title every year from 2005 to 2014, the longest streak owned by any Big Three member.

Nadal is 31-9 in matches against Djokovic and Federer on clay.

Nadal has achieved the rare “Channel Double”, the feat of winning the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, twice (in 2008 and 2010). Federer has done it once, in 2009, and Djokovic has never accomplished this.

Finally, Nadal won the 2009 Australian Open by playing a five-hour, 14-minute semifinal followed by a four-hour, 23-minute final, with one day’s rest in between (he beat Federer in the final).

Roger Federer

Federer has won 20 majors, more than Nadal, Djokovic, and every other man in history.

Federer is the oldest man to win a major and Masters 1000 in the Open Era.

Federer has won multiple majors without losing a set, including Wimbledon in 2017 when he was 35 years old.

At the French Open in 2011, Federer defeated Djokovic in a four-set semifinal. The Serb had been undefeated that year; Federer snapped his winning streak of over 40 matches.

At Hamburg in 2007, Federer beat Nadal 2-6, 6-2, 6-0, snapping the Spaniard’s 81-match winning streak on clay.

Federer is the oldest man to obtain the number one ranking in the Open Era (he was 36 when earning the mantle in early 2018)

He owns the all-time men’s record for weeks in the top spot of the rankings: 310. Nadal has 209, and Djokovic has 282. Federer has also held the number one ranking for the longest period before losing it: 237 weeks, more time than for which Nadal has been number one altogether.

Federer made 10 consecutive major finals from the 2005 Wimbledon to the 2007 U.S. Open, and another eight in a row from the 2008 French Open to the 2010 Australian Open.

He has made 36 consecutive major quarterfinals (nine years’ worth of majors).

Federer came from two sets down against Tommy Haas in the fourth round of the 2009 French Open, then beat Juan Martín del Potro from two sets to one down in the semifinals on his way to winning his only French Open title.

Federer has an Olympic silver medal in singles and a gold medal in doubles (partnered with Stan Wawrinka)

Federer has won 103 tournaments, comfortably more than Nadal’s 85 and Djokovic’s 79.

He has made 23 consecutive major semifinals.

Federer won five Wimbledon titles in a row from 2003-2007, and five U.S. Open titles from 2004-2008.

He is the only member of the Big Three to have at least five titles at three different majors (he has five U.S. Open titles, eight Wimbledon titles, and six Australian Open titles).

Federer has been in the top 2 at least once a year from 2003-2018 (age 21-36).

He is the only player in the trio to have successfully defended a U.S. Open title (he has done it four times. Djokovic and Nadal have never done it).

At Wimbledon and the Australian Open, Federer has at least 100 career wins. Neither Nadal or Djokovic have 100 wins at a slam.

Federer won 11 of the 16 majors contested from 2004 to 2007.

In 2009, Federer made all four slam finals, winning two and losing two (both in five sets, and both by 2-6 scores. He lost to Nadal at the Australian Open and lost to Juan Martin del Potro at the U.S. Open).

Federer has a men’s Open Era record of eight Wimbledon titles.

Federer has 103 career titles, more than Nadal (85) and Djokovic (79).

Federer defeated four top-10 players, including Nadal, to win the 2017 Australian Open.

Federer has won a men’s record of six ATP Finals, and missed out on the semifinals just once in 17 appearances.

He made seven consecutive Wimbledon finals from 2003-2009. No one else has been able to do this at any major since before 2000.

Novak Djokovic

He won four consecutive majors from Wimbledon in 2015 to the 2016 French Open. No man has accomplished this since Rod Laver.

Djokovic has completed the Career Grand Slam, winning each of the four majors.

He leads both rivalries with the other Big Three members: 26-22 against Federer and 29-26 against Nadal.

Since after the 2009 Mutua Madrid Open, Djokovic is 25-12 against Nadal and 23-15 against Federer, for a combined record of 48-27.

Djokovic has beaten Federer in majors 11 times, more than any other player (for reference: Nadal has 10 wins against Federer in slams).

Djokovic won 7 of the 10 Australian Open tournaments played from 2011-2020.

From 2014 to 2019, Djokovic won four of six Wimbledon tournaments.

Djokovic won 30 straight matches in majors from Wimbledon 2015 to Wimbledon 2016 (more than Federer, Nadal, and any man in the Open Era have ever accumulated)

Djokovic won 6 Masters 1000 titles in 2015, the only man to do so in the Open Era.

Djokovic recorded 31 wins over top-10 players in 2015, a season widely accepted as the best and most decorated by a man in the Open Era

Djokovic has saved match points against Federer on his way to winning the contest in majors three times (the 2010 and 2011 U.S. Open semifinals, and the 2019 Wimbledon final).

He has beaten a fellow Big Three member on the way to winning 13 of his 17 majors.

Djokovic has the highest Elo ranking, meaning he’s faced the toughest competition in his career.

Against the top 10, Djokovic has won 68% of his matches compared to Federer’s 64% and Nadal’s 65%.

Djokovic has made at least four finals at each major.

In 2011, Djokovic began the year with 43 consecutive wins.

Djokovic beat Nadal in all six of their meetings (each match was in the final of a tournament) in 2011, defeating the Spaniard to win Indian Wells, the Miami Open, the Madrid Open, Rome, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. His dominance of Nadal in 2011 spanned over all three surfaces.

Djokovic owns all nine masters 1000 titles; neither Federer nor Nadal have the full set.

Out of four meetings with Federer at the Swiss’s best major, Wimbledon, Djokovic has won three and lost one (the only non-final out of the four).

From 2012 to 2015, Djokovic won the ATP Finals four times in a row.

Djokovic is one of just two men to have beaten Nadal at the French Open, winning 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the 2015 quarterfinals.

Djokovic is the only man to have beaten both Federer and Nadal at all four majors.

Holes in the Résumés

While the careers of the Big Three have been, in a word, astounding, their résumés do have holes, miniscule as they may be. This section analyzes the weakest parts of each player’s career: tournaments they’ve never won, ranking dips, losing streaks against each other and other players, missed opportunities, weak competition faced at times, and more.

Roger Federer

Federer, across five French Open finals, has won once and lost four times (all losses to Nadal).

He has lost out on match point opportunities in majors five times in majors. Three losses were to Djokovic, with a combined six match points lost (four on serve and two against serve).

Federer at one point trailed Nadal 23-10 in their head-to-head rivalry.

He has beaten Nadal or Djokovic on the way to winning just seven of his 20 majors.

Federer has a losing record in finals on clay.

In majors against Nadal and Djokovic, his record stands at 10-21. Both of the others have won over half of their Big Three major encounters.

Federer has failed to convert an optimal percentage of break points in several important matches. Notable examples include his 2007 French Open final (a four-set loss to Nadal in which 1/17 break points were taken), the 2015 U.S. Open final (a four-set loss to Djokovic in which he converted 4/23 break points), and more recently his Round of 16 loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, where Federer produced 12 break points and was unable to break a single time.

Despite having won as many sets as Djokovic in their rivalry, Federer trails 23-27.

Federer, after winning the U.S. Open for a fifth straight time in 2008, has never won it since.

While Nadal and Djokovic are both undefeated in semifinals and finals at their best majors (Nadal is 12-0 at both stages in Paris; Djokovic is 8-0 at both stages in Melbourne), Federer has lost four times in Wimbledon finals (three to Djokovic, one to Nadal), and once in the semifinals.

Federer has never beaten Nadal at the French Open in six attempts.

Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a major since Wimbledon in 2012 (they have played six times in slams since then).

He has lost in majors twice from both two sets up and match point up (one of the losses was to Djokovic).

Federer has never beaten Nadal on the way to winning the French Open. He has played Nadal in four finals and two semifinals there.

Federer has never won Rome or Monte-Carlo, one of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments (he won Hamburg, a clay tournament that no longer exists, four times, and the former Madrid tournament on indoor hard once). Still, the gaps in his Masters 1000 collection indicate an overall lower level on clay than Djokovic (along with the Serb’s greater success against Nadal at the French Open).

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is 3-5 in U.S. Open finals, which is on hard court (his best surface).

He is 1-4 in French Open finals.

Unlike Federer and Nadal, Djokovic has never won a major without dropping a set.

Djokovic dropped to 22nd in the world in 2018 after injuries in 2017 and the beginning of 2018 as well as dips in form.

From the 2012 French Open to the 2014 French Open, Djokovic made six major finals and lost five of them (the sole win was at the 2013 Australian Open).

Djokovic does not have an Olympic gold medal in singles (2008: lost to Nadal in the semifinals).

He has lost six times to Nadal at the French Open, and failed to win the tournament the one year he did manage to beat the Spaniard.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has lost 19 sets in a row to Djokovic on hard court.

Nadal has never won the ATP Finals, the year-end 1500-point tournament that the year’s top eight players qualify for, despite qualifying every year since 2005.

In five appearances in the final of the Miami Open, Nadal is winless (in 2005, he fell to Federer after leading by two sets and a break when the format was best-of-five. He lost to Djokovic in 2011 and 2014 and to Federer in 2017).

He has never won the Rolex Paris Masters, another Masters 1000 tournament, or Shanghai, a third Masters 1000.

Nadal hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2009 and won his last Wimbledon title in 2010.

From 2012 to 2015, Nadal recorded four early-round losses at Wimbledon to players outside the top 100 (Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis, Nick Kyrgios, and Dustin Brown).

Nadal has lost six of his last seven matches against Federer.

Nadal has lost both of his matches against Djokovic at the Australian Open.

He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals (two losses to Djokovic and one to Federer), losing from a break up in the fifth set to Djokovic in 2012 and to Federer in 2017.

Miscellaneous Observations

Federer won four majors before playing Nadal in a major for the first time, and won nine before facing Djokovic at a slam. He led his rivalry with Djokovic early on, and now trails 27-23. Some believe that this is because Federer’s age has begun to play a factor, and this may be true, but any disadvantage that his age presents now is balanced by his privilege of playing for several years before meeting Nadal or Djokovic at a slam.

Federer is 20-11 in major finals (10 of the 11 losses are to Nadal or Djokovic), Nadal is 19-8 in major finals (seven of the eight losses are to Federer or Djokovic), and Djokovic is 17-9 in major finals (five of the nine losses are to Federer or Nadal).

Nadal and Djokovic are cut from the same cloth, while Federer’s game is extremely different from his rivals’. The Swiss’s style is aggressive, based around his serve and first strike. He comes to net more than the other two. Djokovic and Nadal are baseliners. They are probably the two hardest men to hit through, such is the strength of their defense. Their serves aren’t prolific in producing aces (Nadal’s is less so than Djokovic’s), and when it comes to long points, they will dominate. They are both exceptional under pressure, and have both beaten Federer in big matches by winning the most important points, if not the most points overall. It’s an interesting way to look at tennis history; Federer ruled with a brand of attacking tennis for a while, then was displaced by a pair of grinders with amazing groundstrokes and no obvious weaknesses to attack in their games (Federer’s would be his one-handed backhand) who seem not to feel pressure much of the time.

Nadal has the best rate of victory in slam finals (70.4%), Djokovic is second at 68% even, and Federer has the worst winning percentage in major finals (64.5%).

Against Andy Murray, the fourth-best player of the generation, Djokovic is 25-11, Nadal is 17-7, and Federer is 14-11.

Djokovic has played, and won, many important matches with the crowd almost fully against him. Some notable examples are the 2019 Wimbledon final and the 2015 U.S. Open final.

The Case for Djokovic (based on his career so far)

Djokovic has won 15 slams in the last decade, more than any other man. He came to power when Federer and Nadal were dominating tennis, and rebounded from huge deficits in each rivalry. He’s beaten Federer at Wimbledon three times, all in finals, and out-grinded Nadal in a five-hour, 53-minute slugfest at the Australian Open, showing he can match and exceed his biggest rivals in brutal matches. He’s only lost one five-setter to Nadal, and none to Federer, while beating them in a combined six. In the clutch, he’s gotten the better of Federer time and again; he’s saved match points against one of the best ever in the biggest matches multiple times.

His return is the best in history, as is his backhand, and his game is the most well-balanced of the three, reflected by his Golden Masters accomplishment. At all four majors, he’s gotten the best of Federer and Nadal. He’s arguably the best hard court player of all time and if he wins a couple more Wimbledon titles, has a solid claim to being the best-ever grass courter as well. And he’s not too shabby on clay; he’s one of just two men to beat Nadal at the French Open and has beaten Nadal on the dirt seven times, more than anyone else. Djokovic has almost as many weeks at #1 as Federer and looks to be in a good position to catch him once the tour resumes. Finally, he won four majors in a row from the 2015 Wimbledon to the 2016 French Open, which hasn’t been done since Rod Laver won the calendar slam in 1969. Since 2011, he’s simply been better than both Federer and Nadal in most of their meetings.

The Case Against Djokovic

He doesn’t lead any of the most important stats — majors, weeks at #1, Masters 1000 titles, or overall tournaments. He trails Nadal and Federer in majors, and lacks an Olympic gold medal. He’s lost nine of his fifteen matches in majors against Nadal. He’s lost five major finals to Wawrinka or Murray, and has a poor conversion rate in U.S. Open finals (3-5), a tournament on his best surface. Federer has as many majors on hard court/clay and three more on grass, while Nadal is stronger at the French Open than he is at the Australian.

The Case for Federer (based on his career so far)

Federer has 20 majors, 310 weeks in the top spot of the rankings, and has won 103 tournaments. All three of these stats are records among the Big Three, and the major tally and weeks at number one are all-time men’s records. He’s the most decorated men’s player in history, and therefore the best. At his peak, he was better than Djokovic in their rivalry. He transcended age to win the Australian Open in 2017, beating four top-10 players including the man who’s inflicted heartbreak upon heartbreak on him, Nadal. He’s beaten Djokovic at all four majors. He dominated the tour for a solid four and a half years, beating old legends like Andre Agassi as well as the young stars of his generation. Even after his most successful years, he was able to beat Djokovic at the French Open in 2011 and at Wimbledon in 2012. Murray’s only beaten him once in a major.

His serve is one of the best among the non-giants of the tour; he gives away nothing about the location. It’s precise and packs a decent punch. Some consider his forehand to be the best ever, and even the best shot ever, and while that’s debatable, it’s an incredibly powerful and reliable shot at its best. His volleys are smooth and his overhead backhand draws gasps whenever he hits it.

He’s won five or more titles at Wimbledon, the Australian Open, and the U.S. Open, as well as a title in Paris and four runner-up plates. His name is at the top of most of the leaderboards.

The Case Against Federer

For much of his career, he hasn’t been as good as his two main rivals. He’s won less than a third of his most important matches against them (10/31), and they’ve both beaten him at Wimbledon, his best slam. Meanwhile, he’s beaten Djokovic at the Australian Open, but that was before the Serb won his first title there, and he’s not been close to defeating Nadal in Paris. While Nadal and Djokovic won 13 and 15 majors, respectively, in the 2010s, Federer won just five, despite beginning the decade as the world No. 1.

He’s the worst under pressure out of the three, as reflected in the 2007 French Open final (1/17 on break points against Nadal) and the 2015 U.S. Open (4/23 on break points against Djokovic). In the 2006 Rome final, his best chance at beating Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay (which he’s never done), he made two unforced errors on his only two match points. He’s missed out on six match points in majors against Djokovic, two of which were championship points at Wimbledon. Nadal and Djokovic are better at taking their chances.

Federer has played for years longer than Nadal and Djokovic, and still trails them in Masters 1000 titles by a considerable distance (he has 28, Djokovic has 34, and Nadal has a men’s record of 35. He’s never won Monte-Carlo or Rome, leaving a significant gap in his clay-court accomplishments.

His success at majors came to a grinding halt as Nadal and Djokovic reached their primes, suggesting that the other two are better players. He won many of his majors without having to contend with either of them, instead feasting on Lleyton Hewitt, a post-prime Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick, and Mark Philippoussis. Nadal and Djokovic had to battle each other, Federer, and the stronger players of the more recent generation to win their majors (such as Murray and Wawrinka), so their slams carry more historical weight. Federer was the third-best player of the highest-level era in modern men’s tennis.

The Case for Nadal (based on his career so far)

Nadal’s the greatest clay court player ever; that’s essentially impossible to contradict. Beating Nadal on clay is the toughest task in men’s tennis, because Nadal at his best on clay is the highest level in men’s tennis.

He beat Federer at Wimbledon in 2008, when the Swiss was still in his prime (and, by his own admission, recovered from the bout of mono he suffered that year). He’s beaten Djokovic at the U.S. Open twice, and won more Flushing Meadows titles than the man many consider to be the greatest hard court player ever. His non-clay accomplishments alone rival the careers of John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors. Is Nadal an all-court player? You bet.

In majors, he is 19-10 against Federer and Djokovic; he’s won a convincing majority of his most important matches with his biggest rivals. And while 12 of his wins come at the French Open, he is 4-4 against Federer at non-clay majors and 3-5 against Djokovic at non-clay majors, by far a better winning percentage than his opponents’ records against him at the French Open (Federer is 0-6, Djokovic is 1-6). He is more dominant on clay than Federer or Djokovic are on grass and hard, respectively, and he’s more accomplished on grass and hard than his rivals are on clay.

Nadal comfortably leads his head-to-head with Federer, even with the Swiss’s revamped backhand helping him win six of the last seven matches. He’s beaten Federer in three of their four hard court major matches, and didn’t lose to him at a hard court major until the 2017 Australian Open final. He might be leading his head-to-head with Djokovic as well had the pair not faced off seven times during Nadal’s biggest dip in form (2015-2016) — for reference, there were only two Djokovic-Nadal matches from 2017-June 2018, Djokovic’s worst period.

Nadal is the only one of the three to have an Olympic gold medal in singles, and he has five Davis Cup titles compared to one each for Djokovic and Federer.

The Case against Nadal

Nadal has never won the year-end ATP Finals tournament, which counts for 1500 points. Djokovic and Federer have each won it five times. He trails Djokovic 20-7 on hard courts and has lost 19 sets in a row to the Serb on cement.

Nadal has by far the fewest weeks at number one out of the three.

Out of the trio, he’s the third-best player on hard courts and grass. He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals, and has never won the Paris Masters or the Miami Open, two of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments. He also hasn’t won the Shanghai Masters (though he won indoor Madrid, the tournament that Shanghai replaced). Djokovic leads their head-to-head 29-26, and as of late Nadal has had difficulty beating both his main rivals. He hasn’t gotten the best of Federer on hard court since the 2014 Australian Open, and not since the 2013 U.S. Open has he tasted victory over Djokovic on cement, and his last grass court wins over Federer and Djokovic came in 2008.

A Note on Why the Clay Specialist Argument Makes No Sense

The “Nadal is just a clay court specialist” argument falls apart as Nadal’s success on other surfaces, including both his rivals in their primes, is revealed. He has won as many majors on grass as Federer and Djokovic have won on clay, combined. He is the only player among the Big Three to have won at least two majors on each surface, and is more surface-balanced than Djokovic and Federer in that respect.

Sergi Bruguera, who won the French Open in 1993 and 1994 and no majors off the Paris dirt, is arguably a clay specialist. Nadal is not; he has won seven majors off of clay alone.

Some say “if you take away everyone’s most successful slam, Nadal has the fewest majors”, but all that proves is that Nadal is better at the French Open than Federer at Wimbledon and Djokovic at the Australian Open. In no way should this count against Nadal in the G.O.A.T. debate.

Djokovic has won 11 of his 17 majors on hard court (64.7%), a greater majority than Nadal’s 12 clay court majors against his 19 total (63.2%). This can be defended by saying there are two hard court majors each year and a singular slam on clay, but this opens up the argument that “if there were a second major on clay, Nadal could very well have another 12 majors”. The point is that wins on hard are not more valuable or important than wins on clay. The “specialist” argument can be used against any player who’s inevitably won a majority of their majors on a single surface. Each surface counts the same, and it is pointless to raise the “if you were to take away a surface…” narrative.

So if it seems that this article is missing a section that uses the “clay specialist” argument against Nadal, this is why I did not include it. Some arguments do not have merit and as such, I have not written about them here.

A Brief Segment on Popularity

Federer and Nadal are simply more popular than Djokovic. They get more crowd support than the Serb, and have more fans worldwide. I suspect that this is because they started winning first, so the world grew a bit accustomed to seeing them dominate before Djokovic began to ascend to their status, beating them both many times along the way. His lack of popularity compared to the others may also have to do with his on-court demeanor. He smashes rackets on occasion, while Nadal has never done so and Federer hasn’t since 2009 (he was losing to Djokovic at the time). I don’t place any emphasis on popularity when it comes to the G.O.A.T. debate, and I don’t think it makes Djokovic any less of a great player.

What Conclusions Can Be Drawn?

In this section, I’m going to do my best to provide some predictions and concrete statements about the strength of the careers of the Big Three. When I read an article about the G.O.A.T. debate, I always want to see an opinion at the end saying something more than “their claims are equally good”. I do think it’s far too early to definitively say who the greatest of all time is, but I will give some opinions that will hopefully satisfy some curiosity.

Although Federer leads in majors, overall tournaments, and weeks at #1, I think that the battle for the G.O.A.T. title will come down to Nadal and Djokovic. Federer, bluntly put, is not as reliable in big moments of matches, against his rivals and against other players. He trails in both rivalries, and has lost over two-thirds of his matches in majors when playing Nadal and Djokovic. Because of this, I think that if they can equal his 20 majors, their superior big-match playing, Masters 1000 tally, and their more complete domination of their most successful major will overpower Federer’s claim.

It’s a very tough call between Nadal and Djokovic for who I think will eventually be considered the best men’s tennis player ever. The former will likely win additional Roland-Garros titles, the latter will probably win more Australian Open titles. Nadal leads in majors, Masters 1000s, the head-to-head in majors, and overall tournaments won (as well as having an Olympic gold medal), so I believe that as it stands today, his résumé is slightly better than Djokovic and his four consecutive majors won, overall head-to-head lead, amazing streak on hard courts, and status as the best player of the 2010s decade. But Nadal is farther past his prime than Djokovic is, and the Serb has won five of the last seven majors. There’s every chance that Djokovic will exceed Nadal’s major and Masters 1000 tally.

If he does so, his lead in the head-to-head and his other accomplishments could well lift him to the status of G.O.A.T.

One of the most difficult things about this debate is measuring the accomplishments of each player. As I said above, I think Federer’s résumé will be the weakest if his major tally is tied or exceeded, but this is subjective. Others may consider weeks at number one to be the most important stat, or perhaps overall tournaments won.

By the same token, it’s very hard to determine how much of a lead one player will need on another to be considered better. In the case of Federer, I think once his 20 majors are equaled, his claim is worse than that of the player who matched him (Nadal or Djokovic).

Nadal and Djokovic are, if possible, an even trickier case. When does Djokovic’s big lead in weeks at #1 come into play? Is it worth one major, two majors? Less than one? What about Nadal’s Olympic gold medal? Another reason this debate is so tough to project is that there’s the possibility that Djokovic could win gold in the future, or that Federer could win more majors, pushing his total out of reach (I do think the former possibility is more likely).

Here’s the most definitive statement I can make regarding Nadal and Djokovic: I think that if Djokovic can surpass Nadal’s haul of majors, his career will be slightly more impressive as a whole. And vice-versa, if Nadal ends with more majors I believe his career will be the best ever by a man. Their non-major stats and achievements (Masters 1000s, head-to-head leads, surface domination, etc.) are extremely close in weight. My opinion is that if they tie or exceed Federer’s 20 majors, they deserve to be considered better players.

Of course, this hypothetical as well as the one at the start of this section is next to useless, as it assumes that the only thing that will change between now and the end of the careers of the Big Three is the major tally.

But I’m trying to analyze their careers right now, and here’s what I think: majors are the most important part of the debate. This is what’s keeping Federer in the conversation. But since Nadal and Djokovic’s claims are likely as good at the moment, it won’t be much of a contest if either or both of them reach 20 majors. Djokovic and Nadal’s more impressive competition faced, domination of a single major, etc. put them on virtually equal footing with Federer, so with regards to the race for G.O.A.T., Federer has a mountain to climb.

He needs to hold on to his lead in majors to maintain a claim to be the G.O.A.T., and Nadal is one away from tying him. Djokovic is three behind, but has been the most dominant player of the past decade and has won large groups of majors in very short periods of time, as he did when completing his “Nole Slam” and when regaining supremacy in men’s tennis at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019.

I think Federer will eventually be considered the third-best player of the trio when these three great players have all retired. I believe that he has a viable claim to G.O.A.T. as it stands today, but he won’t in the future if his 20 majors are matched.

On the other hand, I think that Nadal and Djokovic will always have a strong claim, barring a large deficit in majors upon the end of their careers. For example, if the gap between them is two or less, the player with fewer majors will still have a claim, though it will be weaker.

As for a prediction between Nadal and Djokovic for who will end up as the G.O.A.T., I’m afraid I’ll have to leave it open-ended. Djokovic looks the more likely to win majors currently, but Nadal is always a (the) favorite at the French Open and has won two of the last three U.S. Open tournaments as well. And the younger players on the circuit, the NextGen, are improving constantly and may prevent the older stars from adding much more to their résumés, in which case Federer could hold on to his record of 20 majors.

There’s no doubt that this G.O.A.T. debate is among the most interesting and complex conversations ever to grace the tennis community. Fans of all three players display impressive passion, and each group has suffered heartbreak as their favorite player has fallen to one of the other two or another ATP player. Tennis is mentally taxing, not just as a player, but as a fan, and the G.O.A.T. debate can be immensely frustrating if an argument isn’t going the way one wants, or if there’s a particularly fierce disagreement. The thought of one’s favorite player not going down as the G.O.A.T. is almost too much to bear.

But even if your man doesn’t win this incredible race, it doesn’t lessen the remarkable career they’ve had. If you are positive that your favorite won’t come out on top, there’s no need to be devastated. They’re still an all-time legend. Their best moments are immortalized in your memory and on YouTube.

Go back in time. Go back, and watch Nadal overcome the limits of physical exhaustion by winning a titanic Australian Open semifinal against Verdasco (one of the best hard court matches ever), then somehow recover for the anticipated final with Federer. Watch Djokovic edge Andy Murray in the Australian Open semifinal three years later, then outlast Nadal in a mind-bending five-hour, 53-minute final that left both players struggling not to cramp during the trophy ceremony. Relive Federer’s improbable victory at the Australian Open in 2017 where he beat four top-10 players, getting the best of Nadal in the final in perhaps his most emotional victory ever.

Watch Nadal beat Federer in what’s widely considered the best match of all time at Wimbledon in 2008. Check out Djokovic beating Nadal in a 2018 semifinal at the same tournament that’s possibly the best quality match since. See the Serb’s emotion as he wins the French Open for the first time here (his fourth major in a row!). Watch Federer feel the same joy here.

Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer have given tennis fans hours upon hours of breathtaking tennis. They’ve delivered shots that made our mouths fall open, and worked their way into such pressured positions that we felt like throwing up.

They haven’t just attracted fans with their dazzling tennis, but with their personalities and unique qualities. The elegance, awe-inspiring shot selection at times, and seeming effortlessness of Federer has helped earn him an enormous fan base, while many others are captivated by Djokovic and Nadal’s incredible endurance and more expressive on-court personalities. All three have brought myriad fans to the tennis community.

Despite the undeniable talent of the NextGen, it’s not close to what the Big Three have brought to tennis (at least not yet). The quality of what we’ve watched from these players and their rivalries with each other may never be seen again in men’s tennis. Nadal and Federer’s forehands as well as Djokovic’s backhand might not just be the best ever, but the best there will ever be.

So let’s enjoy them while they’re here. They’re still among the best in the world, but there’s no mistaking that their best days are behind them. Soon enough, they’ll take their leave from professional tennis and we’ll be left wondering how the golden days of the men’s game went by so quickly.

But it’s not over yet. When the tour starts up again, Djokovic will still be number one. Nadal will be number two. Federer, recovering from knee surgery, will be in the bottom half of the top ten, but eager to climb the ladder. All three will be fighting to contend for major titles. This story may be in its closing stages, but it’s not over yet.

Martina Navratilova said it best at the end of the Strokes of Genius documentary on the 2008 Wimbledon final:

“We’re so lucky.”

Thanks to everyone who had a hand in putting this article together. There are too many to name here, but dozens of people contributed stats on Twitter, and the help is hugely appreciated. As always, feedback is welcome; feel free to leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!

Zverev Crushes Federer Comeback in Shanghai Quarterfinals, Records His Best Win of 2019

By Owen Lewis

It hasn’t been the best year for Alexander Zverev. He lost in the fourth round of the Australian Open to Milos Raonic, putting up shockingly little resistance: 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 (5). At the French Open, Zverev made the quarterfinals, but ran into world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. After failing to serve out the first set, Zverev won four games for the rest of the match as Djokovic sailed to victory. On the lawns at Wimbledon, he lost in the first round to Jiri Vesely, a qualifier, in four sets. And at the U.S. Open, Zverev, after playing attritional four and five set matches in the early rounds, lost in four to Diego Schwartzman in the fourth round.

That’s not a great year of results for the 22-year-old German, particularly not after winning the ATP finals in 2018 (he beat Federer and Djokovic back-to-back in the semifinals and finals). And his poor matches are at times baffling- at his best, Zverev has a huge serve, a solid forehand, a world-class backhand, and the ability to rally with the best players on the tour. But too often this year his serve has failed him, and he’s hit numerous double faults each match- sometimes 15 to 20.

This started to change during the Laver Cup. Zverev sealed the team-style tournament for Team Europe with a forehand passing shot against his nemesis from Down Under, Raonic. Since then, he’s been playing good tennis- in the recent Beijing tournament, he endured a tough loss against Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he looks to be well on the way to his best form now- if not already there.

Zverev begun his Shanghai Masters with wins over Jeremy Chardy and Andrey Rublev, then faced a quarterfinal clash with 20-time major champion Roger Federer. Zverev started strong, breaking Federer’s serve in the sixth game. At 30-all, the German hit a dart of a forehand return right into the corner, then quickly converted his opportunity when Federer’s forehand misfired. Zverev continued serving well, and hit some great passing shots, ripping some forehands and backhands past Federer at the net. The rest of the set went with serve and Zverev took it 6-3.

The second set was enormously dramatic. Federer held to open the set and then broke Zverev’s serve for the first time, controlling the court throughout a long rally and then winning the point with a drop shot. Zverev broke straight back, though, crashing a huge crosscourt backhand passing shot past Federer and then running down a drop volley and flicking it down the line for a winner. Some comfortable holds were exchanged following the breaks until Federer served at 5-all. Zverev clawed his way to a break point at 30-40, and after a long rally whipped a forehand pass down the line.

It appeared that Zverev was going to cruise to victory when he went up 40-love, but Federer somehow kept himself alive- the Swiss great hit a couple gorgeous volleys to save three match points and reach deuce. Zverev then pushed a backhand volley beyond the baseline, and Federer took the break point with some absurd shotmaking: he hit a perfectly placed, impeccably timed, backhand half-volley that Zverev had no hope of reaching. During the tiebreak, Federer saved two more match points and took it with an ace: 9-7.

After such a momentum shift, it seemed that Federer might romp through the third set, but Zverev was able to keep the missed chances from haunting him. He broke Federer at the first opportunity in the deciding set, then held for 3-0. His opponent showed his frustration by swatting a ball away and suffered the punishment in the form of a point penalty. Federer saved two break points when serving at 0-3, and another at 1-4, but couldn’t make a mark on Zverev’s serve, who hit 17 aces and just one double fault. The German served out the match to 15, and triumphantly declared that his time had come (possibly with an expletive thrown in).

Maybe Zverev’s time has come. He now has a 4-3 record against Federer, and owns two wins over Novak Djokovic, the world No. 1. While I’m on that topic, Zverev’s fellow “NextGener” and rival Tsitsipas took out Djokovic today, also in three sets: 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. The much-talked-about changing of the guard in men’s tennis seems to have been knocking on the door for ages, but the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal) are experts at ignoring the knocks and have been dominating tennis since 2004. But Zverev and Tsitsipas will only get better, and have 21 and 22-year-old legs to boot.

The one task that the young stars in the men’s game have been unable to achieve is breaking through at the Grand Slam level in best-three-out-of-five matches. This year, Djokovic and Nadal (32 and 33 years old, respectively) each won two slams. Tsitsipas managed to topple Federer in the 4th round Down Under, but was humbled by Nadal two rounds later: 6-2, 6-4, 6-0. Dominic Thiem (though he is 26, hardly a young star) won a brutal five setter against Djokovic at the French Open semifinals, but Nadal crushed his hopes in the final: 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1.

Even so, wins like today’s will only boost the younger players’ confidence. The 2020 Australian Open is in three months, and Zverev, Tsitsipas, and others will be eager to star growing legacies of their own. After today, Alexander “Sascha” Zverev is on the right track.

Wimbledon 2019: Week One Assessments

By Owen Lewis

It’s the break between weeks 1 and 2 of Wimbledon, with “Manic Monday” coming up tomorrow. The second week is sure to bring more action to what has already been an incredibly compelling tournament. Andy Murray and Serena Williams teamed up in a dream mixed doubles partnership, 15-year-old Coco Gauff made a fairytale run to the fourth round, and Rafael Nadal produced an extremely entertaining win over the enigmatic Nick Kyrgios. Let’s look at the top players’ performances so far, as well as some of the best stories and a few of my predictions.

The Big Three

The trio of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have dominated men’s tennis for what seems an age, starting with Federer’s ascent in 2003. Each of the last 10 major tournaments has been won by one of these giants, and it would be a big surprise if things went differently this week.

-Federer dropped the first set of his opening-round match to Lloyd Harris, but only lost five games for the rest of the contest. He then earned straight-set wins over Jay Clarke and Lucas Pouille in the second and third rounds, respectively. Still, he’s averaging just over eight aces a match (a bit low for him), and hasn’t really played at his imperious best yet. With an upcoming fourth-rounder against Matteo Berrettini, who has made waves on grass this year with an 11-1 record, Federer will likely have to step up his game to continue his smooth progress. Grade: B+

-Nadal, coming off a 12th French Open victory in Paris last month, has been impressive in his first few matches. Grass is the world No. 2’s least favorite surface, but he broke a string of less-than-impressive results at Wimbledon by making the semifinal last year, and looks to build on that result in 2019. His pre-tournament draw, however, was intimidating (it’s slackened considerably thanks to several upsets). After cruising in his opening match, Nadal clashed with Nick Kyrgios, the talented but self-destructive Aussie, in a second round blockbuster. Kyrgios lacks consistently strong results, but has wins over each member of the Big Three, including a four-set win over Nadal at the 2014 Wimbledon. The first two sets were split, and the next two went to tiebreaks. Though Nadal had never beaten Kyrgios in a tiebreak, he impressively took both “breakers”, grinding out a tough four-set win: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3).

In the third round, Nadal crushed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Wimbledon semifinalist, for the loss of only seven games. He lost just 10 points on serve through the whole match and never faced a break point in the process. He’s averaged 11 aces a match, which is an unusually high tally for the Spanish lefty. At one point when Nadal was ranked No. 1 during the 2018 season, he averaged fewer aces per match than 98 out of the top 100 players. Nadal isn’t known for his serve, but seems to have adjusted well to the clay-grass surface change- at Wimbledon, he often flattens out his serve, increasing the pace.

Nadal has a seemingly straightforward fourth-rounder against Joao Sousa of Portugal, and won’t face a seeded player until the semifinals, where he could play Roger Federer. With the grass playing slower this year, Nadal will feel more comfortable- if he can stay efficient during the next couple rounds, he will be deadly at the business end of the tournament. Grade: A

-Djokovic was, unquestionably, the pre-tournament favorite. He’s the current world No. 1 and the winner of three out of the last four slams. Few have lowered his status as the favorite- upsets of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have made his draw significantly easier. With Federer and Nadal on the other side of the draw, he has the least difficult path to the final.

Djokovic won a potentially tricky opening-rounder against Philipp Kohlschreiber, then rolled American Denis Kudla in round two. His next match was significantly more tricky, though. Djokovic had to battle in order to advance, coming through a tough four-setter against Herbert Hurkacz. After a close first set, Hurkacz hit some incredible shots on his way to winning the second-set tiebreak. His level dipped after the set, and Djokovic lost just five games during the last two sets. Still, he didn’t play as well as in either of his first two matches, missing first serves at crucial moments and hitting more double faults than he did in his first two matches combined.

Despite a slight dip in form during his third-rounder, Djokovic is still the favorite with most. It will be a huge surprise if he doesn’t make the final at the least. Grade: A-

The NextGen

Although the Big Three are an extremely rare talent, the young’uns of tennis have struggled to dethrone the 30+ year-olds. The only one to have made the final of a major so far is Dominic Thiem, who lost in the first round at Wimbledon this year. Many believe that their poor results are because their generation is a weak one, while others state that the Big Three are just that good. Either way, the young stars again failed to impress at Wimbledon.

-Stefanos Tsitsipas made the semifinals at the Australian Open, beating Federer along the way. At the French Open, he made the fourth round before losing an absolute nail-biter to Stan Wawrinka. But at Wimbledon, the 7th seed lost in the first round to unseeded Thomas Fabbiano. At least he saved a couple match points in the fourst set before falling 6-3 in the fifth. Grade: D

-Alexander Zverev has had success at every level except the majors, and has suffered a vicious dip in form after his ATP Finals victory at the end of 2018. He went 1/7 in break points during his first-rounder against the unseeded Jiri Vesely, losing in four sets. Grade: F

-Dominic Thiem had beaten Djokovic in the semis of the French Open in an impressive five-setter before losing to Nadal in the final. At Wimbledon, however, he lost in four sets to the…you guessed it…unseeded Sam Querrey. He lost the fourth set 6-0, winning just five points along the way. Grade: F-

-Felix Auger-Aliassime, an 18-year-old from Canada, was the fifth favorite with some odds-makers despite never having won a grand slam match. Still, many expected him to make a splash at Wimbledon, backing up his encouraging results on the grass courts of Queen’s Club and Stuttgart. The Canadian was slated to play Djokovic in the fourth round, but after two four-set wins, he put up disappointingly little resistance against Ugo Humbert in the third round. After losing the first set, FAA wasted a 5-2 lead in the second set, then folded almost immediately in the third. Grade: C

-Nick Kyrgios, though he didn’t make it past the second round, did play well against Nadal. Still, his shockingly blunt responses in press alienated any fans he may have earned during his time at Wimbledon. Grade: D

Coco Gauff

-Coco Gauff has been the story of the tournament so far. At fifteen years old, she beat her idol Venus Williams in the first round, then won her next match in straight sets. In the third round against Polona Hercog, Gauff was down a set and 5-2, serving at match point down. She played a nerveless point, hitting a backhand slice winner that landed plum on the sideline. Gauff broke Hercog in the next game, saving another match point along the way, and went on to seal a remarkable victory 3-6, 7-6 (7), 7-5.

Gauff’s next opponent is Simona Halep, last year’s French Open champion and former world No. 1 (it’s not on Center Court for some reason). She is by no means the favorite, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she won, either. With the women’s game as competitive as it is, Gauff has a great opportunity to extend her remarkable run even further. The world will be watching. Grade: A+

Others

-Serena Williams, now 37 years old, hasn’t won a slam in two and a half years. She lost weakly in the third round of the French Open, and hasn’t played a warmup event prior to Wimbledon. And yet some still pick her to win. Serena is unquestionably the GOAT on the women’s side, and still has the game to be at the top. She had a scare in her second-round match, winning 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, but she has a very winnable fourth-rounder against Carla Suarez Navarro. If Serena can avoid a mid-tournament hiccup and maintain her focus, she’ll be a nightmare for anyone to play. Side note: she’s playing mixed with Andy Murray, which may or may not take a toll on her singles level. Grade: B

-Ash Barty is in red-hot form right now. Recently crowned world No. 1, French Open champion, few would be surprised to see her lift the trophy in London. So far, she’s been terrorizing her opponents, not coming close to dropping a set. In my opinion, Barty is definitely the one to beat, and the favorite to take the women’s title. Grade: A

-Kei Nishikori has made the second week of a slam once again, and has yet to drop a set. But he has so many factors working against him. He’s not as durable as many other players, and a common theme is him being pushed too hard by a player he should beat easily, then getting emasculated by Nadal or Djokovic (or retiring injured). He has a winnable fourth-round match against Mikhail Kukushkin, but will likely play Federer after that. To top it off, grass is his worst surface, and he lacks the big serve/forehand to win points efficiently. I think his chances of winning are as low as anyone’s at this point. Even so, he should be fresh so far, due in part to his fairly easy draw of unseeded players- don’t be surprised if he makes the quarterfinals, but I’m reasonably confident that’s as far as he’ll go. Grade: A (based on play so far)

SerAndy

Andy Murray is back! No, not in singles, but he’s on court and that’s a great start. Murray entered in both the men’s doubles and mixed doubles for Wimbledon, teaming with Pierre-Hughes Herbert and Serena Williams, respectively. Murray and Herbert lost in the second round of the men’s doubles, but he and Serena won their first round in mixed. Regardless of the outcome, it’s amazing to see such great players partnered up. Best of luck to them for the rest of the tournament.

Predictions

-For the men, it’s just too hard to see Djokovic losing at the moment, though Nadal is my solid second favorite. Nadal will beat Federer in a four-set semifinal, and in the final Djokovic wins 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

-Barty is playing so well at the moment. I back her to ride the momentum to her first slam title. Dark horses: Gauff, Serena, and Elina Svitolina.

-For the mixed doubles, I’ll go with Murray and Serena. Why not? What a story it would be.

The Gaping Hole in the Rivalry: Why Have Federer and Nadal Never Met at the U.S. Open?

By Owen Lewis

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal make up arguably the most influential and popular rivalry in tennis. They have faced off four times at the Australian Open, six times at the French Open, and three times at Wimbledon. But in the 15 years since they first played each other, the pair have never clashed at Flushing Meadows. Let’s take a look at the near misses.

2008: Federer was the four-time defending champion going into the 2008 U.S. Open, while Nadal had yet to progress past the quarterfinals. Federer beat a 21-year-old Novak Djokovic in a four set semifinal, but Nadal lost to Andy Murray in the other semi: 6-2, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4. Federer went on to win the tournament with an emphatic straight-sets win over Murray.

2009: Federer and Nadal both made the semifinals, as the top two seeds. Federer beat Djokovic 7-6 (3), 7-5, 7-5, hitting his famous crosscourt “tweener” in the last game. Nadal was topped handily by Juan Martín del Potro, though, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. Del Potro then shocked Federer in a five-set final, becoming the first man to beat both Federer and Nadal in a Grand Slam.

2010: This time, the dream matchup was prevented by just one point. Nadal, the No. 1 seed, stormed to the final without dropping a set. His opponent was determined by a Djokovic-Federer semifinal, and it was a five-set thriller. With Djokovic serving to stay in the match at 4-5 in the fifth set, Federer produced two match points, but Djokovic erased both with forehand winners. Federer dropped his serve at 5-5, then missed a break point with Djokovic serving for the match at 6-5. Nadal went on to complete his career grand slam with a four-set victory over Djokovic: 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

2011: Once again, a Federer-Nadal final was barred by one point. In a near-mirror image of the 2010 tournament, Nadal made the final on his side of the bracket, with Djokovic and Federer contesting for the other spot. Djokovic forced a fifth set after being down two sets, and with Federer serving for the match at 5-3, 40-15, hit a crosscourt return winner. At 40-30, Federer missed a makeable forehand, and Djokovic reeled off four straight games to take the fifth set 7-5. In the final, Nadal fought valiantly, but Djokovic produced a masterclass, winning 6-2, 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-1 in a match that lasted for over four hours.

2013: With Federer seeded 7th, his lowest ranking in years, he was slated to play 2nd-ranked Nadal in the quarterfinals. Federer played Spaniard Tommy Robredo in the fourth round, with the winner earning a clash with Nadal. Federer had won all of the ten matches he and Robredo had played, but the Spaniard shockingly won in straight sets: 7-6 (3), 6-3, 6-4. Nadal crushed Robredo in the quarters, and went on to beat Djokovic in a four-set final to claim his second U.S. Open.

2017: Nadal and Federer were slated to meet in the semifinals, as the 1st and 3rd seeds respectively. Federer was shaky in his opening rounds, needing five sets to dispatch his first and second round opponents. Still, he made the quarterfinals. His opponent? His old nemesis from the 2009 U.S. Open, Juan Martín del Potro. The first two sets were shared, and in a fierce third set tiebreak Federer missed four set points, eventually losing the breaker 10-8. Del Potro then grabbed the fourth set 6-4 to earn a semifinal berth against Nadal. The top seed beat del Potro in four sets and earned the title with a flawless performance against Kevin Anderson in the final.

-So, there has yet to be a Federer-Nadal matchup at the U.S. Open. They are both in their 30s, so time is definitely running out for such a clash. Still, Nadal is currently No. 2, and Federer No. 3. As of now, neither player is going anywhere.

Questions? Email me at owenlewis11801@gmail.com or tweet me @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!

Ranking Rafael Nadal’s 19 Grand Slam Titles

By Owen Lewis

Note: I wrote this article after Nadal won Roland-Garros for a twelfth time in May 2019, and have updated it to include his U.S. Open victory as well.
With his 12th win at Roland-Garros, Nadal now has 18 Grand Slam titles. Let’s take a look at which ones were the most meaningful and/or important to the Spaniard’s legacy. I tried to find an article on this topic, but couldn’t find one and decided to give my take on it. I hope any and all readers enjoy this article and you can email me with questions: owenlewis11801@gmail.com

19. 2008 Roland-Garros

Nadal stormed through the draw at the 2008 French Open, with a huge number of 6-1 and 6-0 sets, culminating with a straight-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals and a 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 demolishing of Roger Federer in the final. This was the Spaniard’s fourth straight title at Roland-Garros, extending his success on clay. The victory likely gave Nadal a confidence boost heading into the 2008 Wimbledon, a win that is much higher on the list, but the sheer lopsidedness of Nadal’s wins in the 2008 French Open earn it the lowest spot on this list.

18. 2007 Roland-Garros

Nadal beat Djokovic and Federer on his way to his third French Open title, only dropping one set in the final to Federer. This win wasn’t particularly surprising, though- Nadal had consolidated his dominance on clay the two previous years, and was the favorite to win the French Open for the third year in a row.

17. 2018 Roland-Garros

Back at the top of the rankings, the Spaniard dropped just one set to Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals, topping Dominic Thiem in the final in straight sets. This was just one of two French Open victories where Nadal did not fall back onto his back after the final point (with the other being 2008, another straight-sets final), and his 11th French Open title overall.

16. 2011 Roland-Garros

Shockingly, American John Isner pushed Nadal to five sets in the opening round, winning a pair of tiebreaks to open up a two sets to one lead. The match was the first time Nadal had even played a fifth set at Roland-Garros (which he won 6-4). He didn’t drop another set until the final, and held off Andy Murray in a tough straight-sets semifinal. He beat Federer in the final 7-5, 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-1, saving a set point in the first set and holding from love-40 down to open the fourth set.

15. 2017 U.S. Open

After a disappointing loss to Gilles Muller in the fourth round of Wimbledon, Nadal won the U.S. Open at Flushing Meadows, New York. He got off to a bit of a slow start, dropping a set in the second and third round, but played his best at the end of the tournament. In the semifinals, he crushed Juan Martin del Potro after losing the first set, 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2. He then topped 28th-ranked Kevin Anderson in the final in straight sets. Overall, the Spaniard wasn’t really pushed during the tournament, and claimed his 16th slam title and his third U.S. Open.

14. 2012 Roland-Garros

Nadal won a tough four-set final against Djokovic, surpassing Bjorn Borg’s record of six French Open titles. The set was the only one he dropped all tournament, serving up constant 6-0, 6-1, and 6-2 sets. The title was his third straight French Open, and snapped a streak of three straight grand slam final losses to Djokovic. For those reasons, this French Open win was among his more meaningful titles in Paris.

13. 2006 Roland-Garros

Defending a title always shows a champion’s mettle, and Nadal showed the world he wasn’t going away by claiming his second French Open title. He beat Federer in the final losing a lopsided first set but winning the next three, hitting a superbly angled swing volley winner on match point. This was also a likely source of confidence as he made his first Wimbledon final a month later.

12. 2014 Roland-Garros

This win marked Nadal’s fifth straight French Open. The victory was meaningful for another reason though- after winning the U.S. Open in 2013, he entered the 2014 Australian Open as the top seed and stormed to the final, a heavy favorite against 8th-seeded Stan Wawrinka. Nadal hurt his back in the warmup, and though he didn’t retire, his game was crippled (though he somehow won a set, losing 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6). It was a hugely emotional loss, and winning at Roland-Garros probably erased some of the pain. In the final, he came from a set down to beat Djokovic at the French Open for the third straight year.

11. 2019 Roland Garros

As with the 2012 French Open, Djokovic had won the three majors prior to the event. He’d beaten Nadal in the 2018 Wimbledon semis and the final of the 2019 Australian Open, and some picked him as the favorite over Nadal to win. To complicate things further, Nadal had lost more than usual in the clay season, with surprising losses to Thiem, Fabio Fognini, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. He had also suffered a knee injury after Indian Wells. But the Spaniard entered the event healthy, dropping just one set on his way to the final. He then took revenge on Thiem (who had beaten Djokovic in a five-set semifinal) 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1, not giving his younger opponent a chance after the second set. Nadal cried for a while after and was extremely emotional, revealing that his knee injury was not only physically restricting but mentally draining.

10. 2010 Roland-Garros

This was the first time since 2005 that Nadal did not go into the tournament as defending champion. Robin Soderling had handed him his first-ever loss at the French Open in 2009, and Nadal ripped through the draw with a vengeance. He got his revenge over Soderling in the final, winning in straight sets. After the first time his trophy had been ripped away from him, he quickly got it back- truly an emotional win.

9. 2017 Roland-Garros

The 2017 win ranks this high simply for emotional reasons. Nadal did not drop a set on his way to his tenth French Open, losing just six games to Wawrinka in the final. After losing for the first time in years in Paris in 2015, and pulling out of the 2016 event with an injury, this win had to be among Nadal’s most emotional ever. He’d lost a brutal five-set final to Federer in the final of the 2017 Australian Open, losing a break advantage in the fifth set, and this slam probably let him relax a bit- it was his first major since the 2014 French Open, and showed others and himself that he wasn’t done yet.

8. 2010 Wimbledon

This is one of the first non-French Open slams on the list, and therefore among the least meaningful of his slam wins outside Paris. In the final Nadal faced Tomas Berdych, who had beaten both Federer and Djokovic, in the quarters and semis respectively. Rafa won in straight sets, ending with a gorgeous crosscourt forehand passing shot. It wasn’t all easy though- Nadal had to come back from two sets to one down in both the second and third rounds. The title was Nadal’s second Wimbledon and the second of three slams he would win that year.

7. 2013 Roland-Garros

This win earns the number 7 spot because of one match- Nadal’s semifinal with top-ranked Djokovic. This is the only time, in my opinion, that a prime Rafael Nadal had been pushed all the way at the French Open. Djokovic broke Nadal when he served for the match in the fourth set, won a fourth-set tiebreak, and broke at the start of the fifth, only to see Nadal claw back and win 9-7 to cap a marathon match (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (3), 9-7). He then went on to beat his countryman David Ferrer in straight sets in the final. Back to the Djokovic match, though- Nadal was down a break for much of the fifth set- with his opponent serving at 4-3 and deuce, Djokovic forced the court open, eventually putting away an angled volley. The only problem? He stumbled into the net, automatically forfeiting the point. So instead of ad-Djokovic, it became break point. Nadal missed that chance to break, but grabbed the next one to even the set at 4-4. That volley is regarded as one of the turning points of tennis history. With all respect to Ferrer, the semifinal between Nadal and Djokovic was very likely to produce the winner of the tournament. To date, Djokovic has won just one French Open title- had he not run into the net, he could have won the match. The rest could have been history.

6. 2019 U.S. Open

Nadal reached the final of this slam without much difficulty, dropping one set to Marin Cilic in the fourth round before upping his game and dominating the Croat for the remainder of the match. In the final, Rafa clashed with a red-hot Daniil Medvedev in a near five-hour, five-set epic. Nadal took a two set lead, and had opportunities to win the third, but Medvedev adjusted beautifully, and looked the stronger player at the start of the fifth. Nadal repelled three break points at 0-1 in the decider, and when serving for the match at 5-4, 30-40, played a beautiful three-point sequence: he saved the break point with a vicious inside-out forehand that forced a error, reached championship point with a drop shot winner, and won the title with a 124 mph ace down the tee that Medvedev couldn’t handle. Nadal had been up a double break, and missed two championship points on Medvedev’s serve at 5-3 in the fifth. When break point down at 5-4, it seemed that he had lost the momentum and might be about to face a devastating loss. But Nadal’s best tennis kicked in when he was under the most pressure, and he won his 19th slam under the lights in New York. This slam pulled him within one of Federer’s all-time men’s record of 20.

5. 2005 Roland-Garros

A player’s first slam is always among the most emotional. I was surprised myself while making this list at how low I ranked this one- more of a tribute to Nadal’s hardest fought slam wins than anything else. Still, this could probably be ranked a few spots higher. Nadal, though he turned just 19 in the middle of the tournament, was made the favorite by the bookies after he dominated the pre-French Open clay season. The miracle teenager delivered, toppling world No. 1 Federer in the semis and coming from a set down to beat Mariano Puerta in the final. This was the tournament that a scrappy tennis player from Manacor truly introduced himself to even the most casual tennis fan, and one that will surely live long in his memory.

4. 2013 U.S. Open

Nadal hadn’t won a slam off the clay since 2010. But at the 2013 U.S. Open, Nadal dropped just one set on his way to the final. His opponent? Novak Djokovic, who had made the semifinals or better at the U.S. Open each year since 2007. The Spaniard played a brilliant match, however. He won a lopsided first set 6-2, but Djokovic hit back, winning the second set 6-3 and going up 2-0 in the third set. Nadal saved a break point to avoid going down two breaks, though, and evened the set quickly. Then, at 4-4, Nadal fell behind love-40 on serve. He saved the first break point with a brilliant forehand winner, the second when Djokovic missed after a long rally, and the third with a 125 mph ace, his first of the match. Then, returning at 5-4 up, Nadal won a fantastic point with Djokovic up 30-love. Djokovic (from Serbia) then missed two regulation ground strokes, setting up a set point for Nadal. Throughout the rally (over 15 shots) Djokovic only let Nadal see two forehands. On the second, the Spaniard ripped the ball up the line, and Djokovic hit long. The fourth set was a formality, with Nadal winning 6-1. As stated before, the win was the first slam Nadal had claimed off the clay in years, showing again that he is an all-surface player. He also avenged his defeat to Djokovic in the 2011 U.S. Open final. Overall, a huge win and confidence boost for Nadal, who would have a brilliant start to 2014.

3. 2010 U.S. Open

Nadal completed his career grand slam with this title, easily making it among his most emotional slam wins. He also improved his serve dramatically before the tournament, serving up to 135 mph during the two weeks and getting many more free points than usual. Entering the tournament as the top seed, Nadal made the final without dropping a set and then delivered a masterclass against Djokovic, hitting his backhand and serve brutally well. This victory completed the Spaniard’s career grand slam, joining a select group of just Federer and Andre Agassi in the Open Era to achieve the feat.

2. 2009 Australian Open

This could easily take the No. 1 spot, but the 2008 Wimbledon just edges it out. Nadal had taken the top spot in the rankings by 2009, but still hadn’t claimed a slam on hard court. This remains Nadal’s only Australian Open title, so this tournament is extremely crucial to his legacy. The Spaniard cruised to the semifinals, where he ran into 14th seed and countryman Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco played unbelievably well, hitting an astonishing 95 winners. He still lost the match. Nadal won 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (2), 6-7 (1), 6-4 in five hours and 14 minutes. After the incredibly physical match, Nadal had to play Roger Federer in the final, and he states in his autobiography Rafa that he expected to lose 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 to his great rival. But Nadal recovered to win another punishing five-setter (in four hours this time) 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-2. This may be the hardest Nadal has had to fight to win a slam, and has to be a treasured title to the Spaniard.

1. 2008 Wimbledon

Nadal had been the No. 2 seed for three years. He had lost to Federer, world number one and the winner of the past five Wimbledons, in the final of the 2006 and 2007 Championships. Nadal and Federer stormed to the final, and what would follow went down in the minds of many as the greatest match ever. Nadal came out playing brilliantly, winning the first two sets by identical 6-4 scores. Federer fought back to win the third set 7-6 (5), hitting four aces in the tiebreak. The fourth set also went to a tiebreak, and Nadal went up 5-2 before letting his rival back into the breaker with a double fault and a missed backhand. He had a match point at 7-6, but Federer erased it with a huge serve. After hitting a spectacular passing shot down the line, he had another match point at 8-7. Federer erased it with a brutally precise backhand passing shot down the line. Federer then took the tiebreak 10-8 to push the match into a fifth set. Down 3-4 in the deciding set, Nadal faced a break point at 30-40, and saved it with nerveless aggressive tennis, pounding an overhead into the seats. He then broke Federer’s serve for the first time since the second set, going up 8-7. Nadal then survived deuce to serve out the match, sealing a famous win: 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-7 (8), 9-7. The victory is a huge turning point in tennis history. The No. 2 dethroning the No. 1. Nadal developing into an all-court player. Nadal moving towards the number one ranking. This match is one of Nadal’s best matches and most emotional wins, while being perhaps Federer’s most devastating loss. Overall, the only place for the 2008 Wimbledon is the top spot in the rankings.

Disagree with the order or have other feedback? Email me or tweet @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!