Roger Federer Clings On

By Owen Lewis

On September 4th, 2018, during the early morning under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, 20-time major champion Roger Federer sent a forehand well wide of the tramlines. It was his 77th unforced error of the match, and the one that completed his 6-3, 5-7, 6-7 (7), 6-7 (3) loss to Australian John Millman. The Aussie took off his baseball cap, in an almost businesslike fashion, and walked quickly to the net for the post-match handshake.

Fifteen and a half months later, on the bright blue court of Rod Laver Arena, Federer returned a huge Millman forehand with a defensive backhand slice that hung up in the air and fell just past the service line. Millman cracked an inside-in forehand, and anticipating the direction of the shot, Federer ran it down and belted a crosscourt forehand that caught his Aussie opponent out of position, and sped into the left corner for a winner. Federer had gotten revenge for his loss at the U.S. Open with an incredibly dramatic 4-6, 7-6 (2), 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 (8) victory in the third round of the Australian Open.

The 38-year-old Swiss is past his prime, this is unquestionable. Since his 2018 victory Down Under, he’s suffered a series of average results at the Grand Slams, making just one final and one semifinal in the seven following majors. At this year’s edition of the Australian Open, though, Federer seemed to be blessed with a comfortable path to the semifinals — the highest seeds in his quarter, Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini, were upset in the first and second rounds, respectively. And after the six-time Australian Open champion won his first two matches comfortably, many believed that he would sail to the semifinals, where he would likely face a rematch with Novak Djokovic (who had beaten him in the 2019 Wimbledon final. Federer got a measure of revenge by beating the Serb at the group stage of the ATP finals, but the magnitude of the matches doesn’t compare). But Millman was waiting in the third round, and the Swiss needed all of his poise and experience to get over the line.

Millman signaled his intentions early on, breaking in the third game and going on to take the first set. Federer bounced back to win the next two, but it appeared that a repeat of their Flushing Meadows battle was on the cards when the Aussie evened the match and went up a break in the fifth set. The Swiss managed to break back, and each man navigated through difficult service games at the end of the frame. Yet the moment of highest tension came in the newly-installed fifth-set, ten-point super-tiebreak.

Federer got off to a poor start by hitting long on his opening service point, and for a while it seemed that this could be a fatal error. Millman played beautifully for the majority of the tiebreak, holding his first six points on serve and taking an 8-4 lead with back-to-back forehand passing shots on the run. With the underdog striking the ball so well, few expected a Federer comeback, but a combination of Millman’s nerves and the Swiss’s refusal to capitulate turned the tide.

After Millman’s second passing shot, a ferociously angled crosscourt forehand, Federer pulled back to 8-5 with a well-shaped backhand that forced an error. The next point was a brutal forehand-to-forehand rally, and eventually Federer drove a forehand down the line and Millman sent his backhand long. The Aussie then pushed a forehand past the baseline, putting the tiebreak back on serve at 8-7. Back on serve, Federer engaged Millman in another attritional forehand duel, again being the first to change direction and following up with a drop shot. It wasn’t the Swiss’s best dropper, and Millman reached it easily but looped a makeable forehand well long. At 8-all, Federer came to net, forcing the issue, and was rewarded when Millman swung a lob beyond the baseline. Finally, Federer converted the first and only match point of the contest by correctly guessing the location of Millman’s final forehand and belting a winner off that same wing.

In an upset-riddled night in Melbourne that saw Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka crash out of the tournament, Federer had narrowly avoided a similar fate. Had Millman clung on to his lead in the final tiebreak, it would have been Federer’s earliest exit at a slam for five years, and likely would have sparked furious conversation about the Swiss’s decline. Millman looked understandably devastated after the match — for all his brilliant play up until 8-4 in the tiebreak, the string of errors that followed, both forced and unforced, proved his undoing. Federer seemed relieved in the post-match interview, expressing his luck at guessing correctly on match point. He spoke not as if he was already looking ahead to the fourth round but as if a crisis had been averted.

Still, it was no doubt an impressive comeback, and it’s not the first time Federer’s made such a great escape. During the 2009 Wimbledon final against Andy Roddick, the Swiss lost the first set 7-5 and fell behind 6-2 in the second set tiebreak. Federer won the next six points and the breaker, 8-6. After the Swiss celebrated with a passionate yell, commentator Andrew Castle declared, “Now, there is never a bad time to win six points in a row. But to win them from 6-2 down in the tiebreak…well, that was probably the passage of play that will decide the champion of Wimbledon this year”. Spoiler alert: it was, though it required an almighty struggle to put Roddick away in the end — Federer won 5-7, 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5), 3-6, 16-14.

Amazingly, Federer again picked the best possible time to win six points in a row, ten and a half years after that epic Wimbledon final. This time, the streak didn’t just win an important set and signal a key momentum change, but won the Swiss the match altogether.

Still, much has changed since that match in 2009. Back then, Federer was ranked No. 1 in the world and was considered (after defeating Roddick, he held the all-time men’s record for most major titles) the greatest men’s tennis player ever by many. Now, that status is being threatened by Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Federer’s two biggest rivals who split the four slams in 2019. The trio are immersed in a Grand Slam race, one that Federer holds a slim lead in (20 slams to Nadal’s 19 and Djokovic’s 16). Federer currently stands at number three in the ATP rankings, while his rivals occupy the top two spots. The Swiss hasn’t won a major title for two years, but such a tense, dramatic victory may help him get deep into the draw. While Federer’s form against Millman wasn’t as impressive as it was in his first two matches, he has now survived an extremely testing match, which could prove beneficial.

A potential semifinal with Djokovic awaits, who has won their last four meetings in majors, dating back to Wimbledon in 2014. In order to win a 21st major, Federer will likely have to overcome the most successful male player at the Australian Open (Djokovic is a seven-time champion in Melbourne), and then win his next match, too. The Swiss is an underdog in this Australian Open, and it is yet to be seen whether the great escape act from Millman’s clutches will prove a springboard that propels him closer to the final or a bright ray from the twilight of Federer’s accomplished career. Time will tell.