Tag: Djokovic

The Intriguing Djokovic-Federer Rivalry

By Owen Lewis

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are two of the greatest tennis players of all time. They have 37 major titles between them, and their prolific rivalry is second on the men’s side in terms of volume of matches (Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have played more).

They weave fascinating patterns when playing, with Federer often trying to work his way to the net and using his slice to keep Djokovic off balance, while Djokovic attempts to attack Federer’s weaker backhand wing and engage in sapping baseline rallies. The latter strategy has proved to be slightly more successful, as Djokovic leads the rivalry 27-23.

Behind these numbers lie extremely close contests and remarkable statistics. Djokovic leads their rivalry in majors 11-6, and has won three matches from double match point down, including the 2019 Wimbledon final. Federer won four of their first five meetings on the biggest stage, but since then the story of the rivalry in majors has been Djokovic claiming the biggest points and the matches.

Federer, despite earning more break point chances, has actually broken less often than Djokovic when they clash in a major. Djokovic has made the most of more of his opportunities, as he did at the 2015 U.S. Open final: converting six of 13 break points to Federer’s four of 23.

Though Federer is more than five years older than Djokovic, he has remained competitive in their matches. He has won at least a set in all but three of their meetings in majors, and actually leads the rivalry in best-of-three contests: 17-16.

The rivalry is very close across all three surfaces. Djokovic leads 3-1 on grass and 20-18 on hard courts, and they are tied 4-4 on clay. However, Djokovic has a 13-6 edge in tournament finals. He is, as reflected by the break point statistics above, better in pressured situations than Federer, and is an excellent big match player as well.

Djokovic can execute his desired strategy in big moments more reliably and effectively than Federer. In the 2019 Wimbledon final, Djokovic won three tiebreaks, during which many baseline exchanges took place. Such patterns allow Djokovic to take control of points with his pace redirection and safe yet penetrating groundstrokes, and expose Federer’s fragile backhand.

Above: consecutive points from the crucial third-set tiebreak in Novak Djokovic’s 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) win over Roger Federer in the 2019 Wimbledon final. Note the placement of Djokovic’s shots in the second point; while they are aggressive enough to take control of the point, they are relatively safe in that they’re not particularly close to the lines. Djokovic’s ability to play points in this manner has been instrumental in him dominating his recent tiebreaks with Federer.

Federer is long past his prime, while Djokovic is yet to decline as much. The latter has dominated the second phase of the rivalry, boasting a 21-10 record against Federer since the start of 2011. This is likely due to a combination of Djokovic ascending to his best form and Federer’s age-related decline, as well as Djokovic establishing his superiority on big points.

A recent trend in the rivalry is Djokovic’s winning streak in tiebreaks. He has won the last six, beginning with a tight breaker in the first set of his 2018 Paris semifinal with Federer. Djokovic saved a set point on his way to winning the tiebreak 8-6, and since has lost just 16 points in the next five breakers. In the last four, he has made zero unforced errors.

Federer’s game is higher-risk than Djokovic’s. With Djokovic refusing to make an unforced error in their tiebreaks, all the pressure falls on Federer to win points with winners or by forcing errors. At the 2020 Australian Open, Djokovic won a first-set tiebreak 7-1, with Federer striking a forehand winner to score his lone point. With Federer’s margin for error in tiebreaks being virtually nonexistent, his best hope to win sets against Djokovic is before the score gets to 6-all.

As is the case in virtually all rivalries, the winner of the first set sees their chances to win the match vastly increase. But the opening frame is much more important to Federer than it is to Djokovic. The leader in the rivalry has beaten Federer from a set down seven times, including twice in majors, while Federer has gotten the best of Djokovic after losing the first set just once: in 2014.

Even before 2011, the year in which Djokovic rose to the peak of his powers and began to turn around the rivalry, Djokovic had beaten Federer from a set down three times, including in the semifinals of the 2010 U.S. Open. Federer’s skills as a frontrunner are often spoken of, but in this matchup it’s Djokovic who is tougher to beat from a set down. Since Federer’s comeback win in the 2014 Dubai final (he won 3-6, 6-3, 6-2) seems to be something of a one-off, Federer virtually needs to take the first set in his matches with Djokovic to win the match.

With Federer standing at 38 years old and recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, it’s unlikely that he will rebound from his deficit in the rivalry. But if he is to, he has to be very opportunistic. His challenges are more mental than physical; Federer managed to play for four hours and 56 minutes last year in the Wimbledon final, keeping the match very close. Yet he consistently loses most of the big points when he plays Djokovic, and losing the first set against him is practically a death warrant to Federer’s chances of winning the match.

As for Djokovic, if he continues to win the lion’s share of the big points against Federer, he will continue to win most of their matches. He can even afford lapses, such as the second set of the 2019 Wimbledon final, as long as he is sharp in important moments.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions or feedback, please leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

What Makes a Tennis Match Great?

By Owen Lewis

In the gallery of epic tennis matches lie contests of diverse length, competitiveness, and quality. The Nadal-Federer 2008 Wimbledon final is renowned for not just the eye-popping winners, but for the two rain delays that extended the match, the fact that it ended in darkness, and the historical significance. The men’s 2012 Australian Open final redefined the limits of physical endurance in tennis as Novak Djokovic overcame exhaustion and Rafael Nadal to win an impossibly attritional five-hour, 53-minute battle. The 2018 Australian Open semifinal between Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber is of legendary status for its third set, a frame of heavenly quality in which both players saved a pair of match points before Halep edged out her rival.

What do these classics have in common? The first answer that comes to mind is that they are all extremely close, with the results hinging on one or two key points. But this criterion could also apply to a match in which errors were made on every point. The quality of the tennis is crucial, not just in terms of how many winners were hit but relating to rally intensity as well. In the Halep-Kerber semifinal, there was one more unforced error than winner between the players, but such was the length and intensity of the exchanges that this stat loses a lot of weight.

Some prefer the first-strike tennis that is seen frequently at Wimbledon, while others are partial to the longer rallies that Roland-Garros gives way to, so in that sense quality can be subjective.

A strange commonality between many fantastic matches are small chokes. At first this seems ridiculous, as a choke is a dip in level, but often times a lapse from one player will spark a spirited comeback by the other. The aforementioned 2008 Wimbledon final and 2012 Australian Open final both featured mini-chokes by the eventual winner that greatly increased the overall quality of the match. In the former, Nadal led two sets to one and 5-2 in the fourth-set tiebreak but made consecutive errors on serve, allowing Federer to get a foothold in the breaker. While the two points were lost on unforced mistakes, it lengthened the tiebreak, allowing the Center Court crowd to witness perhaps the finest ever back-to-back passing shots a few minutes later, as well as an absorbing fifth set. Djokovic led the 2012 final in Melbourne two sets to one and held a 5-3 advantage in the tiebreak, but made three forehand unforced errors that helped Nadal win the fourth set. A minor choke, yes, yet it allowed an 80-minute fifth set that made the match the longest major final ever. The Halep-Kerber semifinal saw both players make an unforced error on match point in a game that they would end up losing, but this contributed to the drama and the length of the third set. Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitová clashed for possession of the 2019 Australian Open title, and Osaka had three championship points in the second set, yet couldn’t take any, failed to serve out the match, and lost the frame. Yet she rebounded to win the third, thereby making the final an example of her mental fortitude.

Another feature of great contests is a simultaneously high level of play from the participants. The 2019 Wimbledon final between Djokovic and Federer saw Djokovic lapse significantly in the second and fourth sets, while Federer was unable to find his best level in the three tiebreaks that took place during the final. While there was some high-quality play from both, the unevenly strong tennis was significant enough that this match is generally not considered one of the best ever, though it did take nearly five hours to crown a winner.

Most matches heralded as the best ever contain at least one legend of the game, often two. This is partly because the strongest players are the most capable of producing high-quality tennis, and partly because matches with lower-ranked players get less attention from fans and pundits. Yet having two all-time greats isn’t a requirement for a spectacle. Fernando Verdasco, an ATP player that has never made it inside the top five, took part in one of the finest matches ever, a 2009 Australian Open semifinal with Nadal (Nadal’s presence in many of the best men’s contests deserves a mention, his capacity to play epic matches is probably unparalleled on the ATP). Verdasco went for broke from the outset, clocking 95 winners across a five-hour, 14-minute battle that saw several amazing rallies (he would end up losing 6-4 in the fifth. The performance was likely his finest). Anyone can take part in an epic; it depends on level of play, not status.

The atmosphere and crowd at a match can contribute to its place in the history books. While both are unrelated to the forehands and backhands struck by the athletes, crowd support can energize a player. The 2001 Wimbledon final between Pat Rafter and Goran Ivanišević is known as “People’s Monday”. An excellent match in its own right, the final was bolstered by the buzzing crowd, many of them Croatian or Australian and ecstatic to see their man in the Wimbledon final. The five-set battle is also remembered for Ivanišević’s improbable triumph; he entered the tournament courtesy of a wild card and was ranked outside the top 100.

A great tennis match defines a variety of contests, and has many criteria, yet failing to meet one or two doesn’t often disqualify a match from being great. There have been epics of myriad types in the past, and there will surely be many more in the future.

Thanks for reading! If you have questions or feedback, please leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation.

The Challenges of Clay Court Tennis

By Owen Lewis

After the fortnight of fiery excitement at Melbourne Park, and the closely-packed Indian Wells and Miami tournaments, battle is waged on clay courts for ten weeks. Matches on the dirt lay bare the games of each player. Whereas on grass a player hitting only serves in a game isn’t tremendously unusual, clay often forces athletes to move well, exhibit patience in rallies, and slide to get into position nearly every point.

In 2009, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic contested the final of the first big tournament of the clay season: the Monte-Carlo Masters. The show court in Monte-Carlo is among the prettiest on tour; the rich orange clay that makes up the playing surface contrasts nicely with vibrant blue waters surrounding one side of the stadium.

Monte-Carlo is a beautiful gladiator arena that houses fierce struggles. The first three games of the deciding set of the 2009 Monte-Carlo final lasted a staggering 41 minutes. The highlight of the interval was Nadal running down a beautifully executed drop volley on the stretch from Djokovic and guiding a crosscourt forehand winner past his opponent at net. Nadal pulled this off on the 38th shot of a rally on break point. As picturesque waters gleamed in the background, Nadal and Djokovic were exchanging grunts and vicious groundstrokes.

Only on clay do such long rallies occur consistently. The surface is the slowest among the trio that make up the tennis circuit, making it more difficult to thread winners through gaps in the opponent’s defense. This stretches out points, and while fewer rallies might end with a dazzling winner, more are earned through grinding, sliding defense.

After the dust (literally) settled from the brutal first three games of the 2009 Monte-Carlo final, Nadal led 2-1, having broken for 2-0 before Djokovic returned the favor to get back on serve. Not disheartened in the least by losing his break advantage, Nadal reeled off the last four games of the match.

The final score was 6-3, 2-6, 6-1, and yet the match lasted for two hours and 42 minutes. The third set, the most lopsided of the lot, required almost an hour of classic clay court tennis to be completed. On April 19th in 2009, Nadal and Djokovic captured the essence of clay during the Monte-Carlo final. They produced competitive games that transcended the score. Marathon rallies captivated the crowd, and winners were a product of either a brave decision to go for the lines, or by opening up the court with a physically taxing, methodically placed series of groundstrokes.

Twenty-six days later, Djokovic and Nadal clashed again, this time in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open. The clay in the Spanish capital is a slightly duller color than the Monte-Carlo dirt, and plays slightly faster. Somehow, they managed to eclipse their Monte-Carlo epic with a three-setter of almost unprecedented length: four hours and three minutes.

The 2009 Madrid semifinal between Nadal and Djokovic deserves far more than a couple hundred words, but as the purpose of this article is to describe the spirit of clay as a surface, it will have to suffice. If the takeaway from Monte-Carlo was that the pair produced attritional matches on clay, Madrid suggested that Djokovic and Nadal were made to play extended matches atop the dirt (though in the future, they would produce amazing struggles on every surface). Djokovic won the first set comfortably, 6-3, Nadal edged a tiebreak in the second set, and the decider came down to another tiebreak. Djokovic held match point at 6-5, 7-6, and 9-8, but Nadal evened the score each time (he hit inside-in forehand winners after long rallies to save the first two match points and struck a service winner to erase the third). Despite Djokovic brilliantly saving a match point of his own, Nadal claimed the tiebreak 11-9, falling to the clay in elation.

One might think that one of Nadal and Djokovic, seemingly addicted to exhausting, enthralling matches on clay, would win the French Open in 2009. Neither made it past the fourth round of the season’s most important tournament. Roger Federer, a player with a more attacking brand than Djokovic or Nadal, took the title in Paris that year. He defeated Nadal in the Madrid final the day after the semifinal epic, and topped Robin Soderling to win his first French Open title.

Why the abbreviated history of the 2009 clay season? It was one of the most interesting dirt swings in recent memory. Djokovic and Nadal were the headline for much of the clay season (the latter defeated the former in the final of the last clay Masters 1000, the Italian Open in Rome), playing terrific tennis, only for another player to grab the biggest clay court prize of the year. Djokovic would win his lone French Open title seven years later, and Federer’s 2009 trophy remains his only one. Nadal has won Roland-Garros 12 times. It’s difficult not to mention Nadal’s name in any sentence including “the French Open”, or even “clay”, such is his dominance on the surface. Djokovic and Federer did well to nab a title each in Paris; many players haven’t been as fortunate.

The French Open is the prize that has remained out of reach for several legends of tennis. Names such as John McEnroe, Stefan Edberg, Jimmy Connors, and Pete Sampras have secured practically every prestigious trophy besides the Coupe des Mousquetaires. Players who are comfortable on faster courts sometimes seem out of place on clay; their slides aren’t quite as smooth, their heavy serves slowed by the dirt. McEnroe and Edberg have both lost five-set finals on Court Philippe-Chatrier, the show court at Roland-Garros, while Connors and Sampras have never been past the semifinals (the former made the semifinals four times; Sampras has been to the last four once).

The above quartet of incredible tennis players was never quite able to master the French Open. While Court Philippe-Chatrier has housed some matches for the ages, it’s also unforgiving. In the 1984 final, McEnroe took a two-set lead over Ivan Lendl, then had chances to win the third and fourth, but ended up losing his advantage and the match. It was McEnroe’s first French Open final and it would be his last.

Perhaps the harshest match on Phillipe-Chatrier was the 2004 French Open final. Argentines Guillermo Coria and Gaston Gaudio wrestled for possession of the Coupe des Mousquetaires that year, and with Coria leading 6-0, 6-3, 4-3, 40-15 (with Gaudio serving), the match looked to be all but over. But Gaudio managed to level the contest, save two championship points, and win the title with a smooth crosscourt backhand winner (watch highlights of the match here). The final has gone down as one of the biggest chokes in tennis history. Coria, a terrific clay court player, was never able to mentally recover from losing the match, and problems with his game and his confidence hounded him until the end of his career.

Clay is anathema for many players whose serve is their biggest weapon. Granted, John Isner stunned the tennis world by taking Nadal to five sets in the first round of the 2011 French Open, but he’s never made the quarterfinals in Paris. Ivo Karlović, another athlete known for his imposing serve, has only gone as far as the third round. It’s typically less powerful, more physical players that win Roland-Garros. Nadal is 6’1”, and hits fewer aces than just about everyone in the top 100, but on clay his incredible topspin forehand and his defensive abilities more than make up the deficit. Federer, Djokovic, and Stanislas Wawrinka, the other three players to have won the French Open in the last fifteen years, all have stronger serves, but their games are well-rounded enough to engage in the skidding rallies that clay demands.

Philippe-Chatrier has ample space beyond the lines of the court, allowing players like Nadal and Djokovic to defend to their heart’s content. The clay season draws the defensive side out of athletes. One-two punches are far more difficult to execute on dirt; often what would be a winner on grass is returned deep, discouraging another attacking shot and instead leading to a neutral rally. The art of sliding must also be mastered. Djokovic is able to slide on all three surfaces (very few others can slide on grass, but he executes it to great effect), but it’s most widely done on clay.

Roland-Garros is not taking place in its normal time slot this year. The COVID-19 outbreak has forced the French Open to reschedule for late September. A roof has been installed on Phillipe-Chatrier, and if the tournament happens this year the first indoor matches at Roland-Garros will likely take place. But as many things are changing, the clay stays the same. It is sleeping patiently, eagerly dreaming about future rallies to rival the 38-shot slugfest between Nadal and Djokovic at Monte-Carlo in 2009. When the tour resumes, the waves will still be lapping gently around Monaco, Phillipe-Chatrier will still be an expansive canvas for defensive painting, and the clay will be ready to absorb the most forceful of shots.

Thanks for reading! Stay safe, wash your hands, and practice social distancing!

6500 Words On The G.O.A.T. Debate

By Owen Lewis

Perhaps the most-talked about aspect of tennis is the debate over which member of the Big Three will be crowned the greatest male tennis player of all time. Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal are battling for eternal glory; their résumés are distinctly different and similar at the same time, and it’s been a question for a while now of whose claim is the best. I’m going to analyze their greatest accomplishments and compare them, as it stands on May 8th, 2020.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has won 19 majors, second among the legendary trio. An astounding 12 French Open titles belong to the Spaniard; he shattered the previous men’s record of six, held by Björn Borg, in 2012, and broke Margaret Court’s record of 11 titles at a single major in 2019. He has won at least two slams on each surface (2 on grass, 5 on hard court, and 12 on clay), owns 35 Masters 1000 titles (a men’s record), and is the only member of the Big Three to have won an Olympic gold medal in singles (he beat Djokovic in the semifinals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics).

He leads his head-to-head with Federer 24-16, and 10-4 in majors, and while he trails Djokovic 26-29 he has won 9 of their 15 meetings in slams. Combined, he emerged victorious in 19 of his 29 matches in majors against the other two, by far the best record of the trio.

Nadal has the best winning percentage in majors of the trio (and of every active male player).

Nadal has defended his French Open title nine times, more times than either Djokovic or Federer have won a single major.

From 2005 to 2014, Nadal went 18-5 in major meetings against Federer and Djokovic. He is the only member of the Big Three to have won three slams on three different surfaces in the same calendar year.

Nadal is the only male player ever to win hard court, grass court, and clay court majors in the same calendar year (in 2010, he won the French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open back-to-back-to-back).

Nadal has won the Davis Cup (a team event in which players play for their country) a world record five times, while Federer and Djokovic have each won it a single time.

In his career, Nadal has lost just twice at the French Open, out of 14 complete appearances (he pulled out with injury in 2016). For reference, Federer has lost 13 times at Wimbledon, his most successful major, and Djokovic has fallen eight times at the Australian Open. Nadal won the French Open on his first attempt, and did not lose in Paris until his fifth tournament in 2009.

Nadal has beaten at least one of Federer or Djokovic on his way to winning 13 majors (out of 19 total).

Nadal’s biggest winning streak on clay stands at a mighty 81 matches.

From after Wimbledon in 2007 to before the 2017 Australian Open, Nadal won all six of his major matches with Federer (three at the Australian Open, one at Wimbledon, and two at the French Open). Despite grass being the surface on which he has had the least success, he dethroned Federer, who had won the tournament the last five years, in the final of Wimbledon in 2008.

Nadal has won majors in his teens, 20s, and 30s.

Nadal entered the top 10 as an eighteen-year-old in 2005, and has retained a spot in the top 10 ever since — 778 weeks (almost 15 years).

In 2013, Nadal won two Masters 1000 titles on clay, the French Open, two Masters 1000 titles on hard court, and the U.S. Open. Federer and Djokovic have never done this, and neither has anyone in the Open Era.

Nadal has a better appearance-to-final berth ratio in majors off of clay than Djokovic or Federer have on clay (Nadal makes 34.9% of nonclay slam finals, Djokovic makes the French Open final 26.7% of the time and Federer makes the French Open final 27.8% of the time), and a better appearance-to-final berth ratio at the French Open than Djokovic or Federer have at the other majors combined (80% for Nadal on clay, Djokovic makes 48.8% of nonclay major finals and Federer makes 44.1%)

Nadal has made multiple major finals in ten different seasons (2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2019). Federer has made more than one major final in nine seasons (2004-2010, 2015, and 2017), while Djokovic has accomplished the feat eight times (2011-2016, 2018, and 2019).

Nadal is 29-13 when facing a top-5 player at a major (a 69.1% winning percentage). Djokovic is 31-20 (winning 60.8% of the time), and Federer is 29-26 (52.7% winning percentage).

Nadal has a 2-1 record against Djokovic at the U.S. Open, despite hard courts being Djokovic’s best surface.

Nadal has beaten both Federer and Djokovic at the same major three times (the French Open in 2006, 2007, and 2008). Djokovic has beaten Nadal and Federer at the same major once (the 2011 U.S. Open), and Federer has never topped the other two at the same slam.

He has won at least one major and one Masters 1000 title every year from 2005 to 2014, the longest streak owned by any Big Three member.

Nadal is 31-9 in matches against Djokovic and Federer on clay.

Nadal has achieved the rare “Channel Double”, the feat of winning the French Open and Wimbledon back-to-back, twice (in 2008 and 2010). Federer has done it once, in 2009, and Djokovic has never accomplished this.

Finally, Nadal won the 2009 Australian Open by playing a five-hour, 14-minute semifinal followed by a four-hour, 23-minute final, with one day’s rest in between (he beat Federer in the final).

Roger Federer

Federer has won 20 majors, more than Nadal, Djokovic, and every other man in history.

Federer is the oldest man to win a major and Masters 1000 in the Open Era.

Federer has won multiple majors without losing a set, including Wimbledon in 2017 when he was 35 years old.

At the French Open in 2011, Federer defeated Djokovic in a four-set semifinal. The Serb had been undefeated that year; Federer snapped his winning streak of over 40 matches.

At Hamburg in 2007, Federer beat Nadal 2-6, 6-2, 6-0, snapping the Spaniard’s 81-match winning streak on clay.

Federer is the oldest man to obtain the number one ranking in the Open Era (he was 36 when earning the mantle in early 2018)

He owns the all-time men’s record for weeks in the top spot of the rankings: 310. Nadal has 209, and Djokovic has 282. Federer has also held the number one ranking for the longest period before losing it: 237 weeks, more time than for which Nadal has been number one altogether.

Federer made 10 consecutive major finals from the 2005 Wimbledon to the 2007 U.S. Open, and another eight in a row from the 2008 French Open to the 2010 Australian Open.

He has made 36 consecutive major quarterfinals (nine years’ worth of majors).

Federer came from two sets down against Tommy Haas in the fourth round of the 2009 French Open, then beat Juan Martín del Potro from two sets to one down in the semifinals on his way to winning his only French Open title.

Federer has an Olympic silver medal in singles and a gold medal in doubles (partnered with Stan Wawrinka)

Federer has won 103 tournaments, comfortably more than Nadal’s 85 and Djokovic’s 79.

He has made 23 consecutive major semifinals.

Federer won five Wimbledon titles in a row from 2003-2007, and five U.S. Open titles from 2004-2008.

He is the only member of the Big Three to have at least five titles at three different majors (he has five U.S. Open titles, eight Wimbledon titles, and six Australian Open titles).

Federer has been in the top 2 at least once a year from 2003-2018 (age 21-36).

He is the only player in the trio to have successfully defended a U.S. Open title (he has done it four times. Djokovic and Nadal have never done it).

At Wimbledon and the Australian Open, Federer has at least 100 career wins. Neither Nadal or Djokovic have 100 wins at a slam.

Federer won 11 of the 16 majors contested from 2004 to 2007.

In 2009, Federer made all four slam finals, winning two and losing two (both in five sets, and both by 2-6 scores. He lost to Nadal at the Australian Open and lost to Juan Martin del Potro at the U.S. Open).

Federer has a men’s Open Era record of eight Wimbledon titles.

Federer has 103 career titles, more than Nadal (85) and Djokovic (79).

Federer defeated four top-10 players, including Nadal, to win the 2017 Australian Open.

Federer has won a men’s record of six ATP Finals, and missed out on the semifinals just once in 17 appearances.

He made seven consecutive Wimbledon finals from 2003-2009. No one else has been able to do this at any major since before 2000.

Novak Djokovic

He won four consecutive majors from Wimbledon in 2015 to the 2016 French Open. No man has accomplished this since Rod Laver.

Djokovic has completed the Career Grand Slam, winning each of the four majors.

He leads both rivalries with the other Big Three members: 26-22 against Federer and 29-26 against Nadal.

Since after the 2009 Mutua Madrid Open, Djokovic is 25-12 against Nadal and 23-15 against Federer, for a combined record of 48-27.

Djokovic has beaten Federer in majors 11 times, more than any other player (for reference: Nadal has 10 wins against Federer in slams).

Djokovic won 7 of the 10 Australian Open tournaments played from 2011-2020.

From 2014 to 2019, Djokovic won four of six Wimbledon tournaments.

Djokovic won 30 straight matches in majors from Wimbledon 2015 to Wimbledon 2016 (more than Federer, Nadal, and any man in the Open Era have ever accumulated)

Djokovic won 6 Masters 1000 titles in 2015, the only man to do so in the Open Era.

Djokovic recorded 31 wins over top-10 players in 2015, a season widely accepted as the best and most decorated by a man in the Open Era

Djokovic has saved match points against Federer on his way to winning the contest in majors three times (the 2010 and 2011 U.S. Open semifinals, and the 2019 Wimbledon final).

He has beaten a fellow Big Three member on the way to winning 13 of his 17 majors.

Djokovic has the highest Elo ranking, meaning he’s faced the toughest competition in his career.

Against the top 10, Djokovic has won 68% of his matches compared to Federer’s 64% and Nadal’s 65%.

Djokovic has made at least four finals at each major.

In 2011, Djokovic began the year with 43 consecutive wins.

Djokovic beat Nadal in all six of their meetings (each match was in the final of a tournament) in 2011, defeating the Spaniard to win Indian Wells, the Miami Open, the Madrid Open, Rome, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. His dominance of Nadal in 2011 spanned over all three surfaces.

Djokovic owns all nine masters 1000 titles; neither Federer nor Nadal have the full set.

Out of four meetings with Federer at the Swiss’s best major, Wimbledon, Djokovic has won three and lost one (the only non-final out of the four).

From 2012 to 2015, Djokovic won the ATP Finals four times in a row.

Djokovic is one of just two men to have beaten Nadal at the French Open, winning 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 in the 2015 quarterfinals.

Djokovic is the only man to have beaten both Federer and Nadal at all four majors.

Holes in the Résumés

While the careers of the Big Three have been, in a word, astounding, their résumés do have holes, miniscule as they may be. This section analyzes the weakest parts of each player’s career: tournaments they’ve never won, ranking dips, losing streaks against each other and other players, missed opportunities, weak competition faced at times, and more.

Roger Federer

Federer, across five French Open finals, has won once and lost four times (all losses to Nadal).

He has lost out on match point opportunities in majors five times in majors. Three losses were to Djokovic, with a combined six match points lost (four on serve and two against serve).

Federer at one point trailed Nadal 23-10 in their head-to-head rivalry.

He has beaten Nadal or Djokovic on the way to winning just seven of his 20 majors.

Federer has a losing record in finals on clay.

In majors against Nadal and Djokovic, his record stands at 10-21. Both of the others have won over half of their Big Three major encounters.

Federer has failed to convert an optimal percentage of break points in several important matches. Notable examples include his 2007 French Open final (a four-set loss to Nadal in which 1/17 break points were taken), the 2015 U.S. Open final (a four-set loss to Djokovic in which he converted 4/23 break points), and more recently his Round of 16 loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, where Federer produced 12 break points and was unable to break a single time.

Despite having won as many sets as Djokovic in their rivalry, Federer trails 23-27.

Federer, after winning the U.S. Open for a fifth straight time in 2008, has never won it since.

While Nadal and Djokovic are both undefeated in semifinals and finals at their best majors (Nadal is 12-0 at both stages in Paris; Djokovic is 8-0 at both stages in Melbourne), Federer has lost four times in Wimbledon finals (three to Djokovic, one to Nadal), and once in the semifinals.

Federer has never beaten Nadal at the French Open in six attempts.

Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a major since Wimbledon in 2012 (they have played six times in slams since then).

He has lost in majors twice from both two sets up and match point up (one of the losses was to Djokovic).

Federer has never beaten Nadal on the way to winning the French Open. He has played Nadal in four finals and two semifinals there.

Federer has never won Rome or Monte-Carlo, one of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments (he won Hamburg, a clay tournament that no longer exists, four times, and the former Madrid tournament on indoor hard once). Still, the gaps in his Masters 1000 collection indicate an overall lower level on clay than Djokovic (along with the Serb’s greater success against Nadal at the French Open).

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is 3-5 in U.S. Open finals, which is on hard court (his best surface).

He is 1-4 in French Open finals.

Unlike Federer and Nadal, Djokovic has never won a major without dropping a set.

Djokovic dropped to 22nd in the world in 2018 after injuries in 2017 and the beginning of 2018 as well as dips in form.

From the 2012 French Open to the 2014 French Open, Djokovic made six major finals and lost five of them (the sole win was at the 2013 Australian Open).

Djokovic does not have an Olympic gold medal in singles (2008: lost to Nadal in the semifinals).

He has lost six times to Nadal at the French Open, and failed to win the tournament the one year he did manage to beat the Spaniard.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has lost 19 sets in a row to Djokovic on hard court.

Nadal has never won the ATP Finals, the year-end 1500-point tournament that the year’s top eight players qualify for, despite qualifying every year since 2005.

In five appearances in the final of the Miami Open, Nadal is winless (in 2005, he fell to Federer after leading by two sets and a break when the format was best-of-five. He lost to Djokovic in 2011 and 2014 and to Federer in 2017).

He has never won the Rolex Paris Masters, another Masters 1000 tournament, or Shanghai, a third Masters 1000.

Nadal hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2009 and won his last Wimbledon title in 2010.

From 2012 to 2015, Nadal recorded four early-round losses at Wimbledon to players outside the top 100 (Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis, Nick Kyrgios, and Dustin Brown).

Nadal has lost six of his last seven matches against Federer.

Nadal has lost both of his matches against Djokovic at the Australian Open.

He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals (two losses to Djokovic and one to Federer), losing from a break up in the fifth set to Djokovic in 2012 and to Federer in 2017.

Miscellaneous Observations

Federer won four majors before playing Nadal in a major for the first time, and won nine before facing Djokovic at a slam. He led his rivalry with Djokovic early on, and now trails 27-23. Some believe that this is because Federer’s age has begun to play a factor, and this may be true, but any disadvantage that his age presents now is balanced by his privilege of playing for several years before meeting Nadal or Djokovic at a slam.

Federer is 20-11 in major finals (10 of the 11 losses are to Nadal or Djokovic), Nadal is 19-8 in major finals (seven of the eight losses are to Federer or Djokovic), and Djokovic is 17-9 in major finals (five of the nine losses are to Federer or Nadal).

Nadal and Djokovic are cut from the same cloth, while Federer’s game is extremely different from his rivals’. The Swiss’s style is aggressive, based around his serve and first strike. He comes to net more than the other two. Djokovic and Nadal are baseliners. They are probably the two hardest men to hit through, such is the strength of their defense. Their serves aren’t prolific in producing aces (Nadal’s is less so than Djokovic’s), and when it comes to long points, they will dominate. They are both exceptional under pressure, and have both beaten Federer in big matches by winning the most important points, if not the most points overall. It’s an interesting way to look at tennis history; Federer ruled with a brand of attacking tennis for a while, then was displaced by a pair of grinders with amazing groundstrokes and no obvious weaknesses to attack in their games (Federer’s would be his one-handed backhand) who seem not to feel pressure much of the time.

Nadal has the best rate of victory in slam finals (70.4%), Djokovic is second at 68% even, and Federer has the worst winning percentage in major finals (64.5%).

Against Andy Murray, the fourth-best player of the generation, Djokovic is 25-11, Nadal is 17-7, and Federer is 14-11.

Djokovic has played, and won, many important matches with the crowd almost fully against him. Some notable examples are the 2019 Wimbledon final and the 2015 U.S. Open final.

The Case for Djokovic (based on his career so far)

Djokovic has won 15 slams in the last decade, more than any other man. He came to power when Federer and Nadal were dominating tennis, and rebounded from huge deficits in each rivalry. He’s beaten Federer at Wimbledon three times, all in finals, and out-grinded Nadal in a five-hour, 53-minute slugfest at the Australian Open, showing he can match and exceed his biggest rivals in brutal matches. He’s only lost one five-setter to Nadal, and none to Federer, while beating them in a combined six. In the clutch, he’s gotten the better of Federer time and again; he’s saved match points against one of the best ever in the biggest matches multiple times.

His return is the best in history, as is his backhand, and his game is the most well-balanced of the three, reflected by his Golden Masters accomplishment. At all four majors, he’s gotten the best of Federer and Nadal. He’s arguably the best hard court player of all time and if he wins a couple more Wimbledon titles, has a solid claim to being the best-ever grass courter as well. And he’s not too shabby on clay; he’s one of just two men to beat Nadal at the French Open and has beaten Nadal on the dirt seven times, more than anyone else. Djokovic has almost as many weeks at #1 as Federer and looks to be in a good position to catch him once the tour resumes. Finally, he won four majors in a row from the 2015 Wimbledon to the 2016 French Open, which hasn’t been done since Rod Laver won the calendar slam in 1969. Since 2011, he’s simply been better than both Federer and Nadal in most of their meetings.

The Case Against Djokovic

He doesn’t lead any of the most important stats — majors, weeks at #1, Masters 1000 titles, or overall tournaments. He trails Nadal and Federer in majors, and lacks an Olympic gold medal. He’s lost nine of his fifteen matches in majors against Nadal. He’s lost five major finals to Wawrinka or Murray, and has a poor conversion rate in U.S. Open finals (3-5), a tournament on his best surface. Federer has as many majors on hard court/clay and three more on grass, while Nadal is stronger at the French Open than he is at the Australian.

The Case for Federer (based on his career so far)

Federer has 20 majors, 310 weeks in the top spot of the rankings, and has won 103 tournaments. All three of these stats are records among the Big Three, and the major tally and weeks at number one are all-time men’s records. He’s the most decorated men’s player in history, and therefore the best. At his peak, he was better than Djokovic in their rivalry. He transcended age to win the Australian Open in 2017, beating four top-10 players including the man who’s inflicted heartbreak upon heartbreak on him, Nadal. He’s beaten Djokovic at all four majors. He dominated the tour for a solid four and a half years, beating old legends like Andre Agassi as well as the young stars of his generation. Even after his most successful years, he was able to beat Djokovic at the French Open in 2011 and at Wimbledon in 2012. Murray’s only beaten him once in a major.

His serve is one of the best among the non-giants of the tour; he gives away nothing about the location. It’s precise and packs a decent punch. Some consider his forehand to be the best ever, and even the best shot ever, and while that’s debatable, it’s an incredibly powerful and reliable shot at its best. His volleys are smooth and his overhead backhand draws gasps whenever he hits it.

He’s won five or more titles at Wimbledon, the Australian Open, and the U.S. Open, as well as a title in Paris and four runner-up plates. His name is at the top of most of the leaderboards.

The Case Against Federer

For much of his career, he hasn’t been as good as his two main rivals. He’s won less than a third of his most important matches against them (10/31), and they’ve both beaten him at Wimbledon, his best slam. Meanwhile, he’s beaten Djokovic at the Australian Open, but that was before the Serb won his first title there, and he’s not been close to defeating Nadal in Paris. While Nadal and Djokovic won 13 and 15 majors, respectively, in the 2010s, Federer won just five, despite beginning the decade as the world No. 1.

He’s the worst under pressure out of the three, as reflected in the 2007 French Open final (1/17 on break points against Nadal) and the 2015 U.S. Open (4/23 on break points against Djokovic). In the 2006 Rome final, his best chance at beating Nadal in a best-of-five match on clay (which he’s never done), he made two unforced errors on his only two match points. He’s missed out on six match points in majors against Djokovic, two of which were championship points at Wimbledon. Nadal and Djokovic are better at taking their chances.

Federer has played for years longer than Nadal and Djokovic, and still trails them in Masters 1000 titles by a considerable distance (he has 28, Djokovic has 34, and Nadal has a men’s record of 35. He’s never won Monte-Carlo or Rome, leaving a significant gap in his clay-court accomplishments.

His success at majors came to a grinding halt as Nadal and Djokovic reached their primes, suggesting that the other two are better players. He won many of his majors without having to contend with either of them, instead feasting on Lleyton Hewitt, a post-prime Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick, and Mark Philippoussis. Nadal and Djokovic had to battle each other, Federer, and the stronger players of the more recent generation to win their majors (such as Murray and Wawrinka), so their slams carry more historical weight. Federer was the third-best player of the highest-level era in modern men’s tennis.

The Case for Nadal (based on his career so far)

Nadal’s the greatest clay court player ever; that’s essentially impossible to contradict. Beating Nadal on clay is the toughest task in men’s tennis, because Nadal at his best on clay is the highest level in men’s tennis.

He beat Federer at Wimbledon in 2008, when the Swiss was still in his prime (and, by his own admission, recovered from the bout of mono he suffered that year). He’s beaten Djokovic at the U.S. Open twice, and won more Flushing Meadows titles than the man many consider to be the greatest hard court player ever. His non-clay accomplishments alone rival the careers of John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors. Is Nadal an all-court player? You bet.

In majors, he is 19-10 against Federer and Djokovic; he’s won a convincing majority of his most important matches with his biggest rivals. And while 12 of his wins come at the French Open, he is 4-4 against Federer at non-clay majors and 3-5 against Djokovic at non-clay majors, by far a better winning percentage than his opponents’ records against him at the French Open (Federer is 0-6, Djokovic is 1-6). He is more dominant on clay than Federer or Djokovic are on grass and hard, respectively, and he’s more accomplished on grass and hard than his rivals are on clay.

Nadal comfortably leads his head-to-head with Federer, even with the Swiss’s revamped backhand helping him win six of the last seven matches. He’s beaten Federer in three of their four hard court major matches, and didn’t lose to him at a hard court major until the 2017 Australian Open final. He might be leading his head-to-head with Djokovic as well had the pair not faced off seven times during Nadal’s biggest dip in form (2015-2016) — for reference, there were only two Djokovic-Nadal matches from 2017-June 2018, Djokovic’s worst period.

Nadal is the only one of the three to have an Olympic gold medal in singles, and he has five Davis Cup titles compared to one each for Djokovic and Federer.

The Case against Nadal

Nadal has never won the year-end ATP Finals tournament, which counts for 1500 points. Djokovic and Federer have each won it five times. He trails Djokovic 20-7 on hard courts and has lost 19 sets in a row to the Serb on cement.

Nadal has by far the fewest weeks at number one out of the three.

Out of the trio, he’s the third-best player on hard courts and grass. He is 1-4 in Australian Open finals, and has never won the Paris Masters or the Miami Open, two of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments. He also hasn’t won the Shanghai Masters (though he won indoor Madrid, the tournament that Shanghai replaced). Djokovic leads their head-to-head 29-26, and as of late Nadal has had difficulty beating both his main rivals. He hasn’t gotten the best of Federer on hard court since the 2014 Australian Open, and not since the 2013 U.S. Open has he tasted victory over Djokovic on cement, and his last grass court wins over Federer and Djokovic came in 2008.

A Note on Why the Clay Specialist Argument Makes No Sense

The “Nadal is just a clay court specialist” argument falls apart as Nadal’s success on other surfaces, including both his rivals in their primes, is revealed. He has won as many majors on grass as Federer and Djokovic have won on clay, combined. He is the only player among the Big Three to have won at least two majors on each surface, and is more surface-balanced than Djokovic and Federer in that respect.

Sergi Bruguera, who won the French Open in 1993 and 1994 and no majors off the Paris dirt, is arguably a clay specialist. Nadal is not; he has won seven majors off of clay alone.

Some say “if you take away everyone’s most successful slam, Nadal has the fewest majors”, but all that proves is that Nadal is better at the French Open than Federer at Wimbledon and Djokovic at the Australian Open. In no way should this count against Nadal in the G.O.A.T. debate.

Djokovic has won 11 of his 17 majors on hard court (64.7%), a greater majority than Nadal’s 12 clay court majors against his 19 total (63.2%). This can be defended by saying there are two hard court majors each year and a singular slam on clay, but this opens up the argument that “if there were a second major on clay, Nadal could very well have another 12 majors”. The point is that wins on hard are not more valuable or important than wins on clay. The “specialist” argument can be used against any player who’s inevitably won a majority of their majors on a single surface. Each surface counts the same, and it is pointless to raise the “if you were to take away a surface…” narrative.

So if it seems that this article is missing a section that uses the “clay specialist” argument against Nadal, this is why I did not include it. Some arguments do not have merit and as such, I have not written about them here.

A Brief Segment on Popularity

Federer and Nadal are simply more popular than Djokovic. They get more crowd support than the Serb, and have more fans worldwide. I suspect that this is because they started winning first, so the world grew a bit accustomed to seeing them dominate before Djokovic began to ascend to their status, beating them both many times along the way. His lack of popularity compared to the others may also have to do with his on-court demeanor. He smashes rackets on occasion, while Nadal has never done so and Federer hasn’t since 2009 (he was losing to Djokovic at the time). I don’t place any emphasis on popularity when it comes to the G.O.A.T. debate, and I don’t think it makes Djokovic any less of a great player.

What Conclusions Can Be Drawn?

In this section, I’m going to do my best to provide some predictions and concrete statements about the strength of the careers of the Big Three. When I read an article about the G.O.A.T. debate, I always want to see an opinion at the end saying something more than “their claims are equally good”. I do think it’s far too early to definitively say who the greatest of all time is, but I will give some opinions that will hopefully satisfy some curiosity.

Although Federer leads in majors, overall tournaments, and weeks at #1, I think that the battle for the G.O.A.T. title will come down to Nadal and Djokovic. Federer, bluntly put, is not as reliable in big moments of matches, against his rivals and against other players. He trails in both rivalries, and has lost over two-thirds of his matches in majors when playing Nadal and Djokovic. Because of this, I think that if they can equal his 20 majors, their superior big-match playing, Masters 1000 tally, and their more complete domination of their most successful major will overpower Federer’s claim.

It’s a very tough call between Nadal and Djokovic for who I think will eventually be considered the best men’s tennis player ever. The former will likely win additional Roland-Garros titles, the latter will probably win more Australian Open titles. Nadal leads in majors, Masters 1000s, the head-to-head in majors, and overall tournaments won (as well as having an Olympic gold medal), so I believe that as it stands today, his résumé is slightly better than Djokovic and his four consecutive majors won, overall head-to-head lead, amazing streak on hard courts, and status as the best player of the 2010s decade. But Nadal is farther past his prime than Djokovic is, and the Serb has won five of the last seven majors. There’s every chance that Djokovic will exceed Nadal’s major and Masters 1000 tally.

If he does so, his lead in the head-to-head and his other accomplishments could well lift him to the status of G.O.A.T.

One of the most difficult things about this debate is measuring the accomplishments of each player. As I said above, I think Federer’s résumé will be the weakest if his major tally is tied or exceeded, but this is subjective. Others may consider weeks at number one to be the most important stat, or perhaps overall tournaments won.

By the same token, it’s very hard to determine how much of a lead one player will need on another to be considered better. In the case of Federer, I think once his 20 majors are equaled, his claim is worse than that of the player who matched him (Nadal or Djokovic).

Nadal and Djokovic are, if possible, an even trickier case. When does Djokovic’s big lead in weeks at #1 come into play? Is it worth one major, two majors? Less than one? What about Nadal’s Olympic gold medal? Another reason this debate is so tough to project is that there’s the possibility that Djokovic could win gold in the future, or that Federer could win more majors, pushing his total out of reach (I do think the former possibility is more likely).

Here’s the most definitive statement I can make regarding Nadal and Djokovic: I think that if Djokovic can surpass Nadal’s haul of majors, his career will be slightly more impressive as a whole. And vice-versa, if Nadal ends with more majors I believe his career will be the best ever by a man. Their non-major stats and achievements (Masters 1000s, head-to-head leads, surface domination, etc.) are extremely close in weight. My opinion is that if they tie or exceed Federer’s 20 majors, they deserve to be considered better players.

Of course, this hypothetical as well as the one at the start of this section is next to useless, as it assumes that the only thing that will change between now and the end of the careers of the Big Three is the major tally.

But I’m trying to analyze their careers right now, and here’s what I think: majors are the most important part of the debate. This is what’s keeping Federer in the conversation. But since Nadal and Djokovic’s claims are likely as good at the moment, it won’t be much of a contest if either or both of them reach 20 majors. Djokovic and Nadal’s more impressive competition faced, domination of a single major, etc. put them on virtually equal footing with Federer, so with regards to the race for G.O.A.T., Federer has a mountain to climb.

He needs to hold on to his lead in majors to maintain a claim to be the G.O.A.T., and Nadal is one away from tying him. Djokovic is three behind, but has been the most dominant player of the past decade and has won large groups of majors in very short periods of time, as he did when completing his “Nole Slam” and when regaining supremacy in men’s tennis at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019.

I think Federer will eventually be considered the third-best player of the trio when these three great players have all retired. I believe that he has a viable claim to G.O.A.T. as it stands today, but he won’t in the future if his 20 majors are matched.

On the other hand, I think that Nadal and Djokovic will always have a strong claim, barring a large deficit in majors upon the end of their careers. For example, if the gap between them is two or less, the player with fewer majors will still have a claim, though it will be weaker.

As for a prediction between Nadal and Djokovic for who will end up as the G.O.A.T., I’m afraid I’ll have to leave it open-ended. Djokovic looks the more likely to win majors currently, but Nadal is always a (the) favorite at the French Open and has won two of the last three U.S. Open tournaments as well. And the younger players on the circuit, the NextGen, are improving constantly and may prevent the older stars from adding much more to their résumés, in which case Federer could hold on to his record of 20 majors.

There’s no doubt that this G.O.A.T. debate is among the most interesting and complex conversations ever to grace the tennis community. Fans of all three players display impressive passion, and each group has suffered heartbreak as their favorite player has fallen to one of the other two or another ATP player. Tennis is mentally taxing, not just as a player, but as a fan, and the G.O.A.T. debate can be immensely frustrating if an argument isn’t going the way one wants, or if there’s a particularly fierce disagreement. The thought of one’s favorite player not going down as the G.O.A.T. is almost too much to bear.

But even if your man doesn’t win this incredible race, it doesn’t lessen the remarkable career they’ve had. If you are positive that your favorite won’t come out on top, there’s no need to be devastated. They’re still an all-time legend. Their best moments are immortalized in your memory and on YouTube.

Go back in time. Go back, and watch Nadal overcome the limits of physical exhaustion by winning a titanic Australian Open semifinal against Verdasco (one of the best hard court matches ever), then somehow recover for the anticipated final with Federer. Watch Djokovic edge Andy Murray in the Australian Open semifinal three years later, then outlast Nadal in a mind-bending five-hour, 53-minute final that left both players struggling not to cramp during the trophy ceremony. Relive Federer’s improbable victory at the Australian Open in 2017 where he beat four top-10 players, getting the best of Nadal in the final in perhaps his most emotional victory ever.

Watch Nadal beat Federer in what’s widely considered the best match of all time at Wimbledon in 2008. Check out Djokovic beating Nadal in a 2018 semifinal at the same tournament that’s possibly the best quality match since. See the Serb’s emotion as he wins the French Open for the first time here (his fourth major in a row!). Watch Federer feel the same joy here.

Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer have given tennis fans hours upon hours of breathtaking tennis. They’ve delivered shots that made our mouths fall open, and worked their way into such pressured positions that we felt like throwing up.

They haven’t just attracted fans with their dazzling tennis, but with their personalities and unique qualities. The elegance, awe-inspiring shot selection at times, and seeming effortlessness of Federer has helped earn him an enormous fan base, while many others are captivated by Djokovic and Nadal’s incredible endurance and more expressive on-court personalities. All three have brought myriad fans to the tennis community.

Despite the undeniable talent of the NextGen, it’s not close to what the Big Three have brought to tennis (at least not yet). The quality of what we’ve watched from these players and their rivalries with each other may never be seen again in men’s tennis. Nadal and Federer’s forehands as well as Djokovic’s backhand might not just be the best ever, but the best there will ever be.

So let’s enjoy them while they’re here. They’re still among the best in the world, but there’s no mistaking that their best days are behind them. Soon enough, they’ll take their leave from professional tennis and we’ll be left wondering how the golden days of the men’s game went by so quickly.

But it’s not over yet. When the tour starts up again, Djokovic will still be number one. Nadal will be number two. Federer, recovering from knee surgery, will be in the bottom half of the top ten, but eager to climb the ladder. All three will be fighting to contend for major titles. This story may be in its closing stages, but it’s not over yet.

Martina Navratilova said it best at the end of the Strokes of Genius documentary on the 2008 Wimbledon final:

“We’re so lucky.”

Thanks to everyone who had a hand in putting this article together. There are too many to name here, but dozens of people contributed stats on Twitter, and the help is hugely appreciated. As always, feedback is welcome; feel free to leave a comment or tweet @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!

Zverev Crushes Federer Comeback in Shanghai Quarterfinals, Records His Best Win of 2019

By Owen Lewis

It hasn’t been the best year for Alexander Zverev. He lost in the fourth round of the Australian Open to Milos Raonic, putting up shockingly little resistance: 6-1, 6-1, 7-6 (5). At the French Open, Zverev made the quarterfinals, but ran into world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. After failing to serve out the first set, Zverev won four games for the rest of the match as Djokovic sailed to victory. On the lawns at Wimbledon, he lost in the first round to Jiri Vesely, a qualifier, in four sets. And at the U.S. Open, Zverev, after playing attritional four and five set matches in the early rounds, lost in four to Diego Schwartzman in the fourth round.

That’s not a great year of results for the 22-year-old German, particularly not after winning the ATP finals in 2018 (he beat Federer and Djokovic back-to-back in the semifinals and finals). And his poor matches are at times baffling- at his best, Zverev has a huge serve, a solid forehand, a world-class backhand, and the ability to rally with the best players on the tour. But too often this year his serve has failed him, and he’s hit numerous double faults each match- sometimes 15 to 20.

This started to change during the Laver Cup. Zverev sealed the team-style tournament for Team Europe with a forehand passing shot against his nemesis from Down Under, Raonic. Since then, he’s been playing good tennis- in the recent Beijing tournament, he endured a tough loss against Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he looks to be well on the way to his best form now- if not already there.

Zverev begun his Shanghai Masters with wins over Jeremy Chardy and Andrey Rublev, then faced a quarterfinal clash with 20-time major champion Roger Federer. Zverev started strong, breaking Federer’s serve in the sixth game. At 30-all, the German hit a dart of a forehand return right into the corner, then quickly converted his opportunity when Federer’s forehand misfired. Zverev continued serving well, and hit some great passing shots, ripping some forehands and backhands past Federer at the net. The rest of the set went with serve and Zverev took it 6-3.

The second set was enormously dramatic. Federer held to open the set and then broke Zverev’s serve for the first time, controlling the court throughout a long rally and then winning the point with a drop shot. Zverev broke straight back, though, crashing a huge crosscourt backhand passing shot past Federer and then running down a drop volley and flicking it down the line for a winner. Some comfortable holds were exchanged following the breaks until Federer served at 5-all. Zverev clawed his way to a break point at 30-40, and after a long rally whipped a forehand pass down the line.

It appeared that Zverev was going to cruise to victory when he went up 40-love, but Federer somehow kept himself alive- the Swiss great hit a couple gorgeous volleys to save three match points and reach deuce. Zverev then pushed a backhand volley beyond the baseline, and Federer took the break point with some absurd shotmaking: he hit a perfectly placed, impeccably timed, backhand half-volley that Zverev had no hope of reaching. During the tiebreak, Federer saved two more match points and took it with an ace: 9-7.

After such a momentum shift, it seemed that Federer might romp through the third set, but Zverev was able to keep the missed chances from haunting him. He broke Federer at the first opportunity in the deciding set, then held for 3-0. His opponent showed his frustration by swatting a ball away and suffered the punishment in the form of a point penalty. Federer saved two break points when serving at 0-3, and another at 1-4, but couldn’t make a mark on Zverev’s serve, who hit 17 aces and just one double fault. The German served out the match to 15, and triumphantly declared that his time had come (possibly with an expletive thrown in).

Maybe Zverev’s time has come. He now has a 4-3 record against Federer, and owns two wins over Novak Djokovic, the world No. 1. While I’m on that topic, Zverev’s fellow “NextGener” and rival Tsitsipas took out Djokovic today, also in three sets: 3-6, 7-5, 6-3. The much-talked-about changing of the guard in men’s tennis seems to have been knocking on the door for ages, but the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal) are experts at ignoring the knocks and have been dominating tennis since 2004. But Zverev and Tsitsipas will only get better, and have 21 and 22-year-old legs to boot.

The one task that the young stars in the men’s game have been unable to achieve is breaking through at the Grand Slam level in best-three-out-of-five matches. This year, Djokovic and Nadal (32 and 33 years old, respectively) each won two slams. Tsitsipas managed to topple Federer in the 4th round Down Under, but was humbled by Nadal two rounds later: 6-2, 6-4, 6-0. Dominic Thiem (though he is 26, hardly a young star) won a brutal five setter against Djokovic at the French Open semifinals, but Nadal crushed his hopes in the final: 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1.

Even so, wins like today’s will only boost the younger players’ confidence. The 2020 Australian Open is in three months, and Zverev, Tsitsipas, and others will be eager to star growing legacies of their own. After today, Alexander “Sascha” Zverev is on the right track.

Assessing the Grand Slam Results in 2019

By Owen Lewis

    2019 was an exciting year of tennis that saw many epic matches and dramatic moments. Let’s take a look: 

Australian Open Winners: Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka

The first slam of the year offered up the same winners as the 2018 U.S. Open. Osaka impressively backed up her win in New York, winning her second slam, while Djokovic continued his dominance from the tail end of 2018. Osaka, seeded fourth, battled to the final, beating sixth seed Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals and seventh seed Karolina Pliskova in the semis. Pliskova had made a remarkable comeback against Serena Williams in the quarterfinals, erasing a 5-1 deficit in the third set and saving four match points. 

    Osaka faced off against Petra Kvitova, the eighth seed, in the final. She came out strong, winning a high-quality opening set in a tiebreak. In the second set, Osaka held three championship points with her opponent serving at 3-5 and 0-40 down. The drama heightened as Kvitova saved all three match points with nerveless tennis, including an inside-out forehand winner. Riding the momentum, Kvitova broke Osaka when she was serving for the match and ended up winning the set 7-5. After missing championship points, it seemed that Osaka might fold at the start of the deciding set, but she regrouped admirably and took the third set 6-4. Unlike the 2018 U.S. Open final, (when Osaka’s opponent, Serena Williams, had an argument with the chair umpire that robbed Osaka much of the joy of her victory), there was nothing to detract from the happiness of the moment. 

    The men’s final wasn’t nearly as competitive. The top two seeds, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, stormed through their respective draws. Djokovic dropped two sets, and Nadal didn’t lose one. Many expected a fierce battle akin to their 5 hour, 53 minute marathon in the 2012 Australian Open final (Djokovic won 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7 (5), 7-5), but Djokovic, in one of his best performances ever, crushed Nadal in straight sets. Nadal had just one break point (that he was unable to take, netting a routine backhand) in the 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 loss. Djokovic was imperious throughout the match, hitting cleanly and consistently from both wings and serving well. Nadal, on the other hand, was strangely unable to find the form that had carried him to the final. He didn’t win a point on the Djokovic serve until the ninth game of the match, and made many uncharacteristic errors. His opponent never looked back after breaking in Nadal’s first service game and claimed his 15th Grand Slam, moving up to 3rd on the all-time men’s list. 

French Open Winners: Ash Barty and Rafael Nadal

The women’s draw at this French Open fell apart almost immediately. Osaka lost in straight sets in the third round, as did second seed Pliskova. No top-five player made the semifinals, and the unseeded 19-year-old Marketa Vondrousova made the final. Barty, for her part, played a fantastic tournament, beating Vondrousova 6-1, 6-3 in the final. 

Nadal is, unquestionably, the greatest clay-court player ever, and had won 11 French Open titles even before the 2019 tournament. He has only lost twice at the event—in 2009 and 2015—and his dominance on clay is virtually unparalleled in sport. 2019 was no exception, and Nadal claimed his 12th title in Paris with a four-set win over Dominic Thiem in the final: 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. Djokovic, who was trying for his fourth straight slam title, lost to Thiem in the semifinals. Over two days, Thiem won 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in arguably the biggest win of his career. Unfortunately for him, a second tennis titan was waiting for him in the final. Nadal played brilliantly for the final two sets of the match and claimed his 18th Grand Slam title. 

Wimbledon Winners: Novak Djokovic and Simona Halep

    The two Wimbledon finals could not have been more different. In the women’s final, Simona Halep played the match of her life. She was a clear underdog against six-time champion Serena Williams, but won 6-2, 6-2 in an absolutely flawless performance. Halep hit just three unforced errors across the match, and even Williams (regarded as the best female player ever) was helpless against the onslaught. Halep, previously seen as a hard/clay court specialist who would be less competitive on grass, dispelled this notion thoroughly in the 56 minutes it took to beat Williams. 

    In comparison, the men’s final between Djokovic and Roger Federer lasted 4 hours and 57 minutes- the longest Wimbledon final ever. The newly instituted 12-all deciding set tiebreak came into play for the first time (previously, the deciding set at Wimbledon extended until a player led by two games. This once extended to 70-68 in the fifth set of a first-round match between Nicolas Mahut and John Isner) at the end of Djokovic’s 7-6 (5), 1-6, 7-6 (4), 4-6, 13-12 (3) victory. Djokovic was a clear favorite, and took the first set in a tiebreak. Federer had many chances to take the set, though- seven times, he was two points away from winning the set, but lost the point each time. His best chance came at 5-3 up in the tiebreak. Federer virtually handed Djokovic the set with back-to-back-to-back forehand misses followed by a backhand error. Djokovic played an oddly flat second set, and Federer took full advantage, taking the set comfortably by a score of 6-1. 

    Djokovic regrouped well in the third set, staving off a set point at 4-5 with a great serve. He opened up a 5-1 lead in the tiebreak despite it seeming that the set had been under Federer’s control for most of the time. Djokovic took the tiebreak 7-4, earning a two-sets-to-one lead. Remarkably, he hadn’t had a break point in the entire match, yet led comfortably because he played better tiebreaks. 

    Federer didn’t fold in the fourth set, breaking his opponent twice and winning the set 6-4, sealing it with a swing volley winner. The fifth set was the most enthralling, bizarre, and entertaining set of the match. Djokovic got the first break, going up 4-2, and it appeared that he would run away with the set, but Federer broke back immediately and held serve for 4-4. Djokovic was two points away from the title with Federer serving at 4-5 and 5-6, but his 38-year-old opponent held him off. With Djokovic serving at 7-7, a Federer forehand winner and two unforced errors from the racket of Djokovic brought up a break point, which Federer took with a forehand passing shot. 

    Serving for his 21st Grand Slam title, Federer missed a forehand, but Djokovic returned the favor to make it 15-all. Federer then slammed a 125 mph ace down the tee to move within two points of the trophy. His next serve was another ace, this one 120 mph and perfectly placed. At 40-15, Djokovic hit a deep return off a second serve, and Federer sent a forehand wide. At 40-30, the second match point, Federer approached the net and Djokovic rolled a classic crosscourt forehand past him. At deuce, Federer netted a weak forehand. On break point, he did the same. Just like that, it was 8-8, and the championship points were gone. At 11-11, Djokovic saved two break points to hold serve for the last time. Federer held to love with an ace to push the match into a deciding tiebreak. 

    It was fairly anticlimactic. Djokovic went ahead 4-1 early on and sealed the match with a 7-3 win in the breaker. It was his 16th slam, and he further decreased Federer’s lead on him in the all-time men’s rankings. 

U.S. Open Winners: Bianca Andreescu and Rafael Nadal

    Bianca Andreescu is a fantastic player. As a 19-year-old, she won Indian Wells, one of the biggest non-major tournaments, earlier this year before injuries felled her for a few months. She hasn’t lost a match outright (not because of injury) since early March. She even remarked recently that she’s kind of forgotten the feeling of losing. At the U.S. Open, Andreescu played brilliantly. She was pushed to a third set several times, but always held her nerve. Her opponent in the final?  Serena Williams. Williams was the pre-match favorite, but Andreescu took the first set comfortably and went up 5-1 in the second. She had a match point when serving at 5-1, but Williams showed exceptional grit to claw back to 5-5. Many felt that a miracle Serena comeback was on the cards, but Andreescu stopped the rot and held for 6-5. With Williams serving to stay in the championship, her opponent earned a championship point at 30-40, and took the opportunity with an inside-in forehand return winner. There will surely be more majors for the young star. She may even be ranked #1 by the end of the season. 

    Roger Federer and his ailing back lost in the quarterfinals to Grigor Dimitrov, and Stan Wawrinka’s one-handed backhand sent Djokovic and his injured shoulder out of the tournament in the fourth round. Nadal’s draw was left relatively open, and his opponent in the final was Daniil Medvedev, a 23-year-old Russian who had dominated the North American hard court swing. Medvedev was visibly tired in his earlier matches, and he was the heavy underdog against Nadal, one of the all time greats. 

    It looked like Nadal was on course for an easy win when he won the first two sets and went up a break in the third. But Medvedev was given a lifeline when Nadal missed an easy overhead volley at 3-2 up and deuce in the third set, and the Russian broke back. He later played an exceptional return game with Nadal serving at 5-6, and took the set with an inside-out backhand winner. In the fourth set, Medvedev pounced with Nadal serving to stay in the fourth set at 4-5, and tied the match with a majestic backhand return winner struck from way outside the court. Suddenly it seemed that a huge upset could be afoot. With all the momentum behind Medvedev, Nadal had to save a couple crucial break points early in the set with some strong attacking tennis. In the fifth game, Nadal broke after a long rally, then broke again for 5-2. Medvedev, however, refused to lie down and clawed back to 5-4, saving two championship points along the way. He managed to force a break point with Nadal trying to serve out the match for a second time, but it was saved with a vicious inside-out forehand. Nadal reached championship point with a drop shot winner and took his chance with a 124 mph serve down the middle. Nadal had managed to hang on, but Medvedev pushed him to the brink and will surely be in contention for some big titles next year. 

Assessments

    Women’s tennis is wide open. We had four different slam winners this year, and any player can upset another at any time, as demonstrated by many top players’ early losses in slams this year. However, Andreescu has been playing incredibly well, and assuming she continues her fine form, I predict she will win two slams next year. I don’t think Serena will win another slam. She made two finals this year, losing in straight sets both times. She can still compete at a high level, but when she comes up against a quality opponent in a final she’s been unable to produce her best tennis. It may well be a mental block, and at 38 years old, time isn’t on the 23-time slam champion’s side. That said, it will be a surprise to few if she manages to win another slam or more. 

    On the men’s side, the struggle between the Big Three (Federer, Djokovic, Nadal) continues. Federer has the most slams (20), but he is 38 years old and I think that this year’s Wimbledon final may serve as a huge mental barrier in the way of winning future slams. Federer’s chances of winning the French Open (if he decides to play) are very low- Nadal, Thiem, and Djokovic would all be heavily favored in a match against Federer. Djokovic will be a solid favorite at the Australian Open next year, as a seven-time champion. Federer’s best chance will be at Wimbledon. Again, I won’t be surprised if he wins another slam, but I don’t expect him to. Next year, I think three out of the four slams will be won by Djokovic and Nadal, and the fourth will go to a younger player like Medvedev.

Wimbledon 2019: Week One Assessments

By Owen Lewis

It’s the break between weeks 1 and 2 of Wimbledon, with “Manic Monday” coming up tomorrow. The second week is sure to bring more action to what has already been an incredibly compelling tournament. Andy Murray and Serena Williams teamed up in a dream mixed doubles partnership, 15-year-old Coco Gauff made a fairytale run to the fourth round, and Rafael Nadal produced an extremely entertaining win over the enigmatic Nick Kyrgios. Let’s look at the top players’ performances so far, as well as some of the best stories and a few of my predictions.

The Big Three

The trio of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have dominated men’s tennis for what seems an age, starting with Federer’s ascent in 2003. Each of the last 10 major tournaments has been won by one of these giants, and it would be a big surprise if things went differently this week.

-Federer dropped the first set of his opening-round match to Lloyd Harris, but only lost five games for the rest of the contest. He then earned straight-set wins over Jay Clarke and Lucas Pouille in the second and third rounds, respectively. Still, he’s averaging just over eight aces a match (a bit low for him), and hasn’t really played at his imperious best yet. With an upcoming fourth-rounder against Matteo Berrettini, who has made waves on grass this year with an 11-1 record, Federer will likely have to step up his game to continue his smooth progress. Grade: B+

-Nadal, coming off a 12th French Open victory in Paris last month, has been impressive in his first few matches. Grass is the world No. 2’s least favorite surface, but he broke a string of less-than-impressive results at Wimbledon by making the semifinal last year, and looks to build on that result in 2019. His pre-tournament draw, however, was intimidating (it’s slackened considerably thanks to several upsets). After cruising in his opening match, Nadal clashed with Nick Kyrgios, the talented but self-destructive Aussie, in a second round blockbuster. Kyrgios lacks consistently strong results, but has wins over each member of the Big Three, including a four-set win over Nadal at the 2014 Wimbledon. The first two sets were split, and the next two went to tiebreaks. Though Nadal had never beaten Kyrgios in a tiebreak, he impressively took both “breakers”, grinding out a tough four-set win: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (3).

In the third round, Nadal crushed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a former Wimbledon semifinalist, for the loss of only seven games. He lost just 10 points on serve through the whole match and never faced a break point in the process. He’s averaged 11 aces a match, which is an unusually high tally for the Spanish lefty. At one point when Nadal was ranked No. 1 during the 2018 season, he averaged fewer aces per match than 98 out of the top 100 players. Nadal isn’t known for his serve, but seems to have adjusted well to the clay-grass surface change- at Wimbledon, he often flattens out his serve, increasing the pace.

Nadal has a seemingly straightforward fourth-rounder against Joao Sousa of Portugal, and won’t face a seeded player until the semifinals, where he could play Roger Federer. With the grass playing slower this year, Nadal will feel more comfortable- if he can stay efficient during the next couple rounds, he will be deadly at the business end of the tournament. Grade: A

-Djokovic was, unquestionably, the pre-tournament favorite. He’s the current world No. 1 and the winner of three out of the last four slams. Few have lowered his status as the favorite- upsets of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have made his draw significantly easier. With Federer and Nadal on the other side of the draw, he has the least difficult path to the final.

Djokovic won a potentially tricky opening-rounder against Philipp Kohlschreiber, then rolled American Denis Kudla in round two. His next match was significantly more tricky, though. Djokovic had to battle in order to advance, coming through a tough four-setter against Herbert Hurkacz. After a close first set, Hurkacz hit some incredible shots on his way to winning the second-set tiebreak. His level dipped after the set, and Djokovic lost just five games during the last two sets. Still, he didn’t play as well as in either of his first two matches, missing first serves at crucial moments and hitting more double faults than he did in his first two matches combined.

Despite a slight dip in form during his third-rounder, Djokovic is still the favorite with most. It will be a huge surprise if he doesn’t make the final at the least. Grade: A-

The NextGen

Although the Big Three are an extremely rare talent, the young’uns of tennis have struggled to dethrone the 30+ year-olds. The only one to have made the final of a major so far is Dominic Thiem, who lost in the first round at Wimbledon this year. Many believe that their poor results are because their generation is a weak one, while others state that the Big Three are just that good. Either way, the young stars again failed to impress at Wimbledon.

-Stefanos Tsitsipas made the semifinals at the Australian Open, beating Federer along the way. At the French Open, he made the fourth round before losing an absolute nail-biter to Stan Wawrinka. But at Wimbledon, the 7th seed lost in the first round to unseeded Thomas Fabbiano. At least he saved a couple match points in the fourst set before falling 6-3 in the fifth. Grade: D

-Alexander Zverev has had success at every level except the majors, and has suffered a vicious dip in form after his ATP Finals victory at the end of 2018. He went 1/7 in break points during his first-rounder against the unseeded Jiri Vesely, losing in four sets. Grade: F

-Dominic Thiem had beaten Djokovic in the semis of the French Open in an impressive five-setter before losing to Nadal in the final. At Wimbledon, however, he lost in four sets to the…you guessed it…unseeded Sam Querrey. He lost the fourth set 6-0, winning just five points along the way. Grade: F-

-Felix Auger-Aliassime, an 18-year-old from Canada, was the fifth favorite with some odds-makers despite never having won a grand slam match. Still, many expected him to make a splash at Wimbledon, backing up his encouraging results on the grass courts of Queen’s Club and Stuttgart. The Canadian was slated to play Djokovic in the fourth round, but after two four-set wins, he put up disappointingly little resistance against Ugo Humbert in the third round. After losing the first set, FAA wasted a 5-2 lead in the second set, then folded almost immediately in the third. Grade: C

-Nick Kyrgios, though he didn’t make it past the second round, did play well against Nadal. Still, his shockingly blunt responses in press alienated any fans he may have earned during his time at Wimbledon. Grade: D

Coco Gauff

-Coco Gauff has been the story of the tournament so far. At fifteen years old, she beat her idol Venus Williams in the first round, then won her next match in straight sets. In the third round against Polona Hercog, Gauff was down a set and 5-2, serving at match point down. She played a nerveless point, hitting a backhand slice winner that landed plum on the sideline. Gauff broke Hercog in the next game, saving another match point along the way, and went on to seal a remarkable victory 3-6, 7-6 (7), 7-5.

Gauff’s next opponent is Simona Halep, last year’s French Open champion and former world No. 1 (it’s not on Center Court for some reason). She is by no means the favorite, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she won, either. With the women’s game as competitive as it is, Gauff has a great opportunity to extend her remarkable run even further. The world will be watching. Grade: A+

Others

-Serena Williams, now 37 years old, hasn’t won a slam in two and a half years. She lost weakly in the third round of the French Open, and hasn’t played a warmup event prior to Wimbledon. And yet some still pick her to win. Serena is unquestionably the GOAT on the women’s side, and still has the game to be at the top. She had a scare in her second-round match, winning 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, but she has a very winnable fourth-rounder against Carla Suarez Navarro. If Serena can avoid a mid-tournament hiccup and maintain her focus, she’ll be a nightmare for anyone to play. Side note: she’s playing mixed with Andy Murray, which may or may not take a toll on her singles level. Grade: B

-Ash Barty is in red-hot form right now. Recently crowned world No. 1, French Open champion, few would be surprised to see her lift the trophy in London. So far, she’s been terrorizing her opponents, not coming close to dropping a set. In my opinion, Barty is definitely the one to beat, and the favorite to take the women’s title. Grade: A

-Kei Nishikori has made the second week of a slam once again, and has yet to drop a set. But he has so many factors working against him. He’s not as durable as many other players, and a common theme is him being pushed too hard by a player he should beat easily, then getting emasculated by Nadal or Djokovic (or retiring injured). He has a winnable fourth-round match against Mikhail Kukushkin, but will likely play Federer after that. To top it off, grass is his worst surface, and he lacks the big serve/forehand to win points efficiently. I think his chances of winning are as low as anyone’s at this point. Even so, he should be fresh so far, due in part to his fairly easy draw of unseeded players- don’t be surprised if he makes the quarterfinals, but I’m reasonably confident that’s as far as he’ll go. Grade: A (based on play so far)

SerAndy

Andy Murray is back! No, not in singles, but he’s on court and that’s a great start. Murray entered in both the men’s doubles and mixed doubles for Wimbledon, teaming with Pierre-Hughes Herbert and Serena Williams, respectively. Murray and Herbert lost in the second round of the men’s doubles, but he and Serena won their first round in mixed. Regardless of the outcome, it’s amazing to see such great players partnered up. Best of luck to them for the rest of the tournament.

Predictions

-For the men, it’s just too hard to see Djokovic losing at the moment, though Nadal is my solid second favorite. Nadal will beat Federer in a four-set semifinal, and in the final Djokovic wins 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

-Barty is playing so well at the moment. I back her to ride the momentum to her first slam title. Dark horses: Gauff, Serena, and Elina Svitolina.

-For the mixed doubles, I’ll go with Murray and Serena. Why not? What a story it would be.

The Gaping Hole in the Rivalry: Why Have Federer and Nadal Never Met at the U.S. Open?

By Owen Lewis

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal make up arguably the most influential and popular rivalry in tennis. They have faced off four times at the Australian Open, six times at the French Open, and three times at Wimbledon. But in the 15 years since they first played each other, the pair have never clashed at Flushing Meadows. Let’s take a look at the near misses.

2008: Federer was the four-time defending champion going into the 2008 U.S. Open, while Nadal had yet to progress past the quarterfinals. Federer beat a 21-year-old Novak Djokovic in a four set semifinal, but Nadal lost to Andy Murray in the other semi: 6-2, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4. Federer went on to win the tournament with an emphatic straight-sets win over Murray.

2009: Federer and Nadal both made the semifinals, as the top two seeds. Federer beat Djokovic 7-6 (3), 7-5, 7-5, hitting his famous crosscourt “tweener” in the last game. Nadal was topped handily by Juan Martín del Potro, though, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. Del Potro then shocked Federer in a five-set final, becoming the first man to beat both Federer and Nadal in a Grand Slam.

2010: This time, the dream matchup was prevented by just one point. Nadal, the No. 1 seed, stormed to the final without dropping a set. His opponent was determined by a Djokovic-Federer semifinal, and it was a five-set thriller. With Djokovic serving to stay in the match at 4-5 in the fifth set, Federer produced two match points, but Djokovic erased both with forehand winners. Federer dropped his serve at 5-5, then missed a break point with Djokovic serving for the match at 6-5. Nadal went on to complete his career grand slam with a four-set victory over Djokovic: 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

2011: Once again, a Federer-Nadal final was barred by one point. In a near-mirror image of the 2010 tournament, Nadal made the final on his side of the bracket, with Djokovic and Federer contesting for the other spot. Djokovic forced a fifth set after being down two sets, and with Federer serving for the match at 5-3, 40-15, hit a crosscourt return winner. At 40-30, Federer missed a makeable forehand, and Djokovic reeled off four straight games to take the fifth set 7-5. In the final, Nadal fought valiantly, but Djokovic produced a masterclass, winning 6-2, 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-1 in a match that lasted for over four hours.

2013: With Federer seeded 7th, his lowest ranking in years, he was slated to play 2nd-ranked Nadal in the quarterfinals. Federer played Spaniard Tommy Robredo in the fourth round, with the winner earning a clash with Nadal. Federer had won all of the ten matches he and Robredo had played, but the Spaniard shockingly won in straight sets: 7-6 (3), 6-3, 6-4. Nadal crushed Robredo in the quarters, and went on to beat Djokovic in a four-set final to claim his second U.S. Open.

2017: Nadal and Federer were slated to meet in the semifinals, as the 1st and 3rd seeds respectively. Federer was shaky in his opening rounds, needing five sets to dispatch his first and second round opponents. Still, he made the quarterfinals. His opponent? His old nemesis from the 2009 U.S. Open, Juan Martín del Potro. The first two sets were shared, and in a fierce third set tiebreak Federer missed four set points, eventually losing the breaker 10-8. Del Potro then grabbed the fourth set 6-4 to earn a semifinal berth against Nadal. The top seed beat del Potro in four sets and earned the title with a flawless performance against Kevin Anderson in the final.

-So, there has yet to be a Federer-Nadal matchup at the U.S. Open. They are both in their 30s, so time is definitely running out for such a clash. Still, Nadal is currently No. 2, and Federer No. 3. As of now, neither player is going anywhere.

Questions? Email me at owenlewis11801@gmail.com or tweet me @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!

Ranking Rafael Nadal’s 19 Grand Slam Titles

By Owen Lewis

Note: I wrote this article after Nadal won Roland-Garros for a twelfth time in May 2019, and have updated it to include his U.S. Open victory as well.
With his 12th win at Roland-Garros, Nadal now has 18 Grand Slam titles. Let’s take a look at which ones were the most meaningful and/or important to the Spaniard’s legacy. I tried to find an article on this topic, but couldn’t find one and decided to give my take on it. I hope any and all readers enjoy this article and you can email me with questions: owenlewis11801@gmail.com

19. 2008 Roland-Garros

Nadal stormed through the draw at the 2008 French Open, with a huge number of 6-1 and 6-0 sets, culminating with a straight-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals and a 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 demolishing of Roger Federer in the final. This was the Spaniard’s fourth straight title at Roland-Garros, extending his success on clay. The victory likely gave Nadal a confidence boost heading into the 2008 Wimbledon, a win that is much higher on the list, but the sheer lopsidedness of Nadal’s wins in the 2008 French Open earn it the lowest spot on this list.

18. 2007 Roland-Garros

Nadal beat Djokovic and Federer on his way to his third French Open title, only dropping one set in the final to Federer. This win wasn’t particularly surprising, though- Nadal had consolidated his dominance on clay the two previous years, and was the favorite to win the French Open for the third year in a row.

17. 2018 Roland-Garros

Back at the top of the rankings, the Spaniard dropped just one set to Diego Schwartzman in the quarterfinals, topping Dominic Thiem in the final in straight sets. This was just one of two French Open victories where Nadal did not fall back onto his back after the final point (with the other being 2008, another straight-sets final), and his 11th French Open title overall.

16. 2011 Roland-Garros

Shockingly, American John Isner pushed Nadal to five sets in the opening round, winning a pair of tiebreaks to open up a two sets to one lead. The match was the first time Nadal had even played a fifth set at Roland-Garros (which he won 6-4). He didn’t drop another set until the final, and held off Andy Murray in a tough straight-sets semifinal. He beat Federer in the final 7-5, 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-1, saving a set point in the first set and holding from love-40 down to open the fourth set.

15. 2017 U.S. Open

After a disappointing loss to Gilles Muller in the fourth round of Wimbledon, Nadal won the U.S. Open at Flushing Meadows, New York. He got off to a bit of a slow start, dropping a set in the second and third round, but played his best at the end of the tournament. In the semifinals, he crushed Juan Martin del Potro after losing the first set, 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2. He then topped 28th-ranked Kevin Anderson in the final in straight sets. Overall, the Spaniard wasn’t really pushed during the tournament, and claimed his 16th slam title and his third U.S. Open.

14. 2012 Roland-Garros

Nadal won a tough four-set final against Djokovic, surpassing Bjorn Borg’s record of six French Open titles. The set was the only one he dropped all tournament, serving up constant 6-0, 6-1, and 6-2 sets. The title was his third straight French Open, and snapped a streak of three straight grand slam final losses to Djokovic. For those reasons, this French Open win was among his more meaningful titles in Paris.

13. 2006 Roland-Garros

Defending a title always shows a champion’s mettle, and Nadal showed the world he wasn’t going away by claiming his second French Open title. He beat Federer in the final losing a lopsided first set but winning the next three, hitting a superbly angled swing volley winner on match point. This was also a likely source of confidence as he made his first Wimbledon final a month later.

12. 2014 Roland-Garros

This win marked Nadal’s fifth straight French Open. The victory was meaningful for another reason though- after winning the U.S. Open in 2013, he entered the 2014 Australian Open as the top seed and stormed to the final, a heavy favorite against 8th-seeded Stan Wawrinka. Nadal hurt his back in the warmup, and though he didn’t retire, his game was crippled (though he somehow won a set, losing 3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6). It was a hugely emotional loss, and winning at Roland-Garros probably erased some of the pain. In the final, he came from a set down to beat Djokovic at the French Open for the third straight year.

11. 2019 Roland Garros

As with the 2012 French Open, Djokovic had won the three majors prior to the event. He’d beaten Nadal in the 2018 Wimbledon semis and the final of the 2019 Australian Open, and some picked him as the favorite over Nadal to win. To complicate things further, Nadal had lost more than usual in the clay season, with surprising losses to Thiem, Fabio Fognini, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. He had also suffered a knee injury after Indian Wells. But the Spaniard entered the event healthy, dropping just one set on his way to the final. He then took revenge on Thiem (who had beaten Djokovic in a five-set semifinal) 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1, not giving his younger opponent a chance after the second set. Nadal cried for a while after and was extremely emotional, revealing that his knee injury was not only physically restricting but mentally draining.

10. 2010 Roland-Garros

This was the first time since 2005 that Nadal did not go into the tournament as defending champion. Robin Soderling had handed him his first-ever loss at the French Open in 2009, and Nadal ripped through the draw with a vengeance. He got his revenge over Soderling in the final, winning in straight sets. After the first time his trophy had been ripped away from him, he quickly got it back- truly an emotional win.

9. 2017 Roland-Garros

The 2017 win ranks this high simply for emotional reasons. Nadal did not drop a set on his way to his tenth French Open, losing just six games to Wawrinka in the final. After losing for the first time in years in Paris in 2015, and pulling out of the 2016 event with an injury, this win had to be among Nadal’s most emotional ever. He’d lost a brutal five-set final to Federer in the final of the 2017 Australian Open, losing a break advantage in the fifth set, and this slam probably let him relax a bit- it was his first major since the 2014 French Open, and showed others and himself that he wasn’t done yet.

8. 2010 Wimbledon

This is one of the first non-French Open slams on the list, and therefore among the least meaningful of his slam wins outside Paris. In the final Nadal faced Tomas Berdych, who had beaten both Federer and Djokovic, in the quarters and semis respectively. Rafa won in straight sets, ending with a gorgeous crosscourt forehand passing shot. It wasn’t all easy though- Nadal had to come back from two sets to one down in both the second and third rounds. The title was Nadal’s second Wimbledon and the second of three slams he would win that year.

7. 2013 Roland-Garros

This win earns the number 7 spot because of one match- Nadal’s semifinal with top-ranked Djokovic. This is the only time, in my opinion, that a prime Rafael Nadal had been pushed all the way at the French Open. Djokovic broke Nadal when he served for the match in the fourth set, won a fourth-set tiebreak, and broke at the start of the fifth, only to see Nadal claw back and win 9-7 to cap a marathon match (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (3), 9-7). He then went on to beat his countryman David Ferrer in straight sets in the final. Back to the Djokovic match, though- Nadal was down a break for much of the fifth set- with his opponent serving at 4-3 and deuce, Djokovic forced the court open, eventually putting away an angled volley. The only problem? He stumbled into the net, automatically forfeiting the point. So instead of ad-Djokovic, it became break point. Nadal missed that chance to break, but grabbed the next one to even the set at 4-4. That volley is regarded as one of the turning points of tennis history. With all respect to Ferrer, the semifinal between Nadal and Djokovic was very likely to produce the winner of the tournament. To date, Djokovic has won just one French Open title- had he not run into the net, he could have won the match. The rest could have been history.

6. 2019 U.S. Open

Nadal reached the final of this slam without much difficulty, dropping one set to Marin Cilic in the fourth round before upping his game and dominating the Croat for the remainder of the match. In the final, Rafa clashed with a red-hot Daniil Medvedev in a near five-hour, five-set epic. Nadal took a two set lead, and had opportunities to win the third, but Medvedev adjusted beautifully, and looked the stronger player at the start of the fifth. Nadal repelled three break points at 0-1 in the decider, and when serving for the match at 5-4, 30-40, played a beautiful three-point sequence: he saved the break point with a vicious inside-out forehand that forced a error, reached championship point with a drop shot winner, and won the title with a 124 mph ace down the tee that Medvedev couldn’t handle. Nadal had been up a double break, and missed two championship points on Medvedev’s serve at 5-3 in the fifth. When break point down at 5-4, it seemed that he had lost the momentum and might be about to face a devastating loss. But Nadal’s best tennis kicked in when he was under the most pressure, and he won his 19th slam under the lights in New York. This slam pulled him within one of Federer’s all-time men’s record of 20.

5. 2005 Roland-Garros

A player’s first slam is always among the most emotional. I was surprised myself while making this list at how low I ranked this one- more of a tribute to Nadal’s hardest fought slam wins than anything else. Still, this could probably be ranked a few spots higher. Nadal, though he turned just 19 in the middle of the tournament, was made the favorite by the bookies after he dominated the pre-French Open clay season. The miracle teenager delivered, toppling world No. 1 Federer in the semis and coming from a set down to beat Mariano Puerta in the final. This was the tournament that a scrappy tennis player from Manacor truly introduced himself to even the most casual tennis fan, and one that will surely live long in his memory.

4. 2013 U.S. Open

Nadal hadn’t won a slam off the clay since 2010. But at the 2013 U.S. Open, Nadal dropped just one set on his way to the final. His opponent? Novak Djokovic, who had made the semifinals or better at the U.S. Open each year since 2007. The Spaniard played a brilliant match, however. He won a lopsided first set 6-2, but Djokovic hit back, winning the second set 6-3 and going up 2-0 in the third set. Nadal saved a break point to avoid going down two breaks, though, and evened the set quickly. Then, at 4-4, Nadal fell behind love-40 on serve. He saved the first break point with a brilliant forehand winner, the second when Djokovic missed after a long rally, and the third with a 125 mph ace, his first of the match. Then, returning at 5-4 up, Nadal won a fantastic point with Djokovic up 30-love. Djokovic (from Serbia) then missed two regulation ground strokes, setting up a set point for Nadal. Throughout the rally (over 15 shots) Djokovic only let Nadal see two forehands. On the second, the Spaniard ripped the ball up the line, and Djokovic hit long. The fourth set was a formality, with Nadal winning 6-1. As stated before, the win was the first slam Nadal had claimed off the clay in years, showing again that he is an all-surface player. He also avenged his defeat to Djokovic in the 2011 U.S. Open final. Overall, a huge win and confidence boost for Nadal, who would have a brilliant start to 2014.

3. 2010 U.S. Open

Nadal completed his career grand slam with this title, easily making it among his most emotional slam wins. He also improved his serve dramatically before the tournament, serving up to 135 mph during the two weeks and getting many more free points than usual. Entering the tournament as the top seed, Nadal made the final without dropping a set and then delivered a masterclass against Djokovic, hitting his backhand and serve brutally well. This victory completed the Spaniard’s career grand slam, joining a select group of just Federer and Andre Agassi in the Open Era to achieve the feat.

2. 2009 Australian Open

This could easily take the No. 1 spot, but the 2008 Wimbledon just edges it out. Nadal had taken the top spot in the rankings by 2009, but still hadn’t claimed a slam on hard court. This remains Nadal’s only Australian Open title, so this tournament is extremely crucial to his legacy. The Spaniard cruised to the semifinals, where he ran into 14th seed and countryman Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco played unbelievably well, hitting an astonishing 95 winners. He still lost the match. Nadal won 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (2), 6-7 (1), 6-4 in five hours and 14 minutes. After the incredibly physical match, Nadal had to play Roger Federer in the final, and he states in his autobiography Rafa that he expected to lose 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 to his great rival. But Nadal recovered to win another punishing five-setter (in four hours this time) 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-2. This may be the hardest Nadal has had to fight to win a slam, and has to be a treasured title to the Spaniard.

1. 2008 Wimbledon

Nadal had been the No. 2 seed for three years. He had lost to Federer, world number one and the winner of the past five Wimbledons, in the final of the 2006 and 2007 Championships. Nadal and Federer stormed to the final, and what would follow went down in the minds of many as the greatest match ever. Nadal came out playing brilliantly, winning the first two sets by identical 6-4 scores. Federer fought back to win the third set 7-6 (5), hitting four aces in the tiebreak. The fourth set also went to a tiebreak, and Nadal went up 5-2 before letting his rival back into the breaker with a double fault and a missed backhand. He had a match point at 7-6, but Federer erased it with a huge serve. After hitting a spectacular passing shot down the line, he had another match point at 8-7. Federer erased it with a brutally precise backhand passing shot down the line. Federer then took the tiebreak 10-8 to push the match into a fifth set. Down 3-4 in the deciding set, Nadal faced a break point at 30-40, and saved it with nerveless aggressive tennis, pounding an overhead into the seats. He then broke Federer’s serve for the first time since the second set, going up 8-7. Nadal then survived deuce to serve out the match, sealing a famous win: 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-7 (8), 9-7. The victory is a huge turning point in tennis history. The No. 2 dethroning the No. 1. Nadal developing into an all-court player. Nadal moving towards the number one ranking. This match is one of Nadal’s best matches and most emotional wins, while being perhaps Federer’s most devastating loss. Overall, the only place for the 2008 Wimbledon is the top spot in the rankings.

Disagree with the order or have other feedback? Email me or tweet @tennisnation. Thanks for reading!

Eight Years on From Their Last Meeting, Nadal Still Has the Edge Over Federer at Roland-Garros

By Owen Lewis

This year’s French Open has had no shortage of great storylines and matches.  Stan Wawrinka topped Stefanos Tsitsipas in five sets and five hours, crowd hero Nicolas Mahut went on a dream run to the third round, and an upset-riddled women’s draw resulted in two teenagers in the semifinals.  The men’s draw featured remarkably few upsets of the top players, in stark contrast with the women’s, which saw the top four all eliminated before the semifinals. In fact, for the first time in a major since the French Open in 2011, the top four men’s players all made it to the semifinals.  Top-ranked Novak Djokovic and No. 4 Dominic Thiem faced off on one side of the draw, with No. 2 Rafael Nadal and No. 3 Roger Federer comprising a dream matchup on the other side of the draw.

Federer, who beat Wawrinka in four sets in the quarterfinals, was playing his first French Open since 2015, but had only lost one set prior to the semifinal with Nadal.  Despite his 15-23 head-to-head against his 33-year-old rival, Federer had won the last five matches, with Nadal’s last win coming in early 2014. However, the history of their rivalry at the French Open is nothing short of daunting to Federer.  The pair have faced off five times at the major, in one semifinal and four finals, with Nadal the winner each time. Federer, a 20-time major winner from Switzerland, has never even pushed his rival to five sets (losing once in a lopsided straight-sets match and four times in four sets).  This is not without reason. On clay, the ball can bounce higher than on other surfaces. Nadal is a lefty, and hits his forehand with vicious topspin, causing the ball to kick up extremely high. Federer, a righty, plays with a one-handed backhand. Nadal often hits crosscourt forehands to his rival’s backhand, forcing Federer to hit his one-hander up around shoulder or neck level.  This results in short balls, shanked shots, or impatient errors from Federer. Nadal doesn’t just hit crosscourt forehands, though- he can rip it inside out or down the line, constantly keeping his opponent off balance. His defensive game is also incredible, paralleled perhaps only by Novak Djokovic. These factors have brought Nadal the highest honors on clay- he is widely considered the greatest clay-courter ever, with eleven French Open titles (his lifetime record at Roland Garros was, prior to this match, 90-2).  Any opponent up against the “King of Clay” has their work cut out for them, but the lefty-righty matchup accentuates Federer’s difficulties.  

So although Nadal, the two-time defending champion, was made a heavy favorite, many expected Federer to win at least a set- he switched to a larger racket in 2014, and has improved his backhand since their last French Open matchup in the 2011 final (which Nadal won 7-5, 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-1).  This match was the 39th meeting between the two longtime rivals, with Nadal leading 23-15 (and 13-2 on clay). At around 1:00 on a windy day in Paris, the match begun.

Nadal served to open the semifinal, and Federer was quick to establish himself, hitting a brutal angled backhand winner to set up an early break point.  It was quickly erased with a strong wide serve from Nadal, and he would go on to hold. He then broke Federer in the next game, following it up with an easy hold for 3-0.  The Swiss got on the board in the next game, hitting two aces and a forehand winner. He then managed to break back, but the next game, with Federer serving at 2-3, would prove the decisive one of the set.  Federer fought off five break points, having advantage point himself only once (which he lost with a volley battle at the net). Nadal finally broke through on the sixth break point, and the rest of the set went with serve- the Spaniard hit a bullet of a crosscourt backhand winner on set point: 6-3 Nadal.  

Federer held to start the second set, and forced 15-40 on Nadal’s serve in the following game.  A missed return saw the first opportunity go begging, but Nadal hit a backhand well wide on the second, giving Federer a 2-0 lead and delighting the Parisian crowd.  Nadal jumped to a 15-40 lead on Federer’s serve, threatening to quickly break back. The Swiss saved both break points, and was one point away from a 3-0 lead, but Nadal fought back to deuce with a forehand winner down the line.  A Federer unforced error brought up another break point- it looked like the danger would be averted when Federer pushed Nadal around the court, setting up an overhead. But the Spaniard ran down the smash and hit a preposterous curling forehand winner down the line to break back.  The next several games went with serve, with Federer threatening to break through at 4-3: with Nadal serving, the Swiss reached 30-all and deuce, but Nadal fought him off with some clutch passing shots. At 4-4, Federer stormed into a 40-love lead, but some loose errors helped Nadal back to deuce, and the Spaniard was ruthless from that point on, hitting a beautiful forehand down the line and a reflex volley to break.  Serving for the set, Nadal held to love to seal the set 6-4. Federer would rue his missed opportunities in this set, as it was the most competitive set of the match.

In the third set, Nadal’s level reached the stratosphere.  Federer begun serving, opening up a 30-love lead, but the clay-court dynamo rebounded with three consecutive forehand winners.  Federer saved the break point and held serve, but the tone had been established for the set. Nadal held easily, then broke Federer’s serve at 1-all with a passing shot that clipped the net tape.  His opponent, who is nearly always calm and collected, swatted a ball into the stands out of frustration. The Spaniard hit two aces in the next game, holding for 3-1, then broke Federer once again, hitting a ridiculous forehand pass on break point.  Serving for the match at 5-2, Nadal missed his first match point when a Federer return was too much to handle, but took his second to log a comfortable 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 win over his great rival.

The other semifinal, Djokovic vs. Thiem, was suspended because of severe weather midway through the match.  Thiem, a 25-year-old Austrian heralded as the heir to Nadal’s clay throne, took the first set off the world No. 1 6-2, doing a fantastic job winning his service points.  A rain delay midway through the second set seemed to jumpstart Djokovic’s game, and the match was soon leveled at one set all. Thiem, though, the losing finalist at Roland Garros last year, showed his mettle at the start of the third set, breaking for a 3-1 lead.  The match was suspended from there, and will resume at 6 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow (6/8). Djokovic will have to come from behind tomorrow in order to keep his Grand Slam winning streak alive (he has won the last three majors: Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year, and the Australian Open in January), but even if he does, a seemingly immovable force will be waiting for him in the final: Rafael Nadal, the King of Clay.